AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 04.09 07:16
Top Undervalued
+26.3¢
70-71°F(Yes)
+18¢
74-75°F(No)
+17.8¢
76-77°F(No)
Highest temperature in NYC on April 13? AI analysis: • +26.3¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data for New York (including LaGuardia Airport, KLGA) on April ...
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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
70-71°F
YesNo
8.65¢
91.35¢
35¢
65¢
+26.3¢
0¢
74-75°F
YesNo
26¢
74¢
8¢
92¢
0¢
+18¢
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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Predicting the exact highest temperature for a specific city on a given day is a classic niche weather market. While not as mainstream as elections, it is quite common among weather bettors and not extremely bizarre.
Divergence
Current Polymarket prices imply that the highest temperature is most likely to fall in the 76-77°F (approx. 24.5%) and 74-75°F (approx. 22.5%) ranges. However, the latest forecasts for April 13 in New York from mainstream weather platforms (such as The Weather Channel and news weather networks) converge on a high of around 71°F to 72°F. This indicates that prediction market participants might still be relying on older, warmer weather models or have not yet adjusted their positions to reflect the latest forecasts, resulting in a significant divergence [2, 14, 17, 20].