[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place' event on Polymarket, focusing on the implied probabilities of the '3rd-6th place tier' candidates (specifically Wolfgang Grozo, Carlos Álvarez, César Acuña, and Alfonso López Chau). Compare these odds against the vote margins in the most recent late-March polls from Datum, IEP, and Ipsos to determine if the market correctly prices the statistical tie/margin of error for the 4th spot.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place' event on Polymarket, focusing on the implied probabilities of the '3rd-6th place tier' candidates (specifically Wolfgang Grozo, Carlos Álvarez, César Acuña, and Alfonso López Chau). Compare these odds against the vote margins in the most recent late-March polls from Datum, IEP, and Ipsos to determine if the market correctly prices the statistical tie/margin of error for the 4th spot.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key 'Simulacro' (Mock Ballot) Data Check: Search for the latest 'Simulacro de Votación' (Mock Ballot) results from major pollsters like Ipsos Peru, Datum, or CPI, rather than standard opinion polls. Since this market resolves based on 'Valid Votes', and Mock Ballots better predict valid vote distribution by excluding blank/null votes, verify the exact percentage gap between the 4th and 5th place candidates in these specific reports to confirm if the lead is statistically significant.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Key 'Simulacro' (Mock Ballot) Data Check: Search for the latest 'Simulacro de Votación' (Mock Ballot) results from major pollsters like Ipsos Peru, Datum, or CPI, rather than standard opinion polls. Since this market resolves based on 'Valid Votes', and Mock Ballots better predict valid vote distribution by excluding blank/null votes, verify the exact percentage gap between the 4th and 5th place candidates in these specific reports to confirm if the lead is statistically significant.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Candidate Momentum & Volatility Catalyst Analysis: Analyze the polling trend over the last two weeks specifically for the cluster of candidates fighting for the 4th position (primarily Wolfgang Grozo, Carlos Álvarez, and César Acuña). Determine if Wolfgang Grozo's recent rise in polls is sustainable or a social media bubble, and check for any breaking scandals or gaffes affecting César Acuña or Carlos Álvarez that could act as a catalyst to shift the ranking order for the #4 spot.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Candidate Momentum & Volatility Catalyst Analysis: Analyze the polling trend over the last two weeks specifically for the cluster of candidates fighting for the 4th position (primarily Wolfgang Grozo, Carlos Álvarez, and César Acuña). Determine if Wolfgang Grozo's recent rise in polls is sustainable or a social media bubble, and check for any breaking scandals or gaffes affecting César Acuña or Carlos Álvarez that could act as a catalyst to shift the ranking order for the #4 spot.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Elections|$1 Vol|

22 days 1 hrs

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place - AI Found +48.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 6 hours ago

Top Undervalued

+48.5¢

Vladimir Cerrón(No)

+48.5¢

Enrique Valderrama(No)

+48.5¢

Fiorella Molinelli(No)

Peru Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place AI analysis: • +48.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest polls from March 2026 (Datum, Ipsos, IEP), the battle for 4th place in the P...

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Vladimir Cerrón

YesNo

49.5¢

50.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+48.5¢

Enrique Valderrama

YesNo

49.5¢

50.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+48.5¢

Expand to view all 23 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

This is an unconventional political derivative market. Most attention focuses on the winner or the top two candidates entering a runoff. Predicting the '4th place' finisher is a high-difficulty long-tail bet, especially in Peru's highly fragmented political landscape where the vote margin between 3rd and 6th place is often razor-thin, introducing high randomness.

Divergence

Extreme divergence. The prediction market implies a ~40-50% probability for every candidate to finish 4th (total probability >1000%), which is statistically impossible. Mainstream polls (Datum, Ipsos) clearly show tiered support: Fujimori and Aliaga lead (>10%), while Acuña, Álvarez, López Chau, and Grozo fight for 3rd-6th place at around 5%. The market fails to reflect this reality entirely.