What price will Bitcoin hit on March 21?
Crypto|$37.0k Vol|
time20 hrs 26 mins

What price will Bitcoin hit on March 21? - AI Found +30.8¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+30.8¢
↓ 69,000(Yes)
+29.8¢
↓ 70,000(Yes)
+16.9¢
↑ 72,000(Yes)

What price will Bitcoin hit on March 21? AI analysis: • +30.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Which artists will have #1 hits in April?
Culture|$39.2k Vol|
time39 days 16 hrs

Which artists will have #1 hits in April?

Top Undervalued
+53¢
Kanye West(Yes)
+31.5¢
Olivia Dean(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market exhibits extreme pricing inefficiency. Kanye West is confirmed to release 'Bully' on Marc...
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Rule Risk
Moderate risk exists. The key lies in the definition of 'Primary Artist'. The rules explicitly exclude features or collaborations under another profile, but music crediting is complex (e.g., 'Artist A & Artist B' joint billing vs. '(feat. Artist B)'). Usually, Spotify treats joint billing as Primary for both, but features do not count. Additionally, the market relies on the Spotify Global chart, and time zone differences (ET specified) for chart updates could cause disputes on the last day of the month.
Exotics
Moderate novelty. While music chart prediction is part of pop culture, this is a specific niche market not followed by everyone. It is more niche than election forecasting but more mainstream than pure random trivia, given it involves globally renowned artists.
Divergence
Mainstream music critics and streaming analysts widely expect Kanye West's new album (March 27) to debut at #1 globally. However, the prediction market only assigns a 32% probability, suggesting it is overpricing the tail risk of a delay or cancellation while ignoring his fundamental streaming dominance. This gap presents a significant long opportunity.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and spread for top contenders like Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift. Combine this with the current Spotify Global Top 50 status to update the fair value assessment and identify potential arbitrage opportunities for an April #1 hit.
Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?
Geopolitics|$40.1k Vol|
time9 days 16 hrs

Nicolas Sarkozy in jail by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.7¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Sarkozy's appeal trial for the Libyan financing case began on March 16, 2026, and is scheduled to ru...
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Rule Risk
The explicit exclusion of 'house arrest' is the primary risk factor. While Sarkozy has been sentenced, French law often allows sentences to be served under electronic monitoring at home. Headlines might state he is 'serving time,' but if it is via an electronic tag at home, the market resolves 'No,' conflicting with the lay intuition of a conviction. The distinction between physical confinement in jail/prison and home detention is critical.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth, bid-ask spread, and user discussions for the 'Sarkozy March 2026 Jail' event. Combine this with the latest French legal news as of March 1, 2026, to update the assessment of fair value regarding the likelihood of Sarkozy's imprisonment.
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 21?
Weather|$31.8k Vol|
time4 hrs 26 mins

Highest temperature in Taipei on March 21?

Top Undervalued
+50.8¢
22°C(No)
+11¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest Taipei CWA official forecast for March 21 (Cloudy, 18-22°C), fair value must be ...
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Movers
March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the 21°C option experienced a roller-coaster ride, spiking from 25c to 42c in the afternoon before plunging back to 28.5c overnight; concurrently, the 22°C option moved inversely (40.5c -> 48c). The reason was a brief market panic regarding potential cooling from cloud cover (triggered by updated forecasts), but liquidity subsequently consolidated back to the official forecast upper bound (22°C) as the most probable outcome nearing resolution.
Divergence
The main divergence lies in the probability of a 'breakout high'. Market pricing currently implies a ~23% chance of temperatures reaching 23°C or higher, which is significantly above what the official forecast suggests. With CWA explicitly forecasting a high of 22°C with clouds, it is meteorologically difficult to exceed the cap significantly, indicating irrational 'bullish' sentiment in the market.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest meteorological data, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book given the extremely low liquidity (Volume: $50), and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks for each temperature range based on user discussions.
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21?
Weather|$188.4k Vol|
time4 hrs 26 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21?

Top Undervalued
+19.5¢
6°C or higher(Yes)
+13.5¢
4°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market sell-off of '6°C or higher' (~20c) appears to be an overreaction to Environment Canada's ...
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Movers
March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '6°C or higher' crashed from 66c to 17c, while '5°C' surged from 14c to 43c and '4°C' rose from 10c to 33.5c. The driver was Environment Canada and The Weather Network issuing warnings of a 'return to winter' for Saturday, with forecasts of freezing rain and cooler temps, prompting the market to aggressively downgrade high-temperature expectations. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '6°C or higher' rallied from 26c to 66c as early models briefly indicated a warm front would bring temperatures nearing 9°C.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market is pricing '6°C or higher' extremely low (~20%), whereas the official resolution source, Wunderground, currently forecasts a high of 43°F (~6.1°C) for March 21. Additionally, Insauga (citing Environment Canada) reports a forecast of 6°C. The market appears to be overly focused on pessimistic text summaries from The Weather Network (3°C) or CP24's 5°C report, ignoring the specific data from the resolution source itself.
AI Analysis
Visit the Polymarket page for 'Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21' to analyze the thin order book (given the ~$5 volume) and current spread, and assess the fair value based on immediate weather fundamental data vs. the current odds.
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 21?
Weather|$61.7k Vol|
time4 hrs 26 mins

Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 21?

Top Undervalued
+16.5¢
10°C(Yes)
+15.5¢
12°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
On the resolution day (March 21), the latest Google/Weather.com forecast (parent data source for Wun...
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Movers
March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '12°C' plummeted from 34c to 20.5c, as weather models corrected earlier warmer expectations closer to resolution, with mainstream forecasts pointing firmly to the 10-11°C range, collapsing the premium on 12°C. March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '11°C' climbed steadily from ~26c to 40c, as the market consolidated around it as the perceived safe 'median' outcome, despite fresh data favoring 10°C. March 17, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '14°C or higher' crashed from 27c to ~3c, as weather models firmly ruled out the warm front scenario, confirming a cooler weather pattern.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Wunderground/The Weather Channel (parent of resolution source) explicitly forecasts a high of 10°C for March 21, whereas the prediction market's favorite is 11°C (40%), and 12°C (20%) is also priced significantly higher than its probability. The market is skewed warmer, lagging behind the latest 10°C forecast data.
AI Analysis
[Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment] Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the meager order book (only $55.3 volume), combine it with the latest temperature forecasts for Warsaw on March 21st from Wunderground and major weather models (ECMWF/GFS), and reassess the fair value and liquidity risk of each temperature option.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ 69,000
YesNo
4.5¢
95.5¢
35.3¢
64.7¢
+30.8¢
0¢
↓ 70,000
YesNo
36¢
70¢
65.8¢
34.2¢
+29.8¢
0¢

Expand to view all 16 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0020, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Positive Factor 2: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0030, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0020, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0150, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 3: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0240, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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What price will Bitcoin hit on March 21? - AI Found +30.8¢ Mispricing