What price will Solana hit on March 21?
Crypto|$14.1k Vol|
time1 hrs 59 mins

What price will Solana hit on March 21? - AI Found +20.1¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+20.1¢
↓ 85(Yes)
+1.2¢
↓ 80(Yes)
+1.2¢
↓ 80(No)

What price will Solana hit on March 21? AI analysis: • +20.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Elon Musk # tweets March 21 - March 23, 2026?
Culture|$802.4k Vol|
time1 days 13 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets March 21 - March 23, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+4¢
90-114(Yes)
+4¢
65-89(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current market trends and Elon Musk's historical behavioral patterns, we maintain the 'high...
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Rule Risk
There are subtle risks: 1. 'Replies' usually don't count, but do if they appear on the 'Main Feed'. This distinction relies on X's algorithm and the tracker's specific capture logic, creating potential edge case disputes. 2. Deleted posts count if captured (approx. 5 mins window), allowing Musk to potentially manipulate the count via 'tweet and delete'. 3. Reliance on a specific third-party tool (xtracker) introduces technical dependency risk.
Exotics
This is a classic Novelty market. While Musk's tweets are widely followed, betting on the exact volume of his output within a specific 48-hour window is a niche and highly stochastic wager, distinct from mainstream economic or political questions.
Movers
March 20 - March 22, 2026: The price of the '90-114' option rose continuously from 22c to 42c, establishing itself as the new core consensus range, reflecting traders' confirmation that Musk has entered a high-frequency response mode regarding the legal verdict. March 19 - March 21, 2026: The price of the '115-139' option surged from 7c to 23.5c and then stabilized around 27c. The legal liability verdict shifted market expectations toward a 'high-frequency reposting' mode, turning this previously unlikely high-volume range into a prime hedging target. March 19 - March 21, 2026: The price of the '40-64' option crashed from 29c to 5.5c. Traders realized that with the dual catalysts of major legal news and a weekend space launch, the probability of Musk maintaining a 'standard' posting frequency (20-30 non-replies/day) is near zero.
AI Analysis
Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the latest order book for 'Elon Musk # tweets March 21 - March 23'. Given the low trading volume (~$3,000), assess the bid-ask spread and depth for core ranges (e.g., 90-114, 115-139) and compare them with live data from xtracker.polymarket.com to determine if the odds reasonably reflect his current posting velocity or if there is mispricing due to illiquidity.
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 23?
Weather|$121.4k Vol|
time1 days 9 hrs

Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 23?

Top Undervalued
+10¢
13°C(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
2¢
Arbitrage
600%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No 11°C' Plan Description: Current consensus forecasts (14°C-16°C) are significantly above 11°C, providing a safe buffer even w...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Although the market aggressively pivoted to 16°C on the evening of March 21 (surging from 7¢ to 27¢)...
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Movers
March 21, 2026: The price of '16°C' skyrocketed from 7¢ to 27¢, reflecting the market's dramatic reaction to evening weather model updates or local reports suggesting significantly higher temperatures than previously expected. March 21, 2026: The price of '15°C' retraced from 39¢ to 25.5¢, and '13°C' slid further from 16.5¢ to 13¢, indicating capital is rapidly rotating out of conservative/moderate options to chase the warmer 16°C+ outcomes.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market currently favors 16°C (27¢), whereas authoritative source AccuWeather forecasts 58°F (14.4°C), a gap of nearly 2°C. The market appears to be 'front-running' warm data that has not yet been reflected in the primary global model outputs.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page; considering the low volume of $320, analyze if the bid-ask spread is reasonable. Do the current odds accurately reflect the real probability of Warsaw's temperature on March 23 based on the latest weather models (GFS, ECMWF)?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 22?
Weather|$197.5k Vol|
time9 hrs 59 mins

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 22?

Top Undervalued
+62¢
20°C(No)
+34.9¢
19°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
It is around 11:00 AM local time on March 22 in Wellington. Current airport observations show a temp...
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Movers
On March 21, 2026, the price of '20°C' rallied from 38c to 44.5c before settling back to 38.5c, as traders bet on temperatures slightly outperforming the 19°C baseline due to fine weather. Meanwhile, '21°C' dropped from 25c to 18.5c, reflecting a realization that breaking 20°C is difficult without strong Northerly wind assistance. From March 20 to March 21, 2026, '19°C' fluctuated between 25c and 30c, indicating market hesitation between the official forecast (19°C) and the market's expectation of a slight overshoot (20°C).
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The official agency, MetService, explicitly forecasts a high of 19°C, whereas the Polymarket consensus favors 20°C (highest price). This suggests traders believe the official forecast is conservative and are betting on Wellington's potential to overshoot under sunny conditions.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest Wunderground forecast for Wellington (NZWN) on March 22, and combining this with the market's extremely low liquidity ($2.33 volume) and current order book, reassess the fair value of each temperature option (specifically the 17°C-19°C range).
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 22?
Weather|$26.3k Vol|
time9 hrs 59 mins

Highest temperature in Seattle on March 22?

Top Undervalued
+8¢
52-53°F(Yes)
+4.5¢
50-51°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Major meteorological agencies (NWS, AccuWeather, KING5) display high consensus for the high temperat...
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Movers
On March 21, 2026 (Evening), the price of 52-53°F surged from 29c to 47.5c, while 50-51°F plummeted from 38c to 25c. This sharp rotation occurred after the NWS released its afternoon forecast update, explicitly pinning tomorrow's high at 52°F. This clarity eliminated earlier market hesitation regarding a cooler outcome (50-51°F), triggering a rapid repricing toward the forecast target.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the Seattle temperature event to analyze the Order Book (considering the extremely low volume of $6) and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value against the latest NWS forecasts.
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 22?
Weather|$33.3k Vol|
time9 hrs 59 mins

Highest temperature in Madrid on March 22?

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
17°C(Yes)
+9.5¢
19°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The resolution source, Wunderground (TWC/Google data), currently forecasts a high of 64°F (~17.8°C) ...
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Movers
March 20, 2026, the price of the 19°C option surged from ~23c to 41.5c, likely due to the market overreacting to local Spanish weather sources (like ElTiempo) predicting 19°C, despite the resolution source Wunderground showing a cooling trend towards 18°C. March 19, 2026, the price of the 17°C option plunged from 25.5c to 9c, as previous bets on a cooling trend were replaced by a market reassessment favoring warmer air, causing a retracement. March 18, 2026, the 18°C option initially spiked to 31c due to a Wunderground update to 65°F, but subsequently fell back as market divergence intensified.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market is currently pricing 19°C as the clear favorite (41.5% probability), reflecting local weather sources (ElTiempo). However, the sole resolution source, Wunderground (based on TWC data), currently forecasts 64°F (17.8°C), which resolves to 18°C. Meanwhile, other major models like Meteored and AccuWeather point to 17°C. Market prices are severely disconnected from the resolution source's actual data.
AI Analysis
Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the bid-ask spread and slippage risks given the extremely low volume ($10); simultaneously, retrieve the latest weather forecast for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport (LEMD) to assess if the current odds deviate from the fair value implied by meteorological models.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ 85
YesNo
11¢
89¢
31.1¢
68.9¢
+20.1¢
0¢
↓ 80
YesNo
1.35¢
98.65¢
2.6¢
99.9¢
+1.2¢
+1.2¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0070, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0320, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Distance to Yesterday Low Ratio, -0.0080, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday support test: distance of price relative to yesterday low Negative Factor 4: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0370, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 5: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0420, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 6: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.3140, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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