Lucknow experienced severe thunderstorms and rainfall on March 21 (recording the coolest day of the ...

March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '30°C or below' surged from ~65c to 92c. The reason was the actual occurrence of thunderstorms on March 21 which caused temperatures to plummet (max ~24°C), confirming a cold and wet physical baseline that makes a rebound above 30°C the next day extremely unlikely. March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the option experienced high volatility between 45c and 65c. The reason was market uncertainty regarding the intensity and duration of the incoming Western Disturbance rainfall.

As of 09:15 AM JST on March 22, the current temperature in Tokyo is already 11°C (Sunny). The latest...

For the general public, the specific temperature of a specific city on a specific date is not a topic naturally speculated upon, making it a niche weather prediction market. While weather forecasting is common, betting on it as a specific outcome has a certain 'novelty' factor.

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of '16°C' climbed steadily from 38c to 50c, while '17°C' crashed from 20c to 11c and '15°C' retraced from 45c to 31c. The reason is that as the March 22 sunrise approached, meteorological models pinpointed the high near 16°C, ruling out previously expected warmer scenarios (17-18°C) and cooler ones (sub-15°C). March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '18°C' collapsed from 17c to 1c due to the 48-hour forecast window confirming a cooler air mass, effectively eliminating the possibility of a warm spring spike.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' on all major options (specifically 63<, 64-65, 66-67, 68-69, 70-71). The sum of all 'Yes' prices is approximately 89 cents, creating a direct arbitrage opportunity. Buying the field locks in a ~11% risk-free return. Plan Description: Market pricing is highly inefficient, with the sum of 'Yes' prices at only ~89c (vs 100c fair value)...

It is currently around 11 PM Saturday in Chicago. NWS forecasts and real-time data indicate the cold...

Weather prediction markets are a niche but stable category. For the general public, predicting the exact high temperature for a specific city on a specific day is relatively obscure compared to sports or politics, but it has a dedicated trading base (weather enthusiasts or commodity traders).

March 21 - March 22, 2026, '63°F or below' crashed from 88c to 16c, while '64-65°F' and '66-67°F' surged from single digits to 26c and 20c respectively. The reason is the confirmed delay of the cold front into Sunday morning as Saturday night progressed, making a 'Midnight High' in the mid-60s a certainty and invalidating the earlier thesis of a pre-midnight cooldown. March 20 - March 21, 2026, '63°F or below' briefly retraced, but was subsequently crushed by real-time observational data showing persistent warmth.

Divergence exists. The NWS text discussion conservatively forecasted Saturday night temperatures to hover in the 'upper 50s to low 60s', implying a similar range for the Sunday midnight high. However, the prediction market is pricing in a warmer range (64-69°F) based on real-time observations (currently ~66-67°F), effectively betting against the cooler NWS text forecast in favor of live persistency data.

The specific resolution source, Wunderground (powered by TWC), forecasts a high of 50°F (10°C) with ...

March 21-22, 2026, the price of 11°C rallied steadily from ~30c to 51c and stabilized, as the shrinking forecast window led the market consensus to rule out 13°C+ highs, consolidating capital into 11°C as the most probable 'median'. Evening of March 21, 2026, the price of 10°C retraced from a high of 27.5c to 18.5c, while 12°C rebounded from 17.5c to 23.5c, indicating late-stage market wavering with some capital betting on a last-minute model upgrade (despite the resolution source TWC holding at 50°F/10°C). March 20-21, 2026, the price of 12°C halved from 38c to 17.5c, reflecting the collapse of high-temperature expectations once the rain forecast was confirmed.

Significant divergence exists. The Polymarket currently prices 11°C as the favorite (51c), with 12°C (23.5c) trading even higher than 10°C (18.5c). However, the core resolution source, Wunderground (TWC), explicitly forecasts a high of 50°F for the airport location, which converts directly to 10°C. The market appears to be pricing based on AccuWeather (forecasting 11°C) or other models, ignoring the specific bias of the resolution source, leaving 10°C significantly undervalued.

As of 11:00 AM Hong Kong time on March 22, the real-time temperature is around 22°C and rising, whic...

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of '24°C' surged from ~32c to 56c, while '23°C' crashed from ~35c (an anomaly high) to 10c. The reason is that as the morning of March 22 progressed, real-time temperatures (hitting 22°C by 11 AM) quickly invalidated the cooler scenarios. The likelihood of the daily max stalling at 23°C dropped significantly, prompting capital to rotate into 24°C, which better aligns with the intraday warming trajectory. The previous high price for 23°C was likely an excessive hedge against rain/clouds. March 21, 2026, the price of '26°C' fell from 17c to 9c, as thick cloud cover dampened the prospects of hitting higher temperatures.