Polymarket Analytics Hub – AI Odds, Fair Value & Arbitrage Finder | PolyPredict AI

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Finance|$8 Vol|

What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?

Top Undervalued

$33,000-$36,000(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The NDX is currently trading around 24,950 (per Markets Insider). Mainstream consensus (e.g., Tradin...

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This event directly tracks the Nasdaq 100 index itself, so it has perfect correlation (score 5) with the index and its ETFs (like QQQ). If the outcome (e.g., significantly lower than expected) materializes, it implies a major structural market shift. It is also highly correlated with the S&P 500 and influenced by US Treasury yields (macro discount rates) and major constituent stocks (like NVDA).

Market pricing is completely detached from fundamentals. The prediction market implies a ~44% probability for '>$36,000', requiring a 45% rally in 9 months. This is highly unrealistic given current macro headwinds and valuation resets (mainstream forecasts target 28k-30k). This divergence is primarily driven by broken market making mechanisms and illiquidity rather than genuine sentiment.

Culture|$7 Vol|

Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?

Top Undervalued

Dolce & Gabbana(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of March 7, 2026, the market exhibits extreme irrationality and illiquidity. The sum of 'Yes' pri...

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This is a niche entertainment/gossip market. While the Met Gala is a major fashion event and a standard topic for prediction, betting on a specific celebrity's designer is a relatively narrow vertical compared to broad political or sports markets, placing it firmly in the 'novelty' category.

Severe divergence exists. Real-world consensus (fashion media, brand announcements) explicitly identifies Nicole Kidman as a Chanel ambassador, implying she should wear Chanel to the Met Gala. However, the prediction market reflects a 'random uniform distribution' pricing, even pricing unrelated brands (like D&G) higher than Chanel. This divergence stems from zero participation and lack of liquidity, rather than a reflection of true information.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the 'Nicole Kidman Met Gala 2026' market. Given the extremely low volume (~$14), analyze the bid-ask spreads for top contenders like Balenciaga and Chanel, and assess the slippage risk and opportunity cost of capital lock-up for an entry at this stage.

Elections|$6 Vol|

226 days 11 hrs

PA-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite the 2026 midterm headwinds for the GOP, incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick possesses a f...

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March 5, 2026 - March 10, 2026, the 'Democratic Party' option surged from 24.5c to 36c, an increase of 11.5c. This sharp movement broke the previous consolidation trend, likely driven by renewed speculative interest in a Democratic challenger or liquidity gaps executing through the order book, resulting in a significant short-term repricing of Democratic chances.

Significant divergence exists. The market pricing implies only a 60% win probability for the Republican, whereas mainstream political analysis and ratings (e.g., Cook's 'Likely R') typically suggest a 75%-85% probability for this seat. The market appears to be overweighting macro midterm headwinds while discounting Fitzpatrick's specific incumbent strength.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-Term Lock-up Yield Calculation: Calculate the opportunity cost for this specific trade. Since capital will be locked until November 4, 2026, compare the potential ROI of betting on the favorite (likely GOP) against the risk-free return of holding USDC in DeFi protocols (assuming ~4-5% APY) over the same period. Does the current odds offer a positive expected return after accounting for the time value of money over several years?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'PA-01 House Election Winner' event. Given the extremely low volume (approx $1.06), critically analyze the order book spread and depth: are there real market maker orders, or is it illiquid? Combine the historical Cook PVI of the PA-01 district (primarily Bucks County) and incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick's approval ratings to assess if the current bid/ask prices deviate significantly from fair value.

[Category 1: Key Players Mining] Core Candidate Status Verification: Specifically for PA-01, search for the latest statements from incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick. Has he explicitly confirmed his intent to run for re-election in 2026? Simultaneously, search for any high-profile Democratic challengers (e.g., local officials) who have announced a bid. The outcome hinges heavily on whether this moderate incumbent retires or faces a primary threat.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-Term Lock-up Yield Calculation: Calculate the opportunity cost for this specific trade. Since capital will be locked until November 4, 2026, compare the potential ROI of betting on the favorite (likely GOP) against the risk-free return of holding USDC in DeFi protocols (assuming ~4-5% APY) over the same period. Does the current odds offer a positive expected return after accounting for the time value of money over several years?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'PA-01 House Election Winner' event. Given the extremely low volume (approx $1.06), critically analyze the order book spread and depth: are there real market maker orders, or is it illiquid? Combine the historical Cook PVI of the PA-01 district (primarily Bucks County) and incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick's approval ratings to assess if the current bid/ask prices deviate significantly from fair value.

Japanese Grand Prix: Practice 3 Fastest Lap

Top Undervalued

Franco Colapinto(No)

Nico Hulkenberg(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market suffers from extreme illiquidity (volume only $5.5), resulting in severely distorted pric...

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Extreme divergence exists. Market prices imply ~45% win probability for almost every driver (sum >900%), which is physically and mathematically absurd. Mainstream sports analysis suggests only 3-4 top drivers have a realistic shot at the practice session fastest lap. This divergence is purely due to lack of liquidity and market maker participation.

[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for 'Japanese Grand Prix: Practice 3 Fastest Lap' to analyze the order book spread and depth given the extremely low volume (~$5.6), and assess whether the current odds for favorites like Verstappen or Antonelli reflect a liquidity premium or pricing error based on 2026 season practice performance trends.

196 days 15 hrs

Pro Baseball: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals

Top Undervalued

Colorado Rockies(O 65.5)

Minnesota Twins(O 80.5)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Given the absence of specific 'Listed Number of Wins' in the input data, directional fair value cann...

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Visit the Polymarket page for this event, and given the extremely low trading volume (approx. $1), analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for major teams (e.g., Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees) to assess if there is executable liquidity near fair value or just illiquid 'ghost' orders with wide spreads.

football|$5 Vol|

287 days 11 hrs

NFL: NFC East Champion

Top Undervalued

Philadelphia Eagles(Yes)

New York Giants(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Analyzing the March 2026 landscape, the Eagles, as back-to-back champions (2024/2025), maintain the ...

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Significant divergence exists. Mainstream betting odds imply an Eagles win probability of ~53.5% (-115), while the prediction market prices them at only 47%. This suggests market participants may be overweighting the historical NFC East 'no repeat winner' curse, or that low liquidity (volume: 5.0) is preventing the price from converging to fair value.

Visit the Polymarket page for the 'NFL: NFC East Champion' event to analyze the Order Book and user discussions, specifically assessing the bid-ask spreads and depth for the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, and Commanders given the negligible $5 volume, and determine if there is mispricing due to illiquidity.

Weather|$5 Vol|

Highest temperature in Austin on March 26?

Top Undervalued

100°F or higher(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on current meteorological models (GFS and ECMWF), Austin is expected to experience a heatwave ...

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Significant divergence exists. Market prices imply a 25% chance of temps exceeding 100°F and >50% chance of temps >96°F. In reality, climatological data (Wunderground/NWS) shows the all-time March record is only 98°F, and current forecast models cluster between 86-93°F. The market's pricing for extreme heat is completely detached from meteorological reality.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'Highest temperature in Austin on March 26?' event to analyze the Order Book depth (considering the extremely low volume of $5.0) and bid-ask spreads, and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risks for specific temperature ranges (e.g., 86-87°F).

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] Core News Sourcing (Weather Forecast Check): Search Wunderground and the National Weather Service (NWS) for the specific hourly forecast for 'Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station (KAUS)' on March 26, 2026, to confirm which temperature bracket the current mainstream meteorological models project the daily high will fall into (e.g., will it breach 85°F).

NFL Draft 2026: 3rd Overall Pick

Top Undervalued

Jordyn Tyson(No)

Jeremiyah Love(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market is currently in an extreme 'super bubble' state of irrationality. The sum of all 'Yes' pr...

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Extreme divergence. The market pricing implies that nearly 10 players each have a >30% chance of being the 3rd overall pick, which is mathematically impossible. Furthermore, players like Spencer Fano and Jordyn Tyson are rarely consistently locked as top-3 picks in mainstream 2026 mock drafts (e.g., ESPN, PFF) compared to prospects like Francis Mauigoa or Nico Iamaleava. The prices reflect a speculative bubble rather than expert consensus.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for "NFL Draft 2026: 3rd Overall Pick" to analyze the Order Book depth and bid-ask spreads for top contenders (e.g., Carson Beck or Nico Iamaleava), and update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk based on the latest breaking news regarding draft stocks.

Weather|$3 Vol|

Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?

Top Undervalued

18°C or higher(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on composite forecasts from AccuWeather, The Weather Channel (Google), and Meteoblue, the high...

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Extreme divergence exists. The market pricing implies a ~50% probability of temperatures below 8°C and a simultaneous ~50% probability of temperatures above 18°C on March 26. In stark contrast, all mainstream meteorological models (Meteoblue, GFS, ECMWF) consistently forecast a range of 12°C to 16°C. This divergence is entirely driven by market illiquidity and mispricing rather than any alternative information.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and spread for 'Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26', query the latest forecast data from Wunderground for that date, and assess if current odds deviate from the central trend of meteorological models.

Culture|$3 Vol|

283 days 11 hrs

Will Halle Berry and Van Hunt get married by December 31?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although Halle Berry emphasized 'we don't have a date' in her February 2026 interview, the fundament...

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This is a typical celebrity gossip prediction market. While not completely absurd (as they are a public couple), predicting personal life milestones is a niche market compared to serious political or financial topics, giving it a moderate exotic/entertainment rating.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media confirms the engagement and plans for a wedding, which typically correlates with a higher probability of completion (>50%). However, the prediction market implies only a 36% chance. The key divergence lies in the interpretation of 'no date set': the market views this as a signal of delay or 'not this year,' whereas for a planned small wedding, the 10-month window is remarkably ample, suggesting the market pricing is overly pessimistic.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Halle Berry & Van Hunt Marriage' event to analyze the order book depth given the negligible trading volume ($3.28); are there any realistic counterparties, or is this a 'zombie market' lacking active liquidity?

Politics|$3 Vol|

226 days 11 hrs

TX-28 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although TX-28 shows some swing tendencies in presidential years, incumbent moderate Democrat Henry ...

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[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Lock-up ROI & Low Liquidity Strategy: Calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital until November 2026 (~8 months) compared to risk-free DeFi yields. Given the lack of market depth, analyze whether to avoid market orders and instead use a 'Stink Bid' strategy—placing extremely low limit orders to catch panic selling triggered by potential negative breaking news about the Democratic candidate.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the negligible volume ($3.24), visit the Polymarket page to analyze if the order book is 'zombie' or has a massive spread. Combine this with the legal risks facing incumbent Henry Cuellar (bribery indictment) to assess if the current implied probability drastically deviates from expert ratings like The Cook Political Report (e.g., Toss-up/Lean Democrat).

[Key Players Mining] Candidate Legal Status & Primary Confirmation: Search for the latest court updates regarding incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar's federal indictment and the status of the March 2026 Texas Primaries. Confirm if Cuellar is secure as the nominee or risks replacement, as losing 'incumbency advantage' would significantly increase the Republican Party's chance of flipping this border district.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Lock-up ROI & Low Liquidity Strategy: Calculate the opportunity cost of locking capital until November 2026 (~8 months) compared to risk-free DeFi yields. Given the lack of market depth, analyze whether to avoid market orders and instead use a 'Stink Bid' strategy—placing extremely low limit orders to catch panic selling triggered by potential negative breaking news about the Democratic candidate.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the negligible volume ($3.24), visit the Polymarket page to analyze if the order book is 'zombie' or has a massive spread. Combine this with the legal risks facing incumbent Henry Cuellar (bribery indictment) to assess if the current implied probability drastically deviates from expert ratings like The Cook Political Report (e.g., Toss-up/Lean Democrat).

Elections|$3 Vol|

226 days 11 hrs

PA-08 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(No)

Republican Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

While the market currently favors the Democrats (56.5c), the fundamental analysis remains unchanged,...

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On March 5, 2026, the Republican Party price exhibited high volatility, spiking from a low of 44.5c (15:36) to a high of 56c (19:56) before quickly retracing to 47.5c. This 11.5c intraday swing suggests low liquidity or specific short-term speculative activity. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, no significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were detected for any option, with the market in a consolidation phase.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply a ~56% win probability for Democrats, whereas mainstream political analysts (e.g., Cook Political Report) rate the seat as 'Lean Republican,' which typically correlates to a >60% GOP win probability. Market pricing contradicts both historical voting patterns and expert ratings.

Visit the Polymarket page to check the extremely low order book liquidity (~$3 volume) for the PA-08 election, and combine this with the latest district ratings from Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball (e.g., 'Lean Democrat' vs. 'Toss-up') to reassess the fundamental fair value in the absence of market pricing references.

Weather|$2 Vol|

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 26?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current weather forecasts for Buenos Aires (Ezeiza Airport) on March 26 predict sunny conditions wit...

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Extreme divergence exists. Market prices imply a >25% probability for temperatures of 30°C or higher, which completely contradicts all mainstream meteorological forecasts (which consistently predict mild weather around 24°C). Furthermore, the market structure is inverted: the most likely outcome (24°C) is priced significantly lower (17.5c) than the highly unlikely 32°C+ outcomes (25.5c), indicating a lack of rational liquidity or a broken market state.

Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book (specifically the extremely low volume of $1.43) and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and liquidity risks based on authoritative forecasts like AccuWeather.

171 days 11 hrs

Chiefs Week 1 starting QB in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Chris Oladokun(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Patrick Mahomes' ACL/LCL recovery timeline (9 months) aligns perfectly with Week 1, making his avail...

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Significant divergence exists. Market prices imply ~40% starting probabilities each for Chris Oladokun, Gardner Minshew, and Joe Flacco, summing to far above 100%. Mainstream sports media and expert consensus hold that if Mahomes sits, the Chiefs would acquire a specific veteran replacement, and the probability of Oladokun starting is near zero. The backup option prices reflect a lack of sell-side liquidity rather than realistic football forecasting.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information and visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book, specifically evaluating the slippage risk given the extremely low volume ($60) and assessing if the current odds accurately reflect the near-certainty of Patrick Mahomes starting in 2026.

Japanese Grand Prix: Constructor Pole Position

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market pricing is severely distorted (sum of probabilities >340%). Given the 2026 regulations wi...

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Significant divergence from reality. The market implies ~40% probability for 8 different teams, which is mathematically impossible (mutually exclusive events must sum to 100%). This reflects a broken or illiquid market state rather than genuine consensus.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve and analyze the latest order book for this '2026 Japanese GP Constructor Pole' market on Polymarket. Given the extremely low volume ($42), assess if there are massive spreads or liquidity traps, and compare the odds against the actual 2026 F1 team hierarchy to identify obvious mispricing.

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