Background
Elections|$55 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

SC-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+3.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
SC-03 remains one of South Carolina's most solid Republican districts (Cook PVI R+21). Incumbent Rep...
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AI Analysis
Sports|$55 Vol|
time164 days 1 hrs

Where will David Njoku play in 2026-27?

Top Undervalued
+28.8¢
Indianapolis Colts(No)
+28¢
Baltimore Ravens(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Njoku explicitly announced on Feb 10, 2026, that he will not return to the Cleveland Browns, and the...
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Rule Risk
Significant rule conflict exists. The title asks where he will play in 2026-27 and includes his current team (Cleveland Browns) as an option. However, the rules state if he does not join a '**new** team', it resolves to 'Other'. Literally interpreted, staying with the Browns (not joining a new team) would trigger 'Other' instead of 'Cleveland Browns', making the Browns option a potential trap.
Divergence
Market pricing is completely disconnected from reality. **Conflict**: Njoku posted a farewell to Cleveland and is a confirmed free agent, yet the market implies a ~29% chance he stays with the Browns. Furthermore, the uniform pricing (~29% for all teams) ignores the significant advantage of top contenders like the Atlanta Falcons (Stefanski connection), treating them the same as unlikely destinations.
AI Analysis
Earnings|$55 Vol|
time11 days 14 hrs

Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The street consensus for Conagra Brands (CAG) fiscal Q3 2026 Non-GAAP EPS stands at $0.40. The marke...
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Hedging
CAG
The outcome of this event directly dictates the post-earnings price action of Conagra Brands (CAG). An EPS beat typically drives the stock price up, while a miss tends to pull it down. Although as a Consumer Staples stock it generally exhibits lower volatility than tech stocks, earnings day remains a distinct tradable event.
AI Analysis
Culture|$50 Vol|
time56 days 1 hrs

Eurovision Last Place 2026

Top Undervalued
+36¢
Italy(No)
+35.5¢
Lithuania(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is suffering from extreme illiquidity ($50 volume), resulting in completely distorted pri...
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Divergence
Extreme divergence. Market prices imply a near 40% chance for countries like Lithuania or Poland to place last, with the sum of probabilities far exceeding 100%. In reality, the chance for any single country to place last pre-final is very low, and it is impossible for all countries to carry such high risk simultaneously. This divergence is caused entirely by the market's lack of liquidity (Volume: 50.0), not by any real-world consensus or analysis.
AI Analysis
Elections|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

NM-03 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
Republican Party(No)
+2.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
NM-03 is a solid Democratic stronghold in New Mexico, anchored by the liberal city of Santa Fe and s...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

OR-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
OR-01 is a solid Democratic stronghold (Cook PVI D+18/20). Incumbent Democrat Suzanne Bonamici won d...
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Rule Risk
There is a significant liquidity trap in the rules: although this is a market for a single district (OR-01), the determination of the candidate's party affiliation is pegged to when 'all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called'. This means that even if OR-01 is decided decisively on election night, payouts will be locked until the very last contested seat in the nation (potentially involving weeks of recounts) is settled.
Divergence
Significant probability divergence exists. The market pricing implies a ~6.5% win probability for Republicans, whereas mainstream forecasts (e.g., Cook Political Report) rate the district as 'Solid Democrat,' implying a near-zero chance for the GOP. The market overestimates the Republican odds likely due to liquidity premiums or tail-risk hedging.
AI Analysis
Politics|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

PA-15 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+3.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District (PA-15) is a Republican stronghold with a Cook PVI of app...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

TX-20 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Texas primary concluded on March 3, 2026, with incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro easily securing...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

WA-02 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Republican Party(No)
+4.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
WA-02 is a solid Democratic stronghold (Cook PVI D+9/D+12). Incumbent Democrat Rick Larsen has serve...
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AI Analysis
Elections|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

LA-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+7.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Louisiana's 1st District (LA-01) is one of the deepest Republican strongholds in the nation (Cook PV...
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Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing (89% GOP win probability) and political reality (>99% GOP win probability). Mainstream forecasters like the Cook Political Report rate LA-01 as 'Solid Republican,' and Scalise's position as Majority Leader is unassailable. The 11% implied probability for an upset is fundamentally unjustified and represents a pricing inefficiency.
AI Analysis
Politics|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

GA-09 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+7.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
GA-09 remains one of the most solid Republican strongholds in Georgia (Cook PVI R+22), covering the ...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$50 Vol|
time227 days 1 hrs

CT-02 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+6.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the 2026 midterms occur under a Republican President (Trump), historical trends heavily favor the...
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AI Analysis
Politics|$45 Vol|
time101 days 1 hrs

Tony Gonzalez charged by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+25¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While Tony Gonzales admitted to the affair on March 4 and ended his re-election bid on March 6, the ...
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Exotics
This falls under specific political scandal/legal risk markets. While indictment markets for high-profile figures (like Trump or Menendez) are common, betting on criminal charges for a specific, mid-tier Representative is relatively niche and usually implies specific circulating rumors.
Movers
From March 4 to March 6, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from the ~20c range to over 50c. This spike was driven by Rep. Tony Gonzales formally admitting to the affair with late staffer Regina Santos-Aviles, followed by the launch of a House Ethics Committee investigation and his subsequent announcement that he would end his re-election campaign. This cascade of political failures panicked the market into pricing in immediate legal consequences.
Divergence
The market price (53%) implies a better-than-even chance of criminal charges, which sharply diverges from legal reality. Legal consensus would suggest the probability of a federal indictment within 3 months is extremely low (<10%) purely based on an affair scandal without smoking-gun evidence of financial crimes. Market sentiment is driven by the emotional impact of his resignation from the race, ignoring the slowness and complexity of criminal procedural timelines.
AI Analysis
Elections|$45 Vol|
time228 days 1 hrs

TX-18 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+0.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
TX-18 is one of the safest Democratic seats in the House (Cook PVI D+23). Demographics and historica...
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AI Analysis

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