Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' on all listed options (Buy the Field). Plan Description: The sum of 'Yes' prices for all 8 options is currently 99.45 cents (51+43.6+3.1+...). Buying 'Yes' o...

As of March 20, 2026, the Atlantic Division race has solidified into a duel between the Tampa Bay Li...

With less than 24 hours until the March 22 runoff, the market is undergoing a sharp mean reversion. ...

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, François Piquemal's price retraced sharply from a high of 56.5c to around 41c, with Jean-Luc Moudenc rebounding. The reason was a sharp market correction after over-betting on a Left coalition victory the previous day, as traders reassessed the incumbent's ability to consolidate anti-left votes in the runoff. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, François Piquemal's price surged from ~40c to 56c, likely due to pre-runoff mobilization signals or rumors of polls favoring the Left, triggering panic about an incumbent defeat. March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, François Piquemal skyrocketed from 5c to 40c because the Round 1 results showed a strong performance by the Left, securing a spot in the runoff.

Divergence exists. Typically, in French municipal runoffs, an incumbent center-right mayor facing a radical left challenger is viewed by mainstream political analysis as 'favored' (60-70% probability) provided the first round gap wasn't insurmountable. However, the prediction market's implied probability for Moudenc (56.5%) reflects a tighter race than conventional political wisdom would suggest. This indicates market participants may be hedging against specific risks of high left-wing turnout or recent anti-incumbent sentiment, resulting in slightly conservative pricing.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Nikola Jokic (Yes) Plan Description: Jokic is trading at 92c, implying an 8% chance of loss. Analytical breakdown shows he only needs ~30...

As of March 18, 2026, Nikola Jokic (~10.6 APG) holds a commanding lead over Cade Cunningham (~10.0 A...

2026-03-12 to 2026-03-18, Cade Cunningham's price crashed from 17c to 6.4c as the market realized Jokic's continued participation and accumulation of assists effectively closed Cunningham's only path to victory (which relied on Jokic failing to qualify). 2026-03-17 to 2026-03-18, Trae Young's price ticked up from 0.55c to 0.85c driven by news of his return to the lineup on March 19. This is irrational noise, as his statistical deficit (~8.9 APG vs 10.6 APG) is mathematically insurmountable.

The rapid retracement from the March 15 high of 52c back to 43c confirms the fragility of market con...

This market functions as a 'basket' parlay of 13 extreme, independent conditions. If **any** of them occur, the market resolves to 'No'. The primary risk lies in the ambiguity of certain definitions, such as 'Trump out as President' (does this cover temporary power transfer or impeachment without removal?), 'Iranian regime falls' (what is the threshold for regime collapse?), and the specific seat count for a 'Supermajority'. Additionally, reliance on an external PDF for full rules creates risk if the document becomes inaccessible or slightly contradicts the platform summary.

While individual components (like a Taiwan invasion or Bitcoin price) are standard prediction topics, mixing geopolitical disasters with conspiracy-theory style events like 'Trump acquires Greenland' or 'Epstein alive' creates a unique 'Doom/Chaos' index. This eclectic mix gives it higher novelty and meme potential than a standard single-issue market.

This market essentially acts as an ultimate 'Black Swan' hedge. If the market resolves to 'No' (meaning something happened), it is almost certainly due to an extreme global shock (e.g., China/Taiwan war, US/Iran war, 9.0 earthquake, Trump removal). Any of these events would cause violent swings in global assets: crashing equities (S&P 500), spiking safe havens (Gold, Treasuries), or surging energy prices (Crude Oil). Additionally, the rules explicitly link to Bitcoin hitting $1M or $10k, creating a direct correlation.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market pricing implies a 57% probability of a 'catastrophic event' (e.g., US President removal, invasion of Taiwan, 9.0 earthquake) occurring within the next 9 months. In contrast, mainstream media, political analysts, and the scientific community typically model the aggregate probability of such extreme events occurring in a single year as much lower (usually under 20%). Market sentiment appears heavily driven by specific short-term fears (e.g., Iran tensions), exhibiting much higher risk aversion than rational statistical models.

The current market price (30.5c) reflects a slow erosion of confidence due to the lack of follow-up ...

While US-Syria relations are a classic geopolitical topic, reopening the embassy is not a standard expectation given current sanctions on the Assad regime. It represents a potential diplomatic 'black swan' or major policy shift—neither completely inconceivable nor a daily discussion topic.

The U.S. reopening its embassy in Damascus would signal a major geopolitical shift in the Middle East, implying some level of recognition or strategic compromise regarding the Assad regime. This could significantly alter regional tensions or trigger reactions from allies (like Israel), impacting crude oil risk premiums. Since Syria is not a major oil producer, the impact is primarily via geopolitical signaling.

For 'March 16', the date has passed (March 17), rendering the value effectively zero. For 'March 31'...

This is a moderately exotic market. While the succession of Iran's Supreme Leader (with Mojtaba as a top contender) is a major geopolitical topic, betting on the specific public appearance of an individual is niche unless driven by specific rumors (e.g., disappearance, illness of the current leader, or imminent power transfer).

A public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei is often linked to succession dynamics or major political announcements in Iran. An unexpected high-profile appearance could signal deteriorating health of the current Supreme Leader or accelerated power transfer. This uncertainty directly impacts Middle East geopolitics, affecting Crude Oil (supply fears) and Gold (safe-haven demand). However, the appearance alone without a major accompanying event limits the shock, hence a medium score.

March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, the 'April 30' option price surged from 21.5c to 38.5c as traders hedged the 'March 31' crash, betting on a 'delayed recovery' scenario where Mojtaba appears in April after missing March. March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the 'March 31' option price crashed from 33.5c to 15.5c because an official statement was read by a news anchor instead of delivered personally, triggering panic selling driven by 'death/coma' fears. March 11, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the 'March 31' option declined from 56c to 33.5c due to his continued absence from succession-related events.

There is significant divergence. Mainstream geopolitical analysis typically views 'statements read by anchors' combined with 'prolonged disappearance' during a succession crisis as a terminal signal, often implying death or total incapacitation. However, the prediction market assigns a high 35% probability to 'April 30', indicating traders are holding onto a 'he is alive' optimism that contradicts the bearish conclusions of traditional regime analysis.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Top 3 Bundle (Ana Paula + Jonas + Chaiany) Plan Description: There is a significant 'overpriced long tail' inefficiency in the market. The sum of the Yes prices ...

While Ana Paula Renault (67.5c) remains the nominal frontrunner, the market is displaying significan...

This is a prediction specific to a country (Brazil) and an entertainment show (Big Brother). While not entirely obscure given the show's massive popularity and viewership, it qualifies as a pop-culture niche market rather than a standard financial or political event.

Mar 14, 2026 - Mar 17, 2026, Jonas Sulzbach's price surged from 5.55c to 17.05c, as anti-Ana Paula votes began to consolidate nearing the finale, and polling data indicated a sharp rise in his competitiveness, forcing the market to correct his previous undervaluation. Mar 3, 2026 - Mar 10, 2026, Alberto Pimentel's price crashed from 5.25c to 0.55c, and Breno Corã spiked then collapsed to 0.5c, due to elimination results confirming their exit or loss of viability. Feb 27, 2026 - Feb 28, 2026, Jonas Sulzbach's price rebounded quickly from 4c to 9.2c as he established himself as the only viable male contender. Feb 15, 2026 - Feb 21, 2026, Milena Moreira's price collapsed from 13.5c to 7.2c, indicating the collapse of her tier-1 status.

Significant divergence exists. Although Jonas Sulzbach's price has started to rise (to 17%), the market pricing remains extremely conservative relative to the 'head-to-head or even overtaking' scenario implied by media reports and polls from March 9. The market odds currently imply Ana Paula (67.5%) is nearly 4 times more likely to win than Jonas, which is disconnected from the external sentiment of a 'surge' in Jonas's support. This suggests strong 'Anchoring Bias' among market participants, failing to fully price in the recent regime shift.

Although the market price rebounded to 61.5c from the mid-March low (56.5c), showing resilient capit...

There is a significant 'Legislative Vehicle' risk. The rules explicitly cite H.R.3633 and its Congress.gov tracker as the primary resolution source. In Congress, the text of a bill is often enacted by being merged into a larger omnibus package rather than passing as a standalone bill (H.R.3633). If the text of the Clarity Act is attached to another vehicle that becomes law, while the specific H.R.3633 tracker remains stuck at 'Referred' or 'Passed House', a strict literal interpretation would resolve 'No'. This creates a mismatch between the 'spirit' of the bet (law passage) and the 'letter' of the rule, leading to potential disputes.

The Clarity Act aims to define whether digital assets are commodities or securities, serving as a critical regulatory catalyst for the industry. Its passage would remove existential regulatory uncertainty for exchanges like Coinbase (COIN) and pave the way for institutional capital to enter Bitcoin (BTC), generally viewed as a major bullish event (Impact Score 4). Conversely, if the bill fails again, the overhang of regulatory enforcement will continue to suppress valuations. Traders can use this event to directly hedge regulatory risk in crypto portfolios.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No IPO by June 30, 2026' (Yes) Plan Description: While the sum of all option prices (Yes 93.7c + other buckets ~6c) is close to 100c, offering no sig...

Maintaining the fair value assessment of 99 cents for the 'No IPO' option. Today is March 20, 2026, ...

Anthropic's IPO valuation will directly reflect market confidence in pricing Large Language Model (LLM) startups. This will have a direct impact on Google and Amazon (major investors), scoring a 3, as it relates to the value of their portfolios and the success of their AI strategies. As a key rival to OpenAI, a high valuation could serve as a benchmark affecting Microsoft. For the Nasdaq 100, while this is significant tech news, a single IPO is unlikely to cause a structural index shock (Score 2) unless it is exceptionally large or signals the bursting of an AI bubble.

Pricing divergence exists. Fundamental analysis suggests the probability of listing by June 30 is nearly zero (should be priced at 99c+), yet the market price is only 93.7c. This divergence does not stem from conflicting views on 'whether it will list', but rather markets pricing in the cost of capital (opportunity cost) and excessive risk aversion towards negligible 'black swan' events (like a sudden acquisition or SPAC merger).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: This is a classic 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. Buying 'No' at 93.5 cents yields a 6.5 cent profit o...

Despite the 'Iran War' breaking out in March 2026 dragging Trump's net approval to -13.6% and persis...

While presidential resignation is historically extremely rare (only Nixon), given Trump's controversial political career and complex legal/health situation, speculation about his resignation is not entirely absurd, placing this in the moderately exotic category.

If Trump were to announce his resignation, it would be a massive political shock creating high uncertainty. This would trigger significant volatility in equities (S&P 500), likely pressure the dollar (DXY) due to instability, and boost Gold as a safe haven. The stock tied directly to his personal brand (DJT) would likely face catastrophic impact or extreme volatility.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media and experts (e.g., Brookings, constitutional scholars) focus on the feasibility of the '25th Amendment' or the risk of 'death in office', both of which resolve to 'No' in this market. The market pricing (6.5%) implies a relatively high probability of resignation, suggesting uninformed capital is conflating 'Exit' with 'Resignation', or mistakenly hedging other exit risks via this specific contract.

While the market has shown significant optimism for medium-term contracts (April and June) in the la...

The rules contain significant grey areas. First, the distinction between 'solely humanitarian operations' and 'convoy escort' is ambiguous; military escorts for aid often blur these lines, creating dispute potential. Second, the exclusion of 'Israeli controlled buffer zones' is tricky, as these zones are dynamic during wartime and lack fixed, internationally recognized boundaries, making it difficult to verify if forces have technically entered 'Gaza territory'.

The outcome has a medium correlation with crude oil prices. A 'Yes' resolution implies a multinational agreement on a 'Day After' plan or ceasefire, which would significantly reduce the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, likely acting as a bearish signal for oil. Conversely, a 'No' prolongs the status quo uncertainty. Gold, as a safe haven, would also react to the sentiment shift.

March 14, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the June 30 option surged from 30c to 47.5c, while the April 30 option rose from 14.5c to 24.5c. The reason appears to be a market reaction to renewed diplomatic efforts, with rumors suggesting a ceasefire deal containing a 'Day After peacekeeping framework' could be reached during Ramadan (March), locking the actual deployment timeline into Q2 rather than immediately. March 5, 2026 - March 7, 2026, the price of the June 30 option crashed from 53c to 21.5c, and the April 30 option fell from 23c to 13c. The reason was a statement from Kosovo indicating deployment in 'coming months,' combined with intensified Israeli operations, which shattered hopes for an 'Early April' entry. February 24, 2026 - February 26, 2026, the price of the June 30 option rebounded from 51.5c to 61.5c, representing a correction from previous overselling.

While 'Operation Epic Fury' (the war starting Feb 2026) drastically increases Iran's strategic motiv...

If Iran is confirmed to possess a nuclear weapon, it would be a massive geopolitical shock (Score 5). This would drastically heighten fears of a preemptive strike by Israel or a broader regional war, directly threatening Persian Gulf oil supplies and causing Crude Oil prices to spike. Gold would rally significantly as a safe haven, while US Yields and Equities would see high volatility due to risk-off sentiment and inflation expectations driven by oil shocks.

Despite the sharp correction in the price of 'May 15' over the past week (dropping from 87c to 71.5c...

Kevin Warsh is generally perceived as more hawkish or possessing different monetary policy inclinations compared to the incumbent (Powell). His confirmation would signal a potential pivot in future Fed policy (e.g., a more aggressive stance on inflation or deregulation), directly impacting US 10Y Yields and the Dollar Index (DXY). For equities, a hawkish chair is typically bearish, though his deregulation stance could favor the banking sector. This event is significant enough to trigger a market repricing.

March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of the 'May 1' option plunged from 40c to 28c, a single-day drop of 12c; concurrently, 'May 15' dropped from 79.5c to 76.5c and continued to slide to 71.5c in the following days. Reason: The market grew frustrated with the lack of tangible progress in the Senate confirmation process. As May 1 approaches, investors began panic-selling 'early confirmation' stakes, and this pessimism contagiously affected the 'deadline confirmation' option. March 4, 2026 - March 5, 2026, the 'May 1' option spiked from 32.5c to 44.5c before retracing. Reason: The market briefly misinterpreted Senate Banking Committee scheduling as a sign of an accelerated timeline. February 16, 2026 - February 17, 2026, the 'May 1' option dropped significantly while capital shifted to 'May 15', reflecting concerns over Senatorial holds blocking the agenda.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market currently implies a 28.5% probability (100-71.5) that Warsh will NOT be confirmed by May 15. However, mainstream political analysis and Washington observers (e.g., Politico Playbook or WSJ opinion) broadly agree that while the process may be messy, the GOP will not tolerate a vacancy (Acting Chair) at the Federal Reserve. Thus, the actual probability of confirmation before the May 15 'hard line' should be above 90%. The market price reflects excessive liquidity panic rather than a rational forecast of political outcomes.