Elections Prediction Markets – AI Odds & Fair Value Analysis | PolyPredict AI

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Politics|$3,204 Vol|

MO-06 Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

James Ingram(Yes)

Chris Stigall(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current market prices reflect the expectations for the Republican primary candidates in Missouri...

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Compare the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight or RCP for the MO-06 Republican primary with the current odds discrepancies for candidates like Gena Ross and Nathan Willett.

Politics|$3,179 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

LA-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

LA-05 is one of the most solid Republican districts in the nation (Cook PVI R+17/18). The district's...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, considering the extremely low volume (~$685), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth of the order book. Combined with the context of LA-05 being a safe Republican stronghold, assess whether the current price reflects high liquidity premiums or pricing inefficiencies.

[Awareness & Verification] District Historical Data & Redistricting Risk Check: Search for the latest 'Cook Partisan Voting Index' (PVI) for Louisiana's 5th District and the incumbent's (e.g., Julia Letlow) vote margins in the last two elections. Confirm if there are any recent redistricting lawsuits or rulings affecting the 2026 midterms that could fundamentally shift the district's partisan lean.

Elections|$3,159 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

OH-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

OH-05 is a staunchly Republican district (Cook PVI R+15) with demographics and voting history that h...

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[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest fundamentals for Ohio's 5th Congressional District (OH-05), such as the status of incumbent Republican Bob Latta; analyze the order book depth on Polymarket given the low $475 volume to assess if the current price reflects fair value and identify potential liquidity traps.

Elections|$3,110 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

Tennessee Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Tennessee is a deeply red state (Cook PVI R+14) where the GOP's dominance in statewide elections is ...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Access the Polymarket page for the "Tennessee Governor Election Winner". Given the extremely low volume ($1330), analyze the bid-ask spread and market depth. Combine this with Tennessee's "Deep Red" status to assess if the current Republican odds are fair or mispriced due to illiquidity.

Elections|$3,056 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

CA-25 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

California's 25th congressional district (CA-25) is a stronghold for incumbent Democrat Raul Ruiz an...

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[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'CA-25 House Election Winner' market. Given the extremely low volume ($275), assess the liquidity risk and bid-ask spread. Crucially, verify through user discussions and external data whether the market pricing reflects the *current* CA-25 boundaries (likely the safe Democratic seat held by Raul Ruiz) or if traders are confusing it with the pre-redistricting swing district. Update the fair value assessment based on the latest Cook Political Report rating.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'CA-25 House Election Winner' market. Given the extremely low volume ($275), assess the liquidity risk and bid-ask spread. Crucially, verify through user discussions and external data whether the market pricing reflects the *current* CA-25 boundaries (likely the safe Democratic seat held by Raul Ruiz) or if traders are confusing it with the pre-redistricting swing district. Update the fair value assessment based on the latest Cook Political Report rating.

Elections|$2,987 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

TX-37 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Texas's 37th congressional district (TX-37) covers the core of Austin and is an extremely safe Democ...

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[Mandatory Task] Given the extremely low trading volume of under $500, analyze the order book's bid-ask spread and depth to determine if the current odds truly reflect the 'Safe Democrat' fundamentals of TX-37 (a deep blue Austin district), or if they are simply inefficient pricing due to lack of liquidity?

Politics|$2,970 Vol|

Next First Minister of Wales?

Top Undervalued

Jane Dodds(Yes)

Anthony Slaughter(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest market pricing trends, Rhun ap Iorwerth's odds remain highly stable at aroun...

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April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Jane Dodds's price surged from 6c to a high of 23.75c before falling back to 10.55c, due to some investors expecting the Liberal Democrats to play a kingmaker role in a potential hung parliament, though the sentiment later cooled. April 30, 2026, Darren Millar's price surged from 9.3c to a high of 22.9c before dropping back to 13.5c, indicating a brief fluctuation and repricing of Conservative support ahead of the election. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of Rhun ap Iorwerth surged from 49.5c to 91c, while Eluned Morgan's price crashed from 20.5c to around 1.7c. This was due to a historic disruption in expectations leading up to the election, heavily favoring Plaid Cymru and pricing in a complete collapse of the Labour incumbent's advantage.

How do the latest polling data for the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections compare with the current market odds for candidates like Eluned Morgan and Rhun ap Iorwerth?

Elections|$2,863 Vol|

NJ-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Michael Roth(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

There is no recent polling or significant news available for the 2026 Democratic primary in NJ-07 th...

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What are the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight or local New Jersey surveys for the NJ-07 Democratic Primary (Varela, Roth, Bennett, Shah), and how do these authoritative polls compare with current Polymarket odds?

Politics|$2,852 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

IL-05 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

IL-05 (covering Chicago's North Side) is an extremely safe Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of ...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the IL-05 House Election page to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth given the low trading volume (~$2,400), and verify if the current pricing aligns with the district's historical 'Safe Democrat' Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) or if there is a liquidity premium/mispricing.

Politics|$2,807 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

TX-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

TX-01 is one of the safest Republican strongholds in Texas (Cook PVI R+25) with deeply entrenched in...

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[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this event resolves on November 4, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) if you buy the 'Republican Party' outcome at current prices and hold to maturity. Compare this ROI against the risk-free rate (e.g., US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields) over the next ~1.5 years to determine if locking up capital for a 'safe seat' victory is mathematically rational.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, given the low volume of only $1062, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for the 'Republican Party' option. Considering TX-01 is historically a 'Safe Republican' seat, assess whether the current odds accurately reflect this fundamental reality or if the lack of liquidity has caused a pricing deviation (e.g., underpriced odds offering a value entry).

[Awareness & Verification] District Historical Data & PVI Check: Search for the latest Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Texas District 1 (TX-01) and the 2024 election margin of the incumbent Republican (likely Nathaniel Moran). Verify if there are any demographic shifts trending 'Blue' in this district to determine if betting on the 'Democratic Party' is effectively a donation with zero chance of winning.

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Since this event resolves on November 4, 2026, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) if you buy the 'Republican Party' outcome at current prices and hold to maturity. Compare this ROI against the risk-free rate (e.g., US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields) over the next ~1.5 years to determine if locking up capital for a 'safe seat' victory is mathematically rational.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event and, given the low volume of only $1062, analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for the 'Republican Party' option. Considering TX-01 is historically a 'Safe Republican' seat, assess whether the current odds accurately reflect this fundamental reality or if the lack of liquidity has caused a pricing deviation (e.g., underpriced odds offering a value entry).

Politics|$2,773 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

NC-13 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Democratic Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

NC-13 remains a 'Solid Republican' district post-redistricting. Incumbent Brad Knott is seeking re-e...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'NC-13 House Election Winner' event. Given the extremely low volume (~$973), critically analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth. Combine this with the latest NC-13 district fundamentals (incumbent status, redistricting risks) to assess if the current price is distorted or presents a liquidity trap.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'NC-13 House Election Winner' event. Given the extremely low volume (~$973), critically analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth. Combine this with the latest NC-13 district fundamentals (incumbent status, redistricting risks) to assess if the current price is distorted or presents a liquidity trap.

Politics|$2,767 Vol|

Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Phil Scott(Yes)

John Rodgers(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The market has fully corrected its previous irrational panic regarding incumbent Governor Phil Scott...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event. Given the extremely low volume of $746, analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth for "John Rodgers" vs. "Phil Scott." Combined with Scott's high approval rating as incumbent and Rodgers' status as a challenger, assess whether current odds reflect genuine risk regarding Scott's decision to run, or simply market inefficiency due to illiquidity.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event. Given the extremely low volume of $746, analyze the bid-ask spread and order book depth for "John Rodgers" vs. "Phil Scott." Combined with Scott's high approval rating as incumbent and Rodgers' status as a challenger, assess whether current odds reflect genuine risk regarding Scott's decision to run, or simply market inefficiency due to illiquidity.

Politics|$2,755 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

TX-20 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Democratic Party(Yes)

Republican Party(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

TX-20 is a deep-blue district (Cook PVI D+15). Incumbent Democrat Joaquin Castro overwhelmingly won ...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the current low volume ($1392), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth. Does the current pricing accurately reflect the fundamentals of TX-20 as a "Safe Democratic" seat (based on Cook PVI), or is there mispricing due to illiquidity?

Politics|$2,734 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current date is April 28, 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Republicans lose a net of at least o...

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Elections|$2,714 Vol|

183 days 23 hrs

TX-16 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(No)

Democratic Party(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

TX-16 (El Paso) remains one of the most solid Democratic strongholds in Texas, boasting a Cook Parti...

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Retrieve the latest campaign updates for Texas's 16th Congressional District (TX-16), visit the Polymarket page to analyze why the volume is extremely low ($51), and combine this with the district's historical voting trends to assess if there is a liquidity trap or mispricing risk due to the long-term capital lock-up.

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