Guessing the exact number of tweets a head of state will post in a specific week is a highly niche and obscure prediction topic. Aside from hardcore prediction market participants, the general public rarely thinks about such questions.

May 1 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for '60-79' surged from 34c to 67.5c, while '80-99' plummeted from 42c to 21c. The reason is that as the tracking period nears its end, the accumulated number of tweets becomes clearer, greatly increasing the certainty that the total will fall within the 60-79 range. April 29 - April 30, 2026, the Yes price for '80-99' surged from 37c to 61c, '40-59' plummeted from 46.5c to 11.5c on the 29th before rebounding to 20.5c, and '60-79' dropped from 50c to 30.5c. The reason is extremely poor market liquidity, where small orders can cause violent fluctuations. April 28, 2026, the Yes prices for all options experienced violent swings around 16:00 and 17:00, universally fluctuating by more than 30c. The reason is that the market was just launched or has extremely low liquidity, and sporadic market orders swept the thin order book, causing illogical and sharp price movements.

There are notable rule pitfalls, as the classification of 'replies' and 'deleted posts' relies heavily on a custom external tracker (xtracker). The tracker's API latency (~5 minutes) and specific handling of replies on the main feed can easily lead to discrepancies between manual user counts and the final resolution.

This is a typical novelty social media market. Ordinary people or professional investors would not naturally predict the exact number of posts a specific crypto celebrity makes in a future 7-day window. It exists purely to satisfy niche betting demands.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the Yes price for '<20' surged from 16.5c to 79c, while '20-39' plummeted from 83c to 12c. This was driven by the realization that CZ's actual posting volume is extremely low as the tracking period progresses, leading the market to heavily price in a total count under 20. April 28, 2026, 16:03 - 17:08, massive fluctuations occurred across options: Yes for 160-179 dropped from 49.95c to 48.3c, while Yes for 120-139 spiked from 2.45c to 14.95c, 100-119 surged from 27.35c to 44.25c, and 80-99 rose from 27.4c to 45.6c. These extreme moves were likely driven by a lack of liquidity or a major execution error by a whale. April 28, 2026, 05:58 - 16:03, Yes prices across most high-frequency brackets (e.g., 160-179, 140-159) experienced irrational spikes. Yes for 160-179 exploded from 1.05c to 49.95c. This is typical of market manipulation or fat-finger errors in extreme low-liquidity conditions. April 25 - April 26, 2026, Yes prices for all brackets except '20-39' crashed, e.g., '<20' fell from 50.5c to 18.5c, indicating severe repricing in the initial days.

Moderate risk exists as resolution strictly relies on a specific tracker (xtracker). Edge cases, such as deleted posts only counting if they survive ~5 minutes, and replies only counting if captured on the main feed by the tool, can easily cause discrepancies between manual counting and the official result.

Highly exotic and novelty-driven. Forecasting the precise number of weekly tweets from a local politician is extremely niche; general audiences would never naturally ponder this metric without a specific betting market.

Between 2026-05-01 and 2026-05-02, the YES price for the '20-39' option pulled back from 92.5c to 78.5c. This is likely due to market uncertainty regarding the account's posting frequency over the remaining three days, causing some capital to take profits. Between 2026-04-28 16:03 and 2026-04-29 21:18, the YES price for the '20-39' option surged from 49.5c to 94.5c, while '<20' and '40-59' plummeted to below 5c. This was caused by the normalization of the previous liquidity anomaly as actual posting data became clear, concentrating funds on the most likely outcome. Between 2026-04-28 16:03 and 17:08, the YES prices of multiple options (60-79, 100-119, 140-159, 180-199) anomalously surged by 17c to over 30c. This was caused by irrational and indiscriminate buying of YES shares, heavily distorting the market's liquidity.

Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market. Unless they are betting, general audiences rarely care about such granular data.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 13c to 44c, while the 60-79 option plunged from 41.7c to 3.1c. This was due to a sudden and significant increase in Trump's actual posting frequency, causing the market to sharply revise expected totals upward. May 1, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of the 80-99 option rebounded from 26c to 40c, and the 60-79 option surged from 11c to 39.2c, as the accumulated data at the halfway point strongly indicates the final total will fall into this range, leading to rapid capital concentration. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 17.2c to 36.1c, while the 120-139 option plunged from 10.5c to 5c, and the 100-119 option dropped from 18.5c to 16.5c, as the posting pace slowed down further, causing market expectations for the total to be significantly downgraded and converge downwards. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the Yes price for 80-99 dropped from 30c to 26c and then rebounded to 38c, as posting frequency fluctuated but stabilized, concentrating market expectations in the mid-to-high range. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, as the posting frequency rebounded during the day, the market's expected total was revised upward again, with the Yes price of the 120-139 option rebounding from 11c to 18.5c, while the 40-59 option quickly dropped from 16.5c to around 7c. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the Yes price for the 120-139 option plunged from 20.5c to 11c, and the 100-119 option dropped from 21c to 14.5c. This is due to a slower-than-expected posting pace entering the second day, leading the market to downgrade high-end estimates. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price for the 100-119 option fluctuated from 19.5c to 20.5c, the 120-139 option rebounded from 18c to 23.5c, and the 40-59 option rose from 8.35c to 14.8c. This was due to changes in the posting pace entering the second day, leading to adjustments in market expectations for the final total. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the Yes price for the 80-99 option dropped from 55.5c to 32.5c, and the 120-139 option dropped from 45c to 25.5c. This was due to a recalibration of extreme expectations as the actual posting data from the first day became available. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 0.75c to 32.7c, and the 80-99 option surged from 14c to 55.5c. This was due to a downward adjustment in posting pace expectations for the specific time window, combined with structural distortions in the order book. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the Yes price for the 120-139 option rose from 16.5c to 32c, as early forecasting funds identified this bracket as closely aligning with his historical average output.

The rules exclude replies but note that replies recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker, which could cause resolution disputes. Furthermore, settlement heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com). Any tracker downtime or missed data (e.g., posts deleted before being captured) creates a risk of discrepancy with actual X data.

This is a typical novelty market for prediction platforms. For the general public, unless specifically incentivized, absolutely no one would care about or predict the exact number of tweets posted by the White House account in a single week, making it quite exotic.

Between 01:28 on May 1 and 12:08 on May 2, 2026, the '200+' option climbed from 13.5c to 26.5c, while the '160-179' option plummeted from 43c to 13.5c. This was driven by the White House's posting frequency remaining consistently high, significantly reducing the probability of landing in lower ranges and causing capital to shift to higher brackets. Between 07:58 and 18:48 on May 1, 2026, the '180-199' option surged from 36c to 62.5c, while the '160-179' option plummeted from 43.5c to 13c (before recovering slightly to 17c). This was driven by the clarity of the posting pace, giving the market confidence that the total will exceed 179 and prompting a massive shift of capital into the 180-199 bracket. Between April 30 and May 1, 2026, the '160-179' option plummeted from 43.5c to 13c, while the '180-199' option rose from 27.5c to 47c. The '200+' option also saw gains. This was driven by a continued high rate of White House posts, which eliminated the possibility of lower brackets and forced capital into higher projections. Between April 28 and April 30, 2026, the '180-199' option rose from 24c to 42.5c, and the '200+' option surged from 7c to 25c, while '160-179' and '140-159' plummeted by over 30c from their highs. This was driven by actual tracker data showing a faster-than-expected posting rate as the period progressed, causing an upward shift in volume projections. Between 06:03 and 16:03 on April 28, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 38c to 58c, '180-199' surged from 23.5c to 44c, and '200+' surged from 14.5c to 45c. This suggests market expectations of a significantly higher posting frequency, likely due to breaking news or an intensive promotional campaign for a specific event. Between April 27 and April 28, 2026, lower posting brackets experienced brief and anomalous price spikes at 16:03 on April 28, before quickly retreating. This was likely due to mispricing from illiquidity or large market orders sweeping the book.

The rules rely heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and include a fuzzy ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts, while also distinguishing between 'main feed replies' and 'normal replies'. These technical nuances can cause discrepancies between tracked data and user observations, leading to a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes in a specific week is a typical novelty behavioral market. It appears quite absurd and bizarre to the general public, even though such markets are somewhat popular in prediction circles due to Musk's high profile.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 160-179 bracket surged from around 5c to 28c, the 140-159 bracket surged from around 3c to 26.85c, and the 180-199 bracket surged from around 9c to 18.95c. This is because as the tracking days increase, Musk's actual tweet count demonstrates a consistently stable and lower-than-initially-expected trend, prompting the market to further concentrate bets on lower brackets. Earlier on April 28, 2026: Multiple brackets experienced significant price shifts. The '240-259' bracket surged from 19c to 47c, and '220-239' rose from 18c to 27c. These drastic movements reflect aggressive market recalibrations and hedging based on the actual tweeting velocity observed during the initial hours of the market period.

Moderate rule risk. Resolution heavily depends on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker), and there is a contradiction regarding replies (they don't count, unless the tracker records them on the main feed). Additionally, whether quickly deleted posts count depends entirely on the tracker's crawling timing.

A highly niche and novelty market. Aside from heavy prediction market participants, almost no one naturally wonders about the exact number of tweets a politician will make in a specific week.

Between May 1, 2026, and May 2, 2026, most options experienced drastic reversals. The Yes price for 100-119 surged from 27c to 65.5c before dropping to 35.5c; 80-99 plummeted from 56.5c to 4c, and 140-159 surged from 3.5c to 20.7c. This was driven by the latest post count data causing sharp shifts in the implied probabilities of specific ranges as time progressed. Between April 28, 2026, and April 30, 2026, due to the approaching settlement and possible fluctuations in posting speed, most option prices experienced significant adjustments. For example, 120-139 dropped from 53.5c to 28c, 60-79 fluctuated from 49.5c to 40.5c, and 100-119 decreased from 42c to 37.5c. Between April 28, 2026, 08:33 and 16:03, all options experienced severe volatility, with some Yes prices surging from very low levels to around 40c-50c. This is likely due to market participants sharply reevaluating their expectations of post counts as the start time approached, or a massive adjustment in market maker quotes.

The rules explicitly rely on a specific external tracker (xtracker) and contain two potential traps: 1. Replies generally don't count, but those recorded on the main feed by the tracker will; 2. Deleted posts that survive ~5 minutes are also counted. This can easily cause discrepancies between users manually counting on X and the final resolution data.

This is a typical novelty betting market. Aside from prediction market degens, the general public or analysts would rarely think about or forecast the exact number of tweets posted by Iran's Supreme Leader during a specific future week.

From April 29 to May 2, 2026, as the market progressed with very few tweets, higher count options like '15-19', '20-24', and '25-29' plummeted from around 40c to under 5c, while '<5' surged from 46c to a peak of 78.5c. Between April 28 and April 30, 2026, due to extremely poor market depth and lack of liquidity, multiple options such as '<5', '55-59', and '15-19' experienced violent fluctuations. Notably, '55-59' surged from under 2c to 28.9c, and '<5' fluctuated wildly between 35c and 68c. This phenomenon is mainly attributed to mispricing caused by incredibly thin order books or short-term market manipulation. From April 26 to April 27, 2026, all options except '<5' saw significant drops, falling from around 48c to the 10-20c range, correcting the previous anomaly of high prices across the board.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 70+ option surged from 74c to 99c, and the 75+ option from 73c to 96.5c, while the 80+ option plummeted from 24.5c (peaking at 34.5c) to around 3c. This is because, as media reviews were published and counted, the score stabilized in the 75%-79% range, significantly increasing the probability of 70+ and 75+ resolving 'Yes', while practically eliminating the chance of reaching 80+.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: Chappell Roan's Yes price crashed from 55.5c to 29.5c, as the gala nears without any sightings in New York or due to confirmed schedule conflicts. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: Olivia Rodrigo's Yes price dropped from 66.5c to 49c, similarly due to a lack of concrete fitting or travel confirmations as the event approaches. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: Meryl Streep's Yes price rebounded to 25c after hitting a low of 6.5c, possibly due to faint rumors of a reversal. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: Billie Eilish's Yes price climbed from 50c to 64c before settling at 62c, hinting at new information supporting her attendance. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: Rihanna's Yes price surged from 50c to 93c, likely due to near-event confirmation of her attendance. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: Jay-Z's Yes price spiked from 52c to 80.5c, showing a renewed market expectation of him attending alongside co-chair Beyoncé. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: Meryl Streep's Yes price crashed from 37c to 11c, almost certainly confirming a definitive schedule conflict preventing her attendance. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: Billie Eilish's Yes price rebounded sharply from 13.5c to 50c, possibly due to new rumors denying her absence, bringing her back to toss-up status. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: Jay-Z's Yes price plummeted from 77.5c to 49.5c as the extremely high expectations of him definitively attending with his co-chair wife failed to gain new substantial backing, leading to a market correction. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: Billie Eilish's Yes price crashed from 60.5c down to 15.5c, highly likely due to emerging news of a confirmed scheduling conflict or a statement of non-attendance. April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026: Ice Spice's Yes price climbed from 28c to 58.5c, fueled by growing rumors regarding her fittings and travel to New York. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026: Jay-Z's Yes price surged from 50.5c to 78c, driven by mounting expectations that he will make a grand appearance alongside his wife and event co-chair, Beyoncé, as the Gala approaches. April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026: Meryl Streep's Yes price crashed from 81c down to 38c, likely due to insider leaks debunking earlier strong rumors and pointing to scheduling conflicts. April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026: Chappell Roan rebounded sharply from 42.5c to 64.5c, while Olivia Rodrigo maintained a surge to 62c, as fans and insiders uncovered potential clues regarding fittings or travel to New York on social media. April 23, 2026 - April 24, 2026: Rihanna's price spiked from 53c to 75.5c and has since held steady, as major fashion outlets teased that her red-carpet look has already been finalized.

This event is directly tied to the quarterly financial results of Grab Holdings (GRAB). Earnings beats or misses typically trigger significant tradable volatility in the specific stock (often ranging between 5% and 15%). Consequently, this prediction market serves as a direct hedge for GRAB equity around earnings season. However, it has negligible spillover impact on broader macro indices like the Nasdaq or S&P 500.

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded sharply from 24c to 71c (later stabilizing around 58c). The reason is that the market reassessed Grab's earnings potential, with traders believing the initial sell-off was overdone and that an EPS beat above $0.02 remains plausible, triggering dip-buying. April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 77.5c to 24c. The reason is that as the earnings date approaches, some analysts adjusted their EPS estimates to a lower level ($0.01-$0.02), causing market confidence in an EPS strictly greater than $0.02 to collapse, leading to a massive sell-off. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 72.5c. The reason was that as the earnings release date approached, market confidence in Grab beating earnings estimates had significantly strengthened, with continuous buying pushing the price up.

This event directly concerns the quarterly earnings performance of Hess Midstream (HESM). An EPS beat or miss will trigger a tradable price movement in HESM stock, representing a standard earnings-day shock. Although HESM operates in the midstream energy sector, a single mid-cap company's earnings have negligible impact on macro broad assets like Crude Oil.

April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to around 89c. The reason is that as the May 4 earnings release approaches, the market is influenced by positive read-throughs from strong peer performances in the midstream sector, leading traders to heavily bet on a high probability of Q1 earnings surpassing the $0.65 estimate. April 24, 2026 - April 29, 2026, recent prices fluctuated narrowly between 47.5c and 50c, with no sudden moves exceeding 10c.

April 29, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the Yes price of Ella Langley's 'I Can't Love You Anymore' briefly spiked from around 6c to over 49c before rapidly dropping back to around 5c. This was caused by an anomalous large order (fat-finger trade or liquidity test) in a low-liquidity order book, rather than any change in actual chart fundamentals. April 28, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the Yes prices of multiple longshot tracks (e.g., Noah Kahan's 'Doors', Justin Bieber's 'Beauty and a Beat') briefly spiked from under 2c to around 49c before rapidly collapsing back below 5c. The reason was a lack of market depth combined with anomalous large market orders. April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' surged from 45.5c to 95.2c, while other options plummeted from around 41c to below 5c. The reason is that as the Billboard tracking week progressed, actual chart-tracking data pointed to an overwhelming advantage for 'Choosin' Texas', prompting rapid market self-correction.

April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of 'The Great Divide - Noah Kahan' fluctuated between 74.5c and 98.9c several times. This was likely due to large orders sweeping an illiquid order book, but prices quickly recovered to near 99c as his projected victory remained fundamentally unchallenged. April 28, 2026, the prices of almost all underdog options (e.g., Olivia Dean, Ella Langley, BTS) abnormally spiked from under 1c to roughly 50c for a brief moment before crashing back down. This was likely due to an illiquid market experiencing a 'fat finger' trade or short-term market manipulation. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of 'The Great Divide - Noah Kahan' surged from roughly 41.5c to 97.5c, while all other options crashed from around 41c to under 1c. This was driven by the release of first-week tracking projections indicating Noah Kahan would debut at #1 by a wide margin.

While tracking critical global shipping lanes is standard practice for supply chain and geopolitical analysis, betting on the exact weekly transit volume of a specific strait is relatively niche and hardcore for general prediction market participants.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical chokepoint for oil transport. A drastic reduction in transit numbers would strongly signal a geopolitical crisis or military blockade in the Middle East. Such an extreme scenario would trigger a massive spike in Crude Oil prices, drive capital into safe-haven assets like Gold, and likely cause a significant sell-off in broad equities like the S&P 500 due to energy inflation fears.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the '50-74' option surged from 17c to 33.5c, while the '25-49' option retreated from 77.5c to 64.5c. This was because, as the deadline approached, market projections indicated a higher likelihood that the final cumulative ship transit volume might cross the 49-ship threshold into the 50-74 range. April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the '25-49' option surged from 46c to 77.5c before settling at 67.5c, and '50-74' fluctuated significantly (oscillating between 17c and 30c), while '<25' dropped from 14c to near zero. This occurred because, as the weekend approached, the latest IMF transit data ruled out the extremely low volume scenario, causing capital to concentrate on the two most probable ranges and adjusting expectations between them based on updated daily figures. April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of the '25-49' option surged from 19c to 77.5c, '75-99' plummeted from 61.5c to 0.3c, and '50-74' dropped from 56.5c to 17c. This occurred because as the week progressed, new daily transit data was released, resolving early market uncertainty and causing capital to rapidly concentrate on the 25-49 range. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The price of the '<25' option plummeted from 51c to 4.5c, while the '25-49' option surged from 19c to 62c. The reason is that as the final week of April progressed, maritime tracking data consistently showed about 10-15 vessels transiting daily, effectively ruling out the extremely low scenario (<25). Capital logically reconverged into the '25-49' and '50-74' brackets. April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The prices of '<25', '25-49', and '50-74' options experienced violent fluctuations. The price of '<25' plummeted from 45c to 5.5c, bounced to 51c, and settled around 11c; '50-74' dropped from 45c to 23.5c, spiked to 56.5c, and fell back to 26.5c. The reason is likely early market disagreement on interpreting daily traffic data. As the week progressed, daily averages became clearer, leading capital to rebuild consensus around the 25-49 range, while speculative money continues to bet on extreme low or slightly higher ranges.