It is approximately 2:30 PM in Wuhan. Real-time data (Google/AccuWeather) indicates the current temp...

2026-03-21 03:15 - 2026-03-21 05:25, the price of 16°C surged from 2.7c to 19.2c. This was likely due to panic hedging based on cooler morning cloud cover or an overreaction to specific airport (ZHHH) readings, despite contradicting mainstream real-time data showing 17°C. 2026-03-20 22:55 - 2026-03-21 05:25, the price of 19°C dropped from 29c to 21c, as market sentiment irrationally shifted towards the cooler 16-17°C range.

Significant divergence exists. The market assigns a 19% probability to 16°C, whereas mainstream sources (Google, AccuWeather) show the real-time temperature is already 17°C with forecasts aiming for 18-19°C. Market pricing is lagging behind the afternoon warming trend.

According to the latest NWS Point Forecast specifically for LaGuardia Airport (KLGA), the high tempe...

March 20-21, 2026: '56-57°F' climbed steadily from ~32c to 38.5c, and '54-55°F' rose from 27c to 30c. This consolidation was driven by the approach of Saturday, as NWS and major models (GFS/ECMWF) pinpointed the forecast to exactly '56°F', removing earlier ambiguity. March 18-19, 2026: '52-53°F' crashed from 28c to single digits (~4c), while '60°F or higher' briefly spiked before retracing. These moves resulted from model corrections regarding the timing of the cold front, which eliminated extreme cold or heat scenarios for Saturday and forced a rapid market consensus convergence toward the 'Mid-50s'.

The primary resolution source, Wunderground, explicitly forecasts a high of 81°F (~27.2°C) for March...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While not as mainstream as political elections, it is not extremely absurd (like an alien invasion). It belongs to a niche market; it might seem random to the general public but is standard for weather derivatives traders.

March 20, 2026 (Last 24h), the price of '27°C' collapsed from ~10c to 4.5c, while '30°C' surged from ~20c to 26c, and '29°C' remained high above 30c. The reason is likely market participants misinterpreting 'Sunny' icons as a signal for extreme heat or chasing momentum, ignoring the explicit Wunderground forecast of 81°F (27°C). This move against the data creates a massive value gap. March 17 - March 19, 2026, the price of '34°C or higher' crashed from 26c to 1.6c as meteorological models solidified around a cooler pattern (~28°C), ruling out extreme heat.

Market pricing implies 29°C (31.5%) and 30°C (26%) are the most likely outcomes, totaling over 57%. However, the resolution source Wunderground forecasts only 81°F (27°C), and mainstream media like AccuWeather forecast 82°F (28°C). The market is not only overestimating the temperature but completely ignoring the direct data from the resolution source, creating a significant divergence.

The resolution source Wunderground's latest forecast for Ankara (Esenboğa/LTAC) on March 21 projects...

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '11°C' climbed further to an intraday high of 42.5c (before retreating to 39c), while '10°C' experienced sharp volatility, spiking from 29c to 37.5c and then falling back to 30.5c. This was due to the approaching settlement (within 24 hours), where slight adjustments in weather models regarding rain timing and intensity caused forecasts to oscillate between 50°F (10°C) and 52°F (11°C), forcing the market to find equilibrium. March 17, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of the '13°C or higher' option plummeted from 26c to 8c, because as the forecast window entered within 48 hours, major weather models confirmed the presence of cooler air or precipitation systems, significantly reducing the probability of temperatures exceeding 13°C, triggering panic selling.

Divergence exists. Polymarket pricing favors 11°C (39%) as the primary outcome, aligning with the resolution source Wunderground's forecast (52°F/11°C). However, Google Weather and The Weather Channel forecast 50°F (10°C), providing strong support for the 10°C option. The market price reflects a correct bias towards Wunderground as the resolution source, but 10°C retains significant external data backing.

With less than 17 hours to settlement, the specific resolution source, Wunderground, explicitly fore...

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of 96-97°F dropped from 24c to 7.5c as primary forecast sources like Wunderground and WFAA locked in on a high around 94°F, reducing earlier expectations for extreme heat breaching 96°F. March 17, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of 94-95°F rose steadily from 24c to 35c (consolidating near 30c) as forecasts confirmed the Saturday warming trend, establishing this bucket as the optimal heat-island adjusted outcome. March 17, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of 98°F or higher crashed from 25.5c to 2.5c as early fears of extreme heat subsided and models corrected to show hot, but not record-shattering, temperatures.

A slight inversion exists. The market currently prices 92-93°F as the favorite (33c), slightly above 94-95°F (30.5c). However, the specific resolution source, Wunderground, explicitly forecasts a high of 94°F for Saturday, with AccuWeather at 95°F. The market appears to be over-hedging against the more conservative NWS forecast of 91°F, leaving the 94-95°F bucket undervalued relative to the resolution source's own data.