Largest private company end of June?
Finance|$33.6k Vol|
time40 days 18 hrs

Largest private company end of June? - AI Found +42.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.19 22:48
Top Undervalued
+42.5¢
SpaceX(No)
+26.9¢
OpenAI(Yes)
+4¢
Databricks(Yes)

Largest private company end of June? AI analysis: • +42.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on recent private market valuations, SpaceX (valued at over $200 billion) and OpenAI (over $80...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?
Sports|$1.8m Vol|
time5 days 6 hrs

EPL – Which Clubs Get Relegated?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
West Ham(Yes)
+0.1¢
Tottenham(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Prediction market prices have remained highly stable over the past few days, with the implied relega...
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Hedging
MANU
Relegation from the EPL has massive financial implications (loss of broadcast revenue and brand value) for listed clubs like Manchester United (MANU). While relegation is highly unlikely for a giant like Man Utd, if it were to happen, the stock impact would be catastrophic (Score 5). For other non-listed clubs, there are no direct tickers. Overall, this acts as a specific equity risk event.
AI Analysis
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Elections|$105.2k Vol|
time192 days 6 hrs

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Vassil Terziev(Yes)
+1.5¢
Nikolai Denkov(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market data, Iliana Iotova, as the incumbent Vice President and core figure of t...
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AI Analysis
English Premier League - Top 4 Finish
Soccer|$1.8m Vol|
time5 days 6 hrs

English Premier League - Top 4 Finish

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Liverpool(Yes)
+0.1¢
Aston Villa(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Over the past few days, the prediction market prices for both Aston Villa and Liverpool have remaine...
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Hedging
MANU
This event is primarily correlated with publicly traded football club stocks. Manchester United (MANU) is listed on the NYSE; securing a top-4 finish (and thus Champions League qualification) has significant financial implications for future broadcasting revenue and commercial value, enough to move the stock price. Other options like Tottenham or Arsenal may have indirect links or private ownership, making MANU the most direct hedge.
AI Analysis
English Premier League – Last Place
Soccer|$699.7k Vol|
time5 days 6 hrs

English Premier League – Last Place

Top Undervalued
+1.3¢
Wolves(No)
+0.1¢
Burnley(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of May 21, 2026, the Premier League season has only days left. Current market prices have remaine...
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AI Analysis
English Premier League - Top Goalscorer
Sports|$3.7m Vol|
time5 days 6 hrs

English Premier League - Top Goalscorer

Top Undervalued
+0.1¢
Alexander Isak(No)
+0.1¢
Nicolas Jackson(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of May 21, 2026, the 2025-26 Premier League season has concluded or has only one matchday left. E...
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Rule Risk
While 'Top Goalscorer' is a standard sports statistic, the tie-breaker rule in this market presents a significant risk. Typically, sportsbooks treat ties as a 'Dead Heat' (splitting the payout), but this market explicitly states that if multiple players tie, the winner is determined by 'whose last name comes first alphabetically'. This is a non-sporting, arbitrary rule that serves as a major trap for users who do not read the fine print carefully. For example, if Haaland and Salah tie, Haaland (H) wins and Salah (S) goes to zero.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
SpaceX
YesNo
92.5¢
7.5¢
50¢
50¢
+42.5¢
OpenAI
YesNo
3.05¢
96.95¢
30¢
70¢
+26.9¢

Expand to view all 12 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
There is moderate rule risk. The market resolves strictly based on private market valuation data from a specific source (NPM/SecondMarket), with specific contingencies for update times, missing data, M&A, and IPOs. Issues with the data source could lead to resolution disputes.
Divergence
Mainstream market data shows SpaceX's valuation exceeding $200 billion, far surpassing other private companies. However, in the prediction market, SpaceX's price is only 42.5c, implying a probability lower than reality. This might be due to market participants' over-concern regarding the specific NPM data source or potential liquidity events (like IPOs or fundraising) in the upcoming months.

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