What price will Bitcoin hit on May 23?
Crypto|$64.7k Vol|
time16 hrs 51 mins

What price will Bitcoin hit on May 23? - AI Found +31.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+31.7¢
↓ 73,000(Yes)
+25.3¢
↓ 74,000(No)
+8.3¢
↑ 76,000(No)

What price will Bitcoin hit on May 23? AI analysis: • +31.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Karachi on May 23?
Weather|$10.3k Vol|
time51 mins

Highest temperature in Karachi on May 23?

Top Undervalued
+80¢
36°C or higher(No)
+40¢
35°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest Wunderground weather forecast indicates that the highest temperature for Karachi (Masroor...
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Exotics
Predicting the maximum temperature of a specific city on a single day is a niche market. While straightforward, it generally only attracts weather enthusiasts or specialized data traders rather than the broader public.
Movers
Between May 21 and May 22, 2026, the price of the '35°C' option surged from 25c to 41.5c before settling at 32c, driven by fluctuations in short-term meteorological models which prompted market repricing. On May 22, 2026, the price of the '34°C' option rose from 8.5c to 23.5c, as updated forecasts closer to the expiration date pointed strongly to 93-94°F (approx. 34°C), increasing the probability of this outcome.
Divergence
Market prices currently assign the highest probability to '36°C or higher' (46c). However, the latest official forecast from Wunderground predicts a high of around 93°F to 94°F (corresponding to 34°C) for May 23. The market appears to be lagging or assigning an excessive risk premium for extreme heat, leading to a divergence between market pricing and the actual forecast.
AI Analysis
What are the exact resolution rules for this Karachi temperature market, and how does the Wunderground data from Masroor Airbase determine the winning bracket?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 23?
Weather|$30.7k Vol|
time51 mins

Highest temperature in Manila on May 23?

Top Undervalued
+66¢
37°C(No)
+5¢
38°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest forecasts from Wunderground and other meteorological sources, the expected high ...
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Exotics
This is a standard weather prediction market. While forecasting the exact highest temperature for a specific city on a particular day isn't a mainstream daily conversation topic, it is a common genre in prediction markets and weather derivatives.
Movers
May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the 36°C option surged from 25.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, weather models have converged around 96°F (approx. 35.5°C), making it the most likely rounded outcome. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The price of the 38°C option plummeted from 23c to 4c, due to updated forecasts showing thunderstorms, which significantly diminishes the chances of extreme heat. May 21, 2026 - May 22, 2026: The 34°C option experienced high volatility, dropping from 17.5c to 3.1c before rebounding to 13.5c, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the cooling effects of cloud cover and rain.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules simply: what exactly are the win/loss conditions for this Manila temperature market, and what happens if Wunderground's data is delayed?
CO-07 House Election Winner
Politics|$16.5k Vol|
time163 days 12 hrs

CO-07 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+4.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Colorado's 7th Congressional District (CO-07) is considered a 'Solid Democratic' district. Incumbent...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest campaign updates for CO-07 and analyze the Polymarket order book; considering the extremely low volume of $819, assess whether the current bid-ask spread poses significant liquidity risks and if the price has deviated from its fundamental fair value.
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 23?
Weather|$28.0k Vol|
time51 mins

Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 23?

Top Undervalued
+70¢
33°C(No)
+10¢
34°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data, the weather in Guangzhou on May 23, 2026, is expected to ...
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Movers
Between May 21, 2026 and May 22, 2026, the price of the 30°C option plummeted from 18.8c to 6c, and the 34°C option dropped from 19c to 7c, while the 32°C option surged from 19.5c to 31c. This was caused by the approaching resolution date; the latest weather forecasts provided a much more concentrated and accurate prediction of the temperature range, ruling out the possibilities of both lower and higher outlier temperatures, causing funds to concentrate on the most likely range.
AI Analysis
What are the exact resolution rules for this Guangzhou temperature market, and how is the Wunderground data at Baiyun International Airport (ZGGG) finalized?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 23?
Weather|$44.1k Vol|
time51 mins

Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 23?

Top Undervalued
+65¢
24°C(No)
+20¢
25°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Wunderground forecast, the high temperature for Qingdao Jiaodong Internation...
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Exotics
Predicting the specific highest temperature of a particular city on a given day is rarely a serious guessing topic in daily life, making it somewhat niche. However, in the realm of prediction markets, daily weather derivatives are a relatively mature and common category.
Movers
Between May 21, 2026 and May 22, 2026, the price of the 23°C option dropped from 28.5c to 13.5c before rebounding to 21c. This volatility was caused by slight adjustments in weather forecasting models for the exact high temperature on the eve of the resolution date, leading to a reallocation of market funds between the 23°C and 24°C options.
AI Analysis
Check the historical reliability of Wunderground's ZSQD (Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport) station data: are there any risks of delayed updates or missing data for the highest temperature on May 23?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↓ 73,000
YesNo
7.6¢
95¢
39.3¢
60.7¢
+31.7¢
0¢
↓ 74,000
YesNo
37¢
66¢
8.7¢
91.3¢
0¢
+25.3¢

Expand to view all 16 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, 0.0080, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Positive Factor 2: Distance to Yesterday Low Ratio, 0.0030, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday support test: distance of price relative to yesterday low Negative Factor 1: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0180, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0020, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 3: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0260, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 4: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0750, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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