What price will Ethereum hit on March 20?
Crypto|$32.9k Vol|
time11 hrs 41 mins

What price will Ethereum hit on March 20? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+6.1¢
↑ 2,200(Yes)
+4.7¢
↓ 2,100(Yes)
+0.6¢
↓ 1,950(Yes)

What price will Ethereum hit on March 20? AI analysis: • +6.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
Elections|$64.5k Vol|
time227 days 7 hrs

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
Republican(Yes)
+1¢
Democrat(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although Wisconsin is structurally a quintessential swing state, current market pricing reflects str...
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political analysis (e.g., Cook Political Report or Sabato's Crystal Ball) typically classifies Wisconsin as a 'Toss-up' or 'Tilt' state, implying win probabilities between 45%-55%. However, the prediction market assigns a 75% probability to the Democrat, pricing it effectively as 'Safe/Likely'. This divergence suggests traders are aggressively pricing in the macro factor of 'midterm penalty for the President's party,' whereas traditional media focuses more on the state's structural swing nature.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest data for the 'Wisconsin Governor Election Winner' on Polymarket to analyze the current bid-ask spread and order book depth for a $1,000 entry. Combine this with user discussions regarding potential nominees (e.g., successors to Tony Evers or GOP challengers) to update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk.
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21?
Weather|$144.1k Vol|
time19 hrs 41 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21?

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
4°C(No)
+9.5¢
6°C or higher(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although Environment Canada (EC) downgraded Saturday's high forecast to 5°C (with some tables still ...
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Movers
March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '6°C or higher' crashed from 66c to 28.5c, while '4°C' surged from 10c to 33.5c and '5°C' rose from 14c to 30c. The driver was Environment Canada updating Saturday's forecast, downgrading the expected high from 9°C to 5°C (some sources say 7°C) and warning of mixed precipitation or lingering cold air, triggering panic selling of the high-temp option in favor of cooler outcomes. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '6°C or higher' rallied from 26c to 66c as short-term models briefly indicated a warm front would dominate, alleviating cold air concerns.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists: Mainstream outlet The Weather Network (TWN) still forecasts a high of 9°C for Saturday, whereas Polymarket pricing implies the most likely temperature is only 4°C. The market is positioned more pessimistically than even the official Environment Canada forecast (5°C) and is completely fading the warmer TWN outlook.
AI Analysis
Visit the Polymarket page for 'Highest temperature in Toronto on March 21' to analyze the thin order book (given the ~$5 volume) and current spread, and assess the fair value based on immediate weather fundamental data vs. the current odds.
PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Winner
Sports|$121.9k Vol|
time1 days 7 hrs

PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Winner

Top Undervalued
+31.6¢
Matt McCarty(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
31¢
Arbitrage
16800%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on Matt McCarty (Price ~0.684). Plan Description: This is a virtually risk-free 'free money' opportunity. Matt McCarty is currently at +3, T100, 10 st...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
The market is in a state of extreme irrationality. According to live data from March 20, Sung-Jae Im...
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Movers
March 19 - March 20, 2026, prices for players like Matt McCarty, Seong-Hyeon Kim, Max McGreevy, and Adrien Dumont De Chassart spiked from under 1c to the 25c-35c range instantly, despite no positive news (and often facing elimination). This collective surge completely contradicts their actual performance (most are near the cut line) and is likely caused by a severe market maker algorithm failure or liquidity crunch resulting in a squeeze. March 20, 2026, despite Sung-Jae Im taking the tournament lead (-7), his price is suppressed around 12c, indicating that market capital is erroneously locked in the aforementioned 'junk' stocks, causing a breakdown in the market's pricing mechanism.
Divergence
The market is severely detached from reality. In reality (mainstream media and leaderboards), the tournament leaders are Sung-Jae Im (-7), Brandt Snedeker (-6), and Pierceson Coody (-4). However, in the prediction market, the highest-priced options are Matt McCarty (31c) and Seong-Hyeon Kim (30c), both of whom are actually on the verge of missing the cut (+1 to +3). This price inversion is extremely rare and indicates the market is completely ignoring live scoring data.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the Valspar Championship Winner event to analyze the Order Book (specifically odds for favorites like Xander Schauffele or Viktor Hovland) and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and withdrawal risks.
# of seats won by GS in Slovenian Parliamentary Election?
Politics|$21.1k Vol|
time1 days 7 hrs

# of seats won by GS in Slovenian Parliamentary Election?

Top Undervalued
+58.5¢
<25(Yes)
+33¢
25-29(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 2 days until the Slovenian Parliamentary Election (March 22, 2026), major polls (e.g....
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Movers
March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '30-34' rebounded from 6.5c to 17c, and '40+' bounced from 1.2c to 6c. This sudden rally in long-shot options lacks fundamental support (GS polling remains poor) and resembles a 'dead cat bounce' or hedging activity by speculative capital in a low-liquidity environment. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of '<25' (the most fundamentally sound option) irrationally crashed from 46c to 29.5c, while '25-29' surged from 36c to 50c. This price action, completely contrary to polling trends, strongly suggests market manipulation or severe slippage caused by a lack of counterparties.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Major polls consistently place GS support at 15-20%, which mathematically corresponds to '<25' seats. However, the Polymarket currently prices '25-29' as the favorite (45c) and suppresses '<25' to 31.5c. This pricing implies that market participants are either betting on a historic polling error or that the market is dominated by irrational capital.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest Slovenian election polls (specifically for Freedom Movement/GS), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book structure given the extremely low liquidity ($30 volume), and combine with 2022 historical seat data to assess the fair value and potential odds discrepancies of each option.
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Trump|$35.4k Vol|
time6 days 7 hrs

What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?

Top Undervalued
+23¢
Hezbollah / Hamas(Yes)
+13¢
Call your Democrat / Call a Democrat(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current simulated date is March 20, 2026. 1) **Geopolitical Dominance (Hormuz/Lebanon/Threat)**: Wit...
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Exotics
This falls into the highly customized 'Political Bingo' category. Participants are betting on specific vocabulary (slogans, locations, or catchphrases) used during a press briefing rather than substantive political outcomes. This micro-betting on rhetorical details is niche and novelty-driven.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Sponsor of Terror' surged from 41c to 61.5c, driven by the deteriorating situation in Iran and the White House's increasing tendency to label the regime. March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'AI / Intelligence' rose from 41c to 65.5c, likely due to expected briefings on AI's role in intelligence or cyber warfare. March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Illegal Alien' rebounded from 40c to 63.5c, indicating that while foreign policy dominates, immigration is returning as a core GOP talking point. March 16, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Threat' surged from 41c to 74.5c, reflecting generalized war rhetoric. February 25, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of 'Illegal Alien' plummeted from 83c to 40c due to a dramatic news cycle shift from border issues to the Iran war (Operation Epic Fury) and Hormuz crisis.
Divergence
Divergence exists. The market pricing for 'Regime 10+ times' (54%) seems overly optimistic; hitting that threshold requires repetitive messaging that is difficult to sustain in a briefing likely split between the 'SAVE Act' and foreign policy. Conversely, 'Go ahead 5+ times' (51.5%) is undervalued; as a procedural phrase used to manage reporters, it is structurally inherent to the format regardless of the topic, warranting a higher probability than currently priced.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Analyze the low-liquidity order book (Volume ~$6) and check the Roll Call/Factbase schedule to confirm if a briefing is actually planned before March 31, assessing the risk of the market resolving to 'No' due to a lack of eligible events.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↑ 2,200
YesNo
20¢
83¢
26.1¢
73.9¢
+6.1¢
0¢
↓ 2,100
YesNo
38¢
68¢
42.7¢
57.3¢
+4.7¢
0¢

Expand to view all 13 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0220, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0040, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0130, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0560, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

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