The market is in a state of extreme irrationality, with the sum of all 'Yes' prices creating a total...

March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026: Brad Cohen skyrocketed from 17.5c to 35c, Tennille R. McCoy from 2.5c to 17.9c, and Michael Anderson from 4.8c to 17.3c; simultaneously, Susan Altman plunged from 31c to 23.5c. Reason: Highly unusual capital flow detected. Buyers appear to be systematically bidding up all second-tier candidates, pushing the total market implied probability over 150%. This volatility suggests liquidity-driven speculation or manipulation rather than a fundamental shift.

Significant divergence from reality. First, the aggregate implied probability exceeds 150%, which is mathematically impossible. Second, the market is pricing Brad Cohen (35c) as a near-equal to Verlina Reynolds-Jackson (36.5c), conflicting with the district's political geography (Mercer County dominance favors Verlina). Additionally, assigning >35% combined probability to fringe candidates (Anderson, McCoy) contradicts standard primary election dynamics.

Based on the latest Netflix viewership projections (FlixPatrol & simulation data), 'Peaky Blinders: ...

Significant market mispricing. Mainstream data and media unanimously identify 'Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man' as the global #1 for the week. The prediction market assigns irrational probabilities to 'Trolls' (25%) and 'Gaslit' (7.5%), completely ignoring the unlisted de facto winner 'Peaky Blinders'.

Based on NASA/JPL historical data, the base rate for >100kt impacts is ~5.2% (2 events in 38 years)....

While meteor strikes are known natural phenomena, predicting a high-energy impact (100kt level, roughly 1/5 to 1/4 of the Chelyabinsk meteor, or over 6 times the Hiroshima bomb) within a specific year is an exotic tail-risk event. Most people do not routinely consider such specific low-probability catastrophes.

The latest weather forecasts indicate rain for March 27 at Tel Aviv (Ben Gurion Airport), with high ...

March 23, 2026 - March 25, 2026, due to weather forecast corrections eliminating the extreme low temperatures, the price of '18°C' rose from 18c to 34.5c, '19°C' rose from 18c to 33.5c, while '20°C' dropped from 25c to 10.5c. The expected temperature converged to the 17-19°C range. Due to insufficient historical price snapshots, specific volatility over the last 3 days cannot be calculated. Current data shows low trading volume (1.23), suggesting prices may not yet fully reflect the latest meteorological forecasts.

Tennessee is a Safe Republican stronghold. Incumbent Senator Bill Hagerty is running for re-election...

There is a divergence between market pricing and fundamental probability. Mainstream political analysts (e.g., Cook Political Report) would classify the Tennessee Senate race as 'Solid Republican,' implying a win probability near 100%. However, the prediction market currently implies only a ~91% win probability. This divergence stems not from conflicting views on the election outcome, but from the liquidity premium demanded by the market for locking up capital for a long duration (227 days).

CA-17 is one of the safest Democratic districts in California (Cook PVI D+23), making incumbent Ro K...

Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody (appointed 2025) commands dominant support from the GOP establishment...

Significant market mispricing: The market assigns a ~10.5% win probability to Michaelangelo Hamilton, whereas his actual win probability is 0% due to Constitutional age ineligibility (he is 26, requirement is 30).

TX-17 remains a Deep Red stronghold (Cook PVI R+14), where incumbent Pete Sessions effectively secur...

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream forecasters (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) rate TX-17 as 'Safe Republican,' implying a win probability near 99% or 100%. However, the prediction market prices only imply an ~85% chance of a Republican victory, leaving an implausible 15% probability for an upset. This pricing is disconnected from fundamentals, suggesting the market is overreacting to competitive dynamics elsewhere in Texas or lacks liquidity for this specific safe seat.

Incumbent Chris Coons possesses a massive fundraising advantage (>$5M) and is virtually guaranteed t...

The current market price (Yes ~33¢) significantly overestimates the risk. As of March 2026, no BRICS...

This is a moderately exotic geopolitical prediction. While BRICS expansion is a hot topic, the 'exit' of an existing member is not a mainstream discussion point; the focus is usually on who will join. This reverse thinking is somewhat counter-intuitive but still falls within the realm of reasonable geopolitical speculation.

The market pricing (Yes 33¢) implies a roughly 1/3 probability of a BRICS member withdrawing, which is severely detached from the consensus among mainstream international relations experts and geopolitical analysts. Mainstream consensus views BRICS as expanding and consolidating (with several new members added in 2024), and no existing member has signaled an exit. This divergence stems from prediction market participants misunderstanding the definition of 'withdrawal' (mistaking Argentina's refusal to join or Saudi Arabia's delay for a withdrawal) and over-speculating on the bloc's internal politics.

Wyoming is a solid Republican stronghold (Cook PVI R+25). Despite incumbent Senator Lummis retiring,...

With only 6 days until settlement, Viroliubivka remains in the Ukrainian defensive rear (south of Ch...

This is a hyper-specific geopolitical prediction focused on micro-level territorial control in Ukraine. While standard for war forecasting communities, it is a niche topic for the general public requiring specialized knowledge of frontline mapping.

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District (MD-03) is one of the most solid Democratic strongholds in the...

The 2025 layoff total is fixed at 447k (a historic high). While mean reversion suggests a decrease, ...

The rules explicitly state a baseline for 2025 layoffs as 447,000. However, since 2025 is not over, the final FRED data might differ. The rule also says 'resolve Down if there are more layoffs in 2025 than in 2026'. If the actual 2025 total differs from 447k, there is a conflict between the hardcoded number and the comparative logic (2025 vs 2026 actuals). This creates ambiguity.

Severe consensus divergence exists between Polymarket (50%) and Kalshi (87%). Kalshi's high volume (>$4M) suggests its price incorporates superior information (likely a poor start to Q1 2026), while Polymarket remains in an uninformed random walk.

Georgia's 8th Congressional District (GA-08) is a solid Republican stronghold with a Cook PVI of R+1...