As of March 10, 2026, the market price (9.5 cents) has risen significantly from 5 cents in February,...

The rules clearly define a 'military encounter' (use of force, missile strikes, direct engagement), but exclusions (non-violent actions, warning shots, firing into uninhabited areas) create potential grey areas. specifically, the clause regarding 'intentional ship ramming resulting in significant damage' relies on potentially incomplete or biased reporting to define 'significant damage' (e.g., hole in the hull), creating resolution friction.

If this event resolves to 'Yes' (direct military conflict), it represents a classic 'Black Swan' event causing structural shock to global markets. Equities, particularly companies heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains or markets like AAPL and TSLA, would face extreme sell-offs (Score 5). Gold, as a safe-haven asset, would likely surge (Score 5). US Treasury yields would experience high volatility due to flight-to-safety flows. This market serves as a critical hedge for global systemic risk.

The market pricing (approx. 9.5%-11%) is significantly higher than the fundamental forecasts of mainstream geopolitical experts (typically 1%-3% tail risk). The prediction market is sensitively pricing in tactical frictions, whereas the mainstream view tends to believe that even if standoffs occur, both sides will avoid direct 'kinetic' engagement through diplomatic channels, highlighting that traders' fear of miscalculation escalation far exceeds expert consensus.

Despite a 'dead cat bounce' in BJP's price over the last week (recovering from 20c to 23c), this ref...

The election is primarily a contest between the incumbent AITC and the challenger BJP. A surprise victory or significant seat gain for the BJP would be viewed as a major political consolidation for the Modi government, likely triggering a rally in India-focused ETFs (e.g., INDA, EPI). An AITC victory, being the status quo, would likely be priced in with neutral impact. There is no correlation with US domestic assets like the S&P 500.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political observers and recent electoral data (the 11-0 by-election record) suggest AITC's victory is near-certain (>90%), yet the prediction market currently implies a ~23% win probability for the BJP. This discrepancy likely stems from traders being overly cautious due to lingering memories of the 2021 election hype cycle, or arguably overpricing the tail risk of 'black swan' events or unexpected shifts.

The market underwent a violent repricing on March 13, 2026, implying breaking news regarding a sched...

This is a relatively unique question. While diplomatic visits are standard topics, given Rubio's reputation as a China hawk and his current sanctioned status, whether and when he visits China carries significant political drama and uncertainty, making it less routine than standard Secretary of State travel predictions.

If Rubio (presumably as Secretary of State) successfully visits China, it would signal a significant thaw in US-China relations or the lifting of sanctions, which would be a strong bullish signal for China-related assets (like FXI, KWEB). Conversely, a continued inability to visit suggests ongoing diplomatic deadlock. This event directly impacts geopolitical sentiment between the two superpowers.

March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the 'April 30' option price surged from 67c to 85.5c, driven by a likely market reaction to breaking news of a planned visit, shattering the previous low-volatility stalemate caused by sanctions. March 9, 2026 - March 11, 2026, prices remained relatively stable (~66c-72c), primarily reflecting long-term positioning for the year-end APEC summit without immediate short-term catalysts.

Significant divergence exists. Market pricing (>80%) implies a visit is imminent and nearly guaranteed, which conflicts with the long-standing diplomatic consensus regarding Rubio's 'China Hawk' status and active sanctions. Unless a sanctions waiver is officially confirmed, the market is pricing in an outcome far more optimistic than standard geopolitical analysis would suggest.

While the market price remains elevated at 23.5c, this reflects residual hedging premiums following ...

This market is a direct proxy for extreme US equity crash risk. By definition, a circuit breaker implies an intraday drop of at least 7% (Level 1) in the S&P 500, which would be a structural shock (Score 5) to all risk assets. This contract essentially functions as a deep out-of-the-money put option, holding extremely high negative correlation with broad financial assets.

Divergence exists. The prediction market pricing implies a ~23.5% probability of a NYSE circuit breaker (a historic disaster) before year-end, which is significantly higher than mainstream Wall Street macro forecasts. Consensus generally views a correction (-10%) as possible, but a single-day drop exceeding 7% is seen as extremely low probability absent a new global crisis (e.g., war escalation or pandemic). The high prediction market price likely reflects the cost of 'tail risk insurance' rather than neutral probability.

Sarkozy's appeal trial for the Libyan financing case began on March 16, 2026, and is scheduled to ru...

The explicit exclusion of 'house arrest' is the primary risk factor. While Sarkozy has been sentenced, French law often allows sentences to be served under electronic monitoring at home. Headlines might state he is 'serving time,' but if it is via an electronic tag at home, the market resolves 'No,' conflicting with the lay intuition of a conviction. The distinction between physical confinement in jail/prison and home detention is critical.

Eileen Gu was born in San Francisco to an American father, possessing indisputable birthright citize...

This is a highly exotic and speculative topic. While Eileen Gu's citizenship has been a subject of public discourse, betting on the official revocation of a high-profile athlete's citizenship by the US government represents a niche tail-risk scenario, far from mainstream prediction markets.

The primary driver is the latest forecast from the resolution source, Wunderground (IBM data). Googl...

March 21, 2026 11:35 - 17:00, the price of '16°C' surged from 30.5c to 41c, as the resolution-proxy data source (Google Weather/IBM) updated its high forecast explicitly to 61°F (16.1°C), reducing the probability of the previously favored 17°C. March 20, 2026 (Early AM - Morning), the price of '20°C or higher' crashed from ~20c to ~2.5c, as meteorological models reached a consensus that the warm ridge was insufficient to support extreme heat. March 20, 2026 (Early AM - Morning), the price of '14°C' dropped from ~24c to ~15c, as the market realized the 'Midnight High' effect would result in a resolution temperature higher than the actual daytime feel.

Significant divergence exists. The Met Office currently forecasts 17°C for Monday, which conflicts with the resolution source Wunderground (IBM/Google) showing 61°F (16°C) and other European models (Météo-France, Weather25) showing 14-15°C. Market prices are correcting to follow the IBM data (16°C), but the Met Office's 17°C prediction remains a key support preventing the 17°C option from collapsing completely.

BC.Game has just confirmed their withdrawal from the final LAN qualifier for the Cologne Major (Marc...

This is a highly vertical and niche esports market. While the CS2 transfer market is popular within the esports community, focusing on a specific team's (BC.Game) roster changes within a specific window is very niche for the general prediction market.

March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 25c to 46.5c. This was driven by critical negative news on March 18: BC.Game announced their withdrawal from the final Cologne Major qualifier, and data surfaced showing star player s1mple playing more Dota 2 than CS2. This triggered severe market fears of an internal implosion and the likelihood of s1mple benching himself. March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' crashed from 56c to 3.5c due to the Roster Lock for the start of IEM Krakow and the passing of the February transfer window, leading the market to incorrectly assume stability for the remainder of the season.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream consensus (HLTV stats, punditry) confirms BC.Game has missed the Major cycle and s1mple is showing signs of 'checking out' (playing Dota 2). In the CS ecosystem, a crisis of this magnitude typically correlates with an >80% probability of roster changes. However, the prediction market is pricing this at only ~47%, suggesting the market is over-weighting the 'sunk cost' of the recently signed Portuguese trio while underestimating the extreme volatility of a superstar like s1mple when faced with competitive failure.

Based on the March 2026 conflict context, while Iran previously launched high-frequency attacks on G...

This event represents an extreme macro black swan. A 'Yes' resolution implies direct military conflict between Iran and Gulf oil producers (Saudi, UAE), escalating beyond typical proxy skirmishes. This would directly threaten energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, causing a structural shock to Crude Oil prices, a surge in Gold as a safe haven, and a sharp sell-off in global equities due to war panic and inflation fears.

Market pricing (45% Yes) implies a near coin-flip probability of a 'successful, non-intercepted' strike daily. However, mainstream reporting indicates de-escalating attack numbers and effective defense systems. The market is overestimating the marginal probability of a 'clean hit'.

The market is heavily anchored to last week's '100-119' bucket (30c), ignoring the significant upsid...

The rules are relatively clear but present two potential risks: 1. The definition of 'Replies'. While replies generally don't count, those appearing on the 'main feed' are counted. This depends on user action (checking 'Also share to followers') and is hard to distinguish visually via UI, relying heavily on the specific tracker data. 2. The resolution source (xtracker.polymarket.com) might experience outages or data lag, which is common in social media scraping.

This is a specific quantitative prediction about a public figure's social media behavior. While Trump's posting frequency is a common topic, predicting the precise number of posts (including reposts) in a specific week remains a niche and specific novelty market rather than a mainstream macro event.

March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of '100-119' plummeted from 42c to 30.5c, as the escalating 'War in Iran' crisis led the market to realize that Trump's social media activity could spike due to geopolitical events, causing capital to rotate out of the median bucket to reprice upside risks. March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '80-99' dropped from 34.5c to 23.5c, as the start of the new counting period showed early signs that posting frequency was not as low as conservatively expected, prompting a correction towards higher intervals.

Significant divergence detected. Mainstream media (e.g., Washington Post, Axios) are reporting a 'barrage' of posts from Trump on Truth Social regarding the Iran situation, including direct military threats made on Saturday night. This high-intensity 'crisis mode' historically correlates with 30+ posts/day (weekly total >200). However, the prediction market remains conservatively anchored on the '100-119' (~16 posts/day) and '80-99' buckets, failing to price in the frenetic activity described in current news cycles.

New Zealand's authoritative MetService explicitly forecasts 20°C for Wellington on March 24, with no...

March 21, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of 22°C plummeted from 26c to 9c, and '23°C or higher' crashed from 25c to 3.5c, as the approaching date and MetService's clear 20°C forecast eliminated the possibility of extreme heat, bursting the high-premium bubble. March 21, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of 19°C rose from 21c to 31.5c, as capital rotated out of fringe options and consolidated into the central range (19-21°C) aligned with the MetService forecast.

Mild divergence exists: Market pricing (centered on 19-21°C) aligns closely with the local authority MetService (20°C) but largely ignores global major models (e.g., Google/The Weather Channel) which predict a cooler 18°C. The market appears to be betting entirely on local forecasting expertise.

Based on current market dynamics, Rhoda Magbitang remains the overwhelming favorite (stabilizing abo...

March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Rhoda Magbitang's price surged from 71.5c to 89.5c, reflecting the continued digestion and confirmation of the premiere episode results, further solidifying her status as the 'leaked winner'. Mid-February 2026 - March 1, 2026, A massive market inversion occurred: Oscar Diaz crashed from ~65c+ to under 5c, while Rhoda surged from single digits to 80c+. This shift signals that the previous 'insider info' favoring Oscar was debunked (or was a production fake-out), causing a capital flight toward the newly leaked winner, Rhoda.

Market data indicates a significant 'dark horse' scenario. According to mainstream streaming charts ...

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, 'Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man' dropped significantly from 62.5c to 38c, as third-party charts showed the film did not immediately top the rankings upon release, leading the market to realize the threat of the 'Other' option (e.g., 'Gaslit by My Husband'). March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Nobody 2' plummeted from 40.5c to 3.5c due to a massive capital rotation into the newly released 'Peaky Blinders' and a clear decay in its second-week momentum. March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, 'Saw' franchise titles crashed to single digits, confirming that catalog entries cannot compete with new premieres in terms of viewership.

Significant divergence. Polymarket predictors still assign a 38% probability to 'Peaky Blinders', whereas external streaming tracking data (Tom's Guide, FlixPatrol) shows the non-option film 'Gaslit by My Husband' leading over the weekend, with 'Peaky Blinders' notably absent from the top of some lists. Market pricing is lagging significantly behind real-time data.

As of March 11, 2026, with only roughly 20 days remaining until settlement, the window for a coup is...

The definition of a 'coup attempt' holds moderate ambiguity. The key risk lies in distinguishing between government claims of 'foiled plots' (often propaganda) and independently verified 'attempted execution' of a coup. History shows the Venezuelan government frequently claims to foil coups without actual military movement, creating potential disputes. Additionally, 'widely reported' and 'independent sources' are challenging criteria given Venezuela's strict censorship.

Venezuela possesses massive proven oil reserves. A coup attempt could disrupt oil production or trigger sudden shifts in sanctions policy (e.g., US recalibration), directly impacting Crude Oil prices. Chevron (CVX) is a major Western oil company operating in Venezuela, and political turmoil poses a direct risk to its local operations. Although Venezuela's current global production share has diminished, it remains a geopolitical factor significant enough to cause short-term volatility.

The current pricing (16% and 45%) implies a linear escalation risk, with the market pricing model as...

The rule strictly defines 'Beirut' as the 'municipality of Beirut', which is a specific administrative core, distinct from the broader 'Greater Beirut' area or suburbs like Dahieh (a Hezbollah stronghold). There is a risk of confusion where public perception sees operations in suburbs as 'entering Beirut', while the market resolves 'No'. The exclusion of aerial ops and undercover agents clarifies things, but 'troops on the ground' could still be contentious during brief raids or Special Forces incursions.

If Israeli ground forces physically enter the municipality of Beirut, it would mark a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict. Such an event would almost certainly trigger fears of regional oil supply disruptions (especially if Iran becomes more involved), driving up Crude Oil prices. Safe-haven demand would boost Gold, while global equities (like the S&P 500) would likely suffer a short-term sell-off due to increased geopolitical risk premiums. This is a highly tradable macro event.

Significant divergence exists. The market pricing (45% probability of entering Beirut) implies an extremely aggressive military expansion, contradicting the long-standing strategic doctrine of the IDF since 1982 to avoid deep incursions into Beirut municipality. Mainstream military analysis typically expects ground operations to be limited south of the Litani River. This price reflects a specific '2026 Total War' hypothesis rather than the consensus of conventional geopolitical maneuvering.