[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Given the current date is March 2026, analyze key political events in the next 30 days based on the Quebec parliamentary calendar (e.g., the release of the **provincial budget**). Assess how a controversial budget or a non-confidence motion could specifically impact the incumbent CAQ's short-term polling support and trigger volatility in market odds.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Quebec General Election Winner' to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for key parties like the PQ (Parti Québécois) and CAQ. Combine this with current Quebec political sentiment (e.g., satisfaction ratings of the incumbent CAQ) to assess if current odds accurately reflect win probabilities and identify any arbitrage or risk premium opportunities due to liquidity gaps.

[Opportunity Cost] Long-term Capital Opportunity Cost Calculation: Given this event may not resolve until Jan 2026, compare against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi (e.g., 4-5%) to calculate the actual opportunity cost of locking capital for over 18 months, and determine if the potential return justifies this time value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current bid-ask spread and depth. Combine Zelensky's latest stance on 'no territorial concessions' with conflicting reports of Western pressure for negotiations to reassess if the current odds for a peace referendum are undervalued or overvalued.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Compare the odds of "Zohran Mamdani wins 2025 NYC Mayoral Election" with this specific market. Calculate the implied "policy execution probability" (Price of this market / Price of Mayoral Win) to analyze if the market is underestimating the operational risk of opening a physical store immediately after winning, and determine if there is a hedging opportunity to short this market while longing the election win.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for both the "Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store" and the general "2025 NYC Mayoral Election Winner" markets. Analyze the order book depth and price spread to determine if the current price reasonably reflects the double risk of "winning the election" AND "opening a store within 6 months," and identify any pricing deviations or arbitrage opportunities caused by liquidity discrepancies.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Time Decay (Theta) & Ramadan Timeline Analysis: Given that Ramadan 2026 ends around March 19, analyze whether the remaining 12-day window is practically sufficient to finalize a formal treaty, and assess if the accelerating time decay for the 'Yes' side is fully priced in as the March 31 deadline approaches.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for 'New Country joins Abraham Accords by March 31' to analyze the Order Book depth and volume, and update the assessment of fair value and risks, specifically evaluating if the market is accurately pricing the low probability of a major diplomatic breakthrough in the final 30 days considering factors like Ramadan.

[Decision & Action] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Look for highly correlated prediction markets on the platform like 'Brazil Presidential Winner' or 'First Round Vote share' and suggest how to construct a cross-market betting portfolio.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Brazilian election polling data, visit the Polymarket page for the '2nd Place' market to analyze order book depth and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, potential arbitrage, and lock-up risks for key candidates like Romeu Zema and Tarcísio de Freitas.

[Potential Catalyst Prediction] Investigate the schedule for any remaining sealed court documents related to Jeffrey Epstein (the 'Epstein List'). Analyze whether the unsealing of these documents serves as a valid catalyst that could legally force prosecutors to file new criminal charges before the end of 2026, or if statutes of limitations and royal status create an insurmountable barrier for a 'Yes' outcome.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?' market on Polymarket to assess the current implied probability. Combine this with a review of user discussions to determine if recent price movements are driven by substantive legal updates (such as criminal charges being filed) or merely speculative rumors regarding the Epstein document releases.

[Analysis & Reasoning] Given the fast-approaching expiration date of March 31, 2026, analyze the Time Decay (Theta) risk for the 'Yes' side. If no major negative news breaks within the next week, will the 'Yes' price collapse due to the shrinking window? Statistically, is shorting 'Yes' currently a superior play compared to betting on a sudden breaking event?

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket trading data for 'Hegseth out by March 31', analyze the order book depth to gauge if whales are positioning for a sudden exit, and combine this with the latest Washington political sentiment to assess if current odds reflect his actual job stability.

Based on the current bid-ask spread and the cumulative probability of the 6 risks, suggest a specific limit order price for entering the 'Nothing' side that captures value without being filled only during a panic crash.

Retrieve the latest market data for 'Nothing Ever Happens: March', visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity depth for 'Nothing' vs 'Something', review user discussions to identify which of the 6 conditions (e.g., Iran, Fed, Texas) is driving current volatility, and update the assessment of fair value and risk exposure.

[Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital until December 31, 2026; compare the potential return of this prediction market against a compound risk-free rate (e.g., US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoin yields approx. 4-5% APY) to determine the 'breakeven' probability threshold required to justify a position given the nearly 3-year capital lock-up.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book data for 'Ukraine signs peace deal by 2027'; analyze the bid-ask spread and volume ($151k) to assess liquidity risks for a long-term hold, and synthesize recent geopolitical developments (e.g., frontline stalemates, shifts in Western aid) to update the fair value assessment of a 'written diplomatic breakthrough' as defined by the rules.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Given the election is in October 2026, creating a ~7-month lock-up period from now, calculate the opportunity cost of holding positions on favorites like Lula or Tarcísio. Compare the potential maximum ROI of holding these shares to maturity against current risk-free yields in stablecoin DeFi protocols (approx. 5-10% APY) to determine if the odds offer enough premium to justify the liquidity lock.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Analyze the current order book depth for the Brazil 2026 election, focusing on the spread between incumbent Lula and the fragmented right-wing opposition (Tarcísio, Michelle, Jair). Specifically, assess if the market is accurately pricing in Jair Bolsonaro's current legal ineligibility versus the rising momentum of potential successor Tarcísio de Freitas.

[Capital Efficiency] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the market resolves at the end of 2026, calculate the hidden cost of locking up capital for two years. Assuming a high-probability 'No' bet, compare it against current risk-free yields in DeFi stablecoins to analyze if the real annualized return of this long-term bet is worthwhile after deducting the time value of money.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve and analyze the current order book depth on Polymarket for 'US Invade LatAm 2026.' Combined with recent US rhetoric regarding military action against Mexican cartels or diplomatic stances on Venezuela/Haiti, assess if the current odds accurately reflect the real risk of geopolitical friction escalating into actual 'territorial control.'