The market remains in an extreme irrational 'bubble', with the sum of all 'Yes' prices approaching 7...

March 16 - March 19, 2026: Sean Strickland surged from 28c to 51.8c, likely due to irrational fan speculation or misinterpreted interviews, as no official fight booking supports this probability. March 16 - March 19, 2026: Ian Machado Garry crashed from 56c to 34c, likely due to rumors that his next fight isn't for the title or a potential injury delay. March 18 - March 19, 2026: Ciryl Gane surged from 49c to 67.5c, likely driven by rumors regarding the Heavyweight title picture (e.g., Jones retiring or Aspinall injury) positioning him for a vacant title shot.

Significant divergence exists between market prices and reality. The biggest discrepancies are Sean Strickland (52%) and Ciryl Gane (67.5%). Mainstream MMA analysis (ESPN, MMA Fighting) does not view Strickland as a coin-flip favorite to hold gold in 2026 given the queue. Similarly, giving Gane a near 70% chance contradicts expert consensus regarding his grappling deficiencies and the complex heavyweight hierarchy.

As of March 21, 2026, Mamdani has successfully governed for nearly a quarter (approx. 80 days), clea...

The rules contain a critical definitional clause: the market resolves to 'Yes' if Zohran Mamdani does not take office by February 1, 2026. This means the market is not just about him 'leaving' office, but effectively serves as a proxy for 'Will he win the election and take office?'. The title implies 'removal', but the bet implicitly includes 'failure to be elected', creating a significant discrepancy between the title and the resolution criteria.

Zohran Mamdani is a relatively young and controversial left-wing politician (DSA member). While he is a potential contender for NYC Mayor, speculating specifically on 'will he be elected AND leave within a year' is a specific long-tail political prediction, far less conventional than the mayoral election itself.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing (8.5% probability of departure) and mainstream political consensus. typically, the probability of a mayor leaving in their first year without major health issues or active criminal investigations should be below 1%. The high market premium likely stems from the user base of prediction markets (often skewing conservative or libertarian) overestimating the likelihood of governance collapse for a socialist figure, an expectation currently unsupported by material evidence.

For the 'June 30' option: With only 3.5 months remaining and no major breakthrough on the front line...

On March 13, 2026 (today), Cuban President Díaz-Canel officially confirmed direct talks with the Tru...

A US-Cuba economic deal would be a significant geopolitical event. The most directly impacted asset is the Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (CUBA), a closed-end fund targeting Cuba-related opportunities, which typically moves violently on thawing relations news. Additionally, major cruise lines (CCL, RCL, NCLH) would directly benefit from reopened Cuban itineraries and tourism revenue. Broader indices would see limited impact, but the specific sector value is high.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media (USA Today) reports a deal is 'imminent,' and Cuban officials confirmed talks today, pointing to a high probability (>60%) of an agreement due to economic necessity. The prediction market (48.5%) still prices this as a coin flip, likely over-weighting Secretary Rubio's hawkish reputation or lagging behind today's breaking confirmation.

The total market premium has significantly corrected from the previous 161% to ~105%, eliminating th...

Severe divergence exists. The prediction market currently prices Gunnar Henderson (4c) and Yordan Alvarez (4c) in the <5% 'longshot' tier. However, in mainstream sportsbooks and expert projection models, both are consistently ranked as top-5 favorites for the AL MVP (typically 10-15% implied probability). Market participants appear overly fixated on the 2025 narrative (Judge/Raleigh) while ignoring the objective odds for the fresh 2026 cycle.

With only 9 days remaining until March 31, 2026, considering Nipah's incubation period (typically 4-...

While Nipah is a known deadly pathogen, it is not a current global pandemic focus (like COVID-19 or flu). Predicting the importation of this specific rare tropical disease into the US within a short timeframe represents a niche tail-risk event with moderate attention.

If a confirmed Nipah case is reported in the US by March 31, while it may not immediately lead to COVID-style lockdowns, it would trigger fears of a new pandemic, increasing risk aversion. Major vaccine stocks (e.g., Moderna, Pfizer) could see speculative gains (Impact 3) due to potential R&D needs, while the broader market (S&P 500) might experience a minor panic sell-off (Impact 2). Given Nipah's high mortality rate, even a single case is sufficient to generate significant media attention and localized market reaction.

With only ~15 days remaining until settlement, time decay is the dominant pricing factor. A 'Full Ev...

While Middle East tension is standard, a full U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy represents an extreme tail-risk event. It implies either a rupture in U.S.-Israel relations or a devastating regional war, making it a low-probability 'black swan' scenario rather than a routine topic.

If this event resolves 'Yes', it would signal a catastrophic escalation in Middle East geopolitics, triggering extreme risk-off sentiment. Gold and Crude Oil would skyrocket as primary safe-haven and supply-shock hedges. Equities (S&P 500) would sell off on panic, while US Treasury yields would likely see high volatility due to a flight-to-safety bid. This represents a major structural shock to global markets.

Although the market price has retraced from 88 cents in Feb to 77 cents, likely reflecting impatienc...

This is a combined prediction of a specific team winning a championship and completing a specific traditional ceremony. It is more exotic than simply predicting 'who will win the Super Bowl' because it implicitly includes political/scheduling uncertainties, but it is not completely absurd; it is a derivative of sports betting.

Significant divergence exists. Historical statistics show that the vast majority of Super Bowl champions visit the White House, placing the base rate for this event typically above 90%. However, the current prediction market pricing (77%) implies a ~23% failure probability, which is significantly higher than the historical norm. This divergence likely stems from market concerns regarding the Seattle team's potential political stance or an overreaction to the lack of a announced schedule so far.

As of March 10, 2026, the market price (9.5 cents) has risen significantly from 5 cents in February,...

The rules clearly define a 'military encounter' (use of force, missile strikes, direct engagement), but exclusions (non-violent actions, warning shots, firing into uninhabited areas) create potential grey areas. specifically, the clause regarding 'intentional ship ramming resulting in significant damage' relies on potentially incomplete or biased reporting to define 'significant damage' (e.g., hole in the hull), creating resolution friction.

If this event resolves to 'Yes' (direct military conflict), it represents a classic 'Black Swan' event causing structural shock to global markets. Equities, particularly companies heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains or markets like AAPL and TSLA, would face extreme sell-offs (Score 5). Gold, as a safe-haven asset, would likely surge (Score 5). US Treasury yields would experience high volatility due to flight-to-safety flows. This market serves as a critical hedge for global systemic risk.

The market pricing (approx. 9.5%-11%) is significantly higher than the fundamental forecasts of mainstream geopolitical experts (typically 1%-3% tail risk). The prediction market is sensitively pricing in tactical frictions, whereas the mainstream view tends to believe that even if standoffs occur, both sides will avoid direct 'kinetic' engagement through diplomatic channels, highlighting that traders' fear of miscalculation escalation far exceeds expert consensus.

Despite a 'dead cat bounce' in BJP's price over the last week (recovering from 20c to 23c), this ref...

The election is primarily a contest between the incumbent AITC and the challenger BJP. A surprise victory or significant seat gain for the BJP would be viewed as a major political consolidation for the Modi government, likely triggering a rally in India-focused ETFs (e.g., INDA, EPI). An AITC victory, being the status quo, would likely be priced in with neutral impact. There is no correlation with US domestic assets like the S&P 500.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political observers and recent electoral data (the 11-0 by-election record) suggest AITC's victory is near-certain (>90%), yet the prediction market currently implies a ~23% win probability for the BJP. This discrepancy likely stems from traders being overly cautious due to lingering memories of the 2021 election hype cycle, or arguably overpricing the tail risk of 'black swan' events or unexpected shifts.

The market underwent a violent repricing on March 13, 2026, implying breaking news regarding a sched...

This is a relatively unique question. While diplomatic visits are standard topics, given Rubio's reputation as a China hawk and his current sanctioned status, whether and when he visits China carries significant political drama and uncertainty, making it less routine than standard Secretary of State travel predictions.

If Rubio (presumably as Secretary of State) successfully visits China, it would signal a significant thaw in US-China relations or the lifting of sanctions, which would be a strong bullish signal for China-related assets (like FXI, KWEB). Conversely, a continued inability to visit suggests ongoing diplomatic deadlock. This event directly impacts geopolitical sentiment between the two superpowers.

March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, the 'April 30' option price surged from 67c to 85.5c, driven by a likely market reaction to breaking news of a planned visit, shattering the previous low-volatility stalemate caused by sanctions. March 9, 2026 - March 11, 2026, prices remained relatively stable (~66c-72c), primarily reflecting long-term positioning for the year-end APEC summit without immediate short-term catalysts.

Significant divergence exists. Market pricing (>80%) implies a visit is imminent and nearly guaranteed, which conflicts with the long-standing diplomatic consensus regarding Rubio's 'China Hawk' status and active sanctions. Unless a sanctions waiver is officially confirmed, the market is pricing in an outcome far more optimistic than standard geopolitical analysis would suggest.

1) **Core Narrative (Hormuz/SAVE Act)**: During the peak of 'Operation Epic Fury', the blockade of t...

This falls into the highly customized 'Political Bingo' category. Participants are betting on specific vocabulary (slogans, locations, or catchphrases) used during a press briefing rather than substantive political outcomes. This micro-betting on rhetorical details is niche and novelty-driven.

March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, 'ICE' surged from 38c to 73c, as the SAVE Act debate heated up, narratives around 'non-citizen voting' and 'illegal alien crime' became central to White House messaging, driving a rebound in expectations for mentions of the immigration enforcement agency. March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, 'Commander-in-Chief' rose steadily from 50c to 68.5c, reflecting the White House's tendency to use formal titles to bolster Trump's wartime leadership amidst escalating conflict. March 19, 2026 - March 22, 2026, 'Air / Land / Sea 3+ times' retraced from 75.5c to 63.5c, likely due to market uncertainty over specific phrasing despite continued military operations.

Significant divergence exists on the 'Regime 10+ times' option. The market prices it at only 53c, implying a coin-flip probability. However, based on Leavitt's recent briefing transcripts (6 mentions in opening remarks alone) and the context of all-out war, 'Regime' is the default term for the adversary. Assuming a normal length briefing (with Q&A), the probability of exceeding 10 mentions should be over 75%. The market likely underestimates the repetitive linguistic inertia of spokespersons in high-pressure contexts.

While the market price remains elevated at 23.5c, this reflects residual hedging premiums following ...

This market is a direct proxy for extreme US equity crash risk. By definition, a circuit breaker implies an intraday drop of at least 7% (Level 1) in the S&P 500, which would be a structural shock (Score 5) to all risk assets. This contract essentially functions as a deep out-of-the-money put option, holding extremely high negative correlation with broad financial assets.

Divergence exists. The prediction market pricing implies a ~23.5% probability of a NYSE circuit breaker (a historic disaster) before year-end, which is significantly higher than mainstream Wall Street macro forecasts. Consensus generally views a correction (-10%) as possible, but a single-day drop exceeding 7% is seen as extremely low probability absent a new global crisis (e.g., war escalation or pandemic). The high prediction market price likely reflects the cost of 'tail risk insurance' rather than neutral probability.

Sarkozy's appeal trial for the Libyan financing case began on March 16, 2026, and is scheduled to ru...

The explicit exclusion of 'house arrest' is the primary risk factor. While Sarkozy has been sentenced, French law often allows sentences to be served under electronic monitoring at home. Headlines might state he is 'serving time,' but if it is via an electronic tag at home, the market resolves 'No,' conflicting with the lay intuition of a conviction. The distinction between physical confinement in jail/prison and home detention is critical.

Eileen Gu was born in San Francisco to an American father, possessing indisputable birthright citize...

This is a highly exotic and speculative topic. While Eileen Gu's citizenship has been a subject of public discourse, betting on the official revocation of a high-profile athlete's citizenship by the US government represents a niche tail-risk scenario, far from mainstream prediction markets.