As of March 20, 2026, with only 11 days remaining until March 31, DeepState data indicates Russian o...

There is a critical discrepancy regarding the timeline: the rule text explicitly states a deadline of 'December 31, 2025', while the market options (Feb/Mar) and settlement date (2026) indicate 2026. This inconsistency creates high resolution risk. Additionally, relying on the ISW map icon being 'shaded red' introduces latency risk, as map updates often lag behind actual ground control.

March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, June 30 Yes price plummeted from 66c to 53c, a drop of 13c. The reason is that as mid-March passes without tactical breakthroughs on the Lyman axis (Terny direction), market optimism for a spring/early summer offensive is fading rapidly, forcing bulls to liquidate in the face of a 'static front' reality. March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, March 31 Yes price dropped from 7.5c to 2.4c due to time decay as the expiration approaches with no battlefield miracles.

Significant divergence exists between market pricing and expert consensus. Polymarket implies a near 80% probability of capture by year-end (Dec 31), suggesting a decisive Russian victory. However, the mainstream view from ISW and military analysts characterizes the 2026 campaign as 'attritional' with only 'marginal gains.' Lyman, protected by the Oskil river line and dense forests, retains intact Ukrainian defenses. The market price is extrapolating Russian momentum far beyond current battlefield evidence.

The previously observed rebound in the $300M option (rising from 36c to 44.5c) has proven transient,...

The main risk lies in the definition of FDV and data sources. FDV depends on Total Supply and Price; the definition of Total Supply at launch can be contentious (e.g., whether to include locked tokens). Additionally, the 'most liquid price source' can be highly volatile or subject to manipulation in the early stages. The condition that the market resolves to 'No' if the token doesn't launch by end of 2026 is also a significant time-based risk.

This is a niche market concerning the token launch of a specific crypto startup (USD.AI). Apart from those following DeFi and stablecoin sectors, the general public is likely unaware of it. It represents specific vertical speculation rather than a mainstream topic.

Iga Świątek (Market: 29.5¢) continues to suffer from significant 'surface bias.' The market is overw...

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream sportsbooks typically price Iga Świątek as the overwhelming favorite for Roland Garros with odds ranging from -110 to +110 (implied probability ~47%-52%). However, Polymarket is currently pricing her at only 29.5%, suggesting crypto-prediction market participants are lagging in understanding 'surface' weighting, overreacting to recent hard-court results.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Basket of Yes Options Plan Description: The sum of all 'Yes' prices is currently around 98 cents (Platner 0.73 + Mills 0.245 + trace amounts...

Despite Janet Mills' incumbency advantage, the market has seen no substantial signs of recovery sinc...

Significant divergence exists. Although the sole major poll (UNH) shows Graham Platner leading by an overwhelming 64% to 26% (+38 points), the prediction market only prices his win probability at ~73%. In standard political betting, a 38-point polling lead typically correlates with a price above 90c. The current market pricing reflects skepticism regarding 'single-poll outliers' and an over-reliance on the potential mobilization power of the incumbent Governor's machine.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes Kon Knueppel (68.3c) + Buy Yes Cooper Flagg (31.5c) Plan Description: A minor low-risk yield opportunity exists. The total cost to buy the top two favorites (covering >99...

As the season enters its final weeks, the market is pricing in 'team incentive' as the decisive fact...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: This is a classic statistical arbitrage opportunity. The market price (91.4c) implies only a 91.4% p...

Although the market prices 'Yes' at around 8.6 cents, this reflects a 'longshot bias' typical in pre...

Whether Satoshi will move Bitcoin is one of the oldest and most famous 'unsolved mysteries' in crypto. While not completely absurd (like a resurrection), given that the accounts have been dormant for over a decade, the probability is viewed as extremely low, making this a classic 'black swan' betting market.

If funds flow out of Satoshi's wallet, it would be considered a massive 'black swan' event in crypto history. This would likely trigger extreme market panic (fears of dumping or identity revelation), causing an instant crash in Bitcoin prices and potentially a collapse across the broader crypto market. The correlation is extreme; any such on-chain signal would directly translate into massive volatility.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream blockchain analytics firms (like Arkham) and crypto experts widely regard the probability of Satoshi moving coins as near 0%, believing keys are lost or the holder is permanently inactive. However, the prediction market maintains an implied probability of ~9%. This divergence stems from the 'lottery effect' in prediction markets—traders pay a premium for high-payoff, low-probability events, or simply to hedge against extreme tail risks, preventing the price from converging to its fundamental value (0).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' for 'June 30, 2026' Plan Description: This is an extremely low-risk yield opportunity. The current 'No' price for 'June 30, 2026' is 92.5c...

For the June 30, 2026 option, with only about 100 days remaining, the probability is statistically n...

This is a case of extreme rule conflict. The title asks 'by...?' implying a multiple-choice date question, and the options list dates in 2026 (Dec 31 and June 30). However, the specific Rule text explicitly states the market resolves to 'No' if relations aren't established by Dec 31, 2025. This mismatch—where the rule defines a binary Yes/No for 2025 but the options are 2026 dates—creates massive potential for settlement disputes and user confusion.

While Middle East geopolitics is a common topic, Syria (the Assad regime) remains a core member of the Iranian-aligned 'Axis of Resistance' and is officially in a state of war with Israel. Although there is a trend of Arab nations normalizing ties with Syria, a leap directly to Israel-Syria normalization is a highly bold and unconventional prediction, sitting outside the norms of standard geopolitical forecasting.

If Israel and Syria were to announce diplomatic relations, it would represent a drastic restructuring of the Middle East geopolitical landscape (Score 4-5), implying a massive reduction in Iranian influence or a sudden de-escalation of regional tensions. Such a 'black swan' event would likely cause crude oil prices to plunge (as war risk premiums evaporate) and boost risk sentiment in the region. It serves as a significant geopolitical hedge.

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream geopolitical analysts and think tanks generally view Israel-Syria normalization as impossible without resolving the Golan Heights sovereignty (which Israel won't concede) and severing Syria-Iran ties (which Assad cannot do). However, prediction market prices (especially the 17% for December) still reflect a 'black swan' expectation, likely driven by a belief in forceful US (Trump administration) diplomatic intervention. The market pricing is significantly higher than the probability derived from realpolitik analysis (<5%).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No Plan Description: This is a classic 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. Buying 'No' at ~97.75c yields a 2.25c profit over ~1...

Despite the price holding above 2c due to debris reports in Poland (Krzywierzby), the contract's res...

While definitions are precise (requiring ground impact), attribution to 'Russian military forces' (excluding proxies) and the exclusion of 'intercepted debris' (even if damaging) could create significant disputes amidst the fog of war. If a missile is intercepted but causes major damage, a 'No' resolution might be contentious. Also, the date range is Sep-Oct 2025, but the option label is March 31, potentially causing confusion.

This is a geopolitical tail-risk event. While not pure fantasy (given past incidents of missiles straying into Poland/Romania), predicting a direct, significant military strike on NATO territory is a non-standard, high-stakes prediction.

This is an extreme black swan event. If it resolves to 'Yes', it implies a potential Article 5 triggering and a prelude to WWIII. This would cause an instantaneous global asset repricing: equities (S&P 500) would crash, while safe havens (Gold, Treasuries) and war assets (Crude Oil, Defense stocks like LMT) would surge. The impact would be structural and massive.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' (85% Option) Plan Description: This is a classic 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. While no direct arbitrage exists, reaching 85% Minds...

With only 10 days remaining until settlement, for Polymarket's Mindshare to spike above 85% on Kaito...

This is a market about a specific metric (Mindshare) within a niche industry (prediction markets/crypto data). While interesting to insiders, it is a very specific and relatively obscure metric for the general public, placing it in the upper-middle range of exoticism.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: With the 'No' option priced at approximately 94.2 cents, investors stand to gain an absolute return ...

Jeffrey Epstein's death in August 2019 is an established fact confirmed by official autopsies, FBI i...

This is a quintessential conspiracy theory market. While the circumstances of his death are controversial (the 'Epstein didn't kill himself' meme), his death is official fact. Betting that he is secretly alive and will be revealed as such is highly fringe and detached from mainstream reality.

The market price implies a ~6% probability that Epstein is alive, showing a massive divergence from the '0%' consensus held by mainstream media, law enforcement (FBI/DOJ), and medical examiners. The pricing is driven entirely by social media sensationalism and entrenched conspiracy beliefs regarding 'deep state' narratives, rather than any objective evidence.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' - Rank 2 Plan Description: While a technical direct arbitrage exists (Sum of all Yes options = 99.65c), the annualized yield is...

With Q1 2026 (Jan-Feb) data locked in at 5th place historically and lingering La Niña conditions, gl...

Significant divergence. The prediction market assigns a ~60% probability that 2026 will be a Top 2 hottest year (Rank 1+2). Conversely, mainstream science (NASA/NOAA models) and real-time observation data indicate that due to a cool start and lack of strong El Niño support, 2026 will almost certainly rank behind 2023 and 2024. Market pricing reflects a simplistic 'Global Warming always equals Hotter' linear bias, contradicting cyclical meteorological facts.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' on all candidates (Buy the Field) Plan Description: The sum of all 'Yes' prices is currently ~97.3 cents (59.7+12.75+6.65+...). This means buying 'Yes' ...

With less than 2 days until the election, César Dockweiler maintains a decisive polling lead of ~10 ...

March 19-20, 2026, César Dockweiler saw extreme volatility, crashing from ~70c to a low of 20.2c due to liquidity drying up or panic selling, before rapidly recovering to 66c and stabilizing around 60c within 24 hours as the market reaffirmed his frontrunner status. March 19, 2026, Jhonny Plata's price briefly spiked to 12c before falling back to ~3c, a move disconnected from fundamentals (~7% polling) indicating speculative noise. March 16-20, 2026, Miguel Roca's price remained stubbornly high in the 7c-15c range despite polling near zero, confirming the persistent 'name confusion' effect.

Significant divergence exists. The glaring anomaly is Miguel Roca, priced at ~13% implied probability despite polling under 1%, a classic case of market irrationality (candidate confusion). Secondly, César Dockweiler is priced (~60%) well below his poll-implied win probability (>80%), suggesting the market is overly cautious and inefficient on the eve of the election.

Today is March 20, 2026. Jerome Powell's current term as Fed Chair is scheduled to expire on May 15,...

Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option 'No' Plan Description: Option 'No' is trading at ~95.25c, implying a ~4.75% invasion probability. Given the Mar 19 US intel...

The US Intelligence Community's Annual Threat Assessment released on Mar 19, 2026, explicitly states...

If this event occurs (resolves Yes), it would trigger a structural collapse in global financial markets. TSMC (TSM) and the semiconductor supply chain (NVDA, AAPL, etc.) would be hit hardest, causing a violent crash in the Nasdaq. Safe-haven assets like Gold, DXY, and Crude Oil would surge. This prediction market serves as a prime 'doomsday hedge' instrument.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market pricing (~5%) retains a substantial 'fog of war' premium, likely due to irrational fears of the Middle East's 'Operation Epic Fury' spilling over into Asia. However, the mainstream consensus (Mar 19 US Intel report, military experts) assesses no near-term invasion intent, and physical logistical preparations are nonexistent. The market price is significantly detached from the <1% probability implied by expert consensus.