Diomande leads with 2 red cards and holds the tie-breaker advantage (alphabetical: D comes before E ...

This is a relatively niche sports statistical market. While red cards are common football stats, predicting who will get the *most* over an entire tournament is highly random and involves identifying specific defensive or volatile players, making it moderately exotic.

March 10, 2026 - March 11, 2026, Elliot Anderson's price crashed from 21.4c to 2.95c, likely because his team was eliminated in the Europa League Round of 16 stage. This prevents him from accumulating further red cards to challenge the leader, prompting the market to reprice his odds effectively to zero.

Significant market divergence exists. The total implied probability of 'Yes' options exceeds 130%. Gianluca Mancini and Maximilian Eggestein are priced above 40c despite needing a statistical miracle (3 red cards in one tournament) to win due to the tie-breaker rules. This pricing contradicts football statistical norms, indicating illiquidity or a misunderstanding of the rules by participants.

The logic for a Democratic flip has become irreversible following the confirmed retirement of Don Ba...

With mid-March passing without official announcements, the probability of a Q1 (Mar 31) launch is ef...

March 13, 2026 - March 14, 2026, the price of the 'June 30, 2026' option plummeted from 28c to 9.5c. The reason was a market correction following an anomalous liquidity spike (likely a fat-finger trade or baseless speculation) on March 13, with prices quickly reverting to a rational low reflecting the lack of tangible Q2 progress. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, the price of the 'December 31, 2026' option dropped from 60.5c to 53.0c. The reason is likely 'airdrop fatigue' after a long points campaign and a lack of tangible progress in Q1, leading to a retraction in confidence.

Current date is March 17, 2026. For the March 31 option, with only 14 days remaining and no public r...

The core risk lies in the definition of 'serves any time'. In legal and prediction market contexts, mere booking/processing with brief holding (hours) is typically not considered 'serving time'. As a sitting Governor, even if indicted, Walz would almost certainly be released on recognizance (ROR) rather than face pre-trial detention. 'Yes' likely requires contempt of court or denial of bail, both rare. Buyers may conflate 'arrest' with 'jail time', overpricing 'Yes'.

This is a highly politicized novelty market. It speculates on whether the Federal Government (implied Trump administration context) will imprison a sitting Governor of the opposing party. Such a scenario is historically unprecedented in modern times, representing an extreme political tail risk far beyond standard election or policy forecasting.

If this event occurs, it signifies a major escalation in political polarization and the weaponization of executive power. Direct beneficiaries include private prison stocks (GEO, CXW), correlated with aggressive DOJ/immigration enforcement, and Trump Media (DJT), as the action would be viewed as a political 'win' for the administration. The broader market (S&P 500) might see short-term volatility due to constitutional crisis fears.

The current price of 87.5c is slightly above the fair value of 86c. The drop from the February valua...

The current market is extremely distorted, exhibiting an irrational 'fat-tailed' distribution. First...

From Mar 12, 2026 to Mar 15, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' rebounded sharply from 25c to 39c, while '5m+ sq km' experienced a rollercoaster ride (dropping from 21c to 7c, then back to 18c). This indicates the market is oscillating wildly between two extreme tail risks (extreme melt vs. extreme freeze) in the absence of definitive data, with liquidity games dominating pricing rather than fundamentals. From Feb 24, 2026 to Feb 25, 2026, the price of '<4m sq km' plummeted from 60.5c to 43.5c, while intermediate intervals (4.2-4.6m) saw a collective surge. The reason was a severe mean-reversion correction, fixing the previous irrational over-betting on the extreme melt scenario.

There is a severe divergence between market pricing and scientific consensus. Mainstream climate models and NSIDC data show a long-term declining trend for Arctic sea ice, making a minimum of '5m+ sq km' virtually impossible in the current climate context, yet the market assigns it an ~18% probability. Simultaneously, the market is over-hedging both tails (sum of <4m and >5m is nearly 60%), ignoring the most probable intermediate state (4.0-4.6m), reflecting excessive speculation on tail risks by prediction market participants amidst low liquidity.

The market currently exhibits extreme irrational exuberance, with the sum of implied probabilities f...

March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: Arman Tsarukyan's price crashed from 31.15c to 18.9c (a drop of over 12c) as the market realized the extremely low probability of a title contender fighting an unranked opponent like Pimblett, leading to an exodus of speculative capital. March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026: Conor McGregor's price continued a steady decline from 26.9c to 18.5c, indicating that social media rumors regarding 'Paddy vs Conor' are cooling off and rationality is returning. March 19, 2026 - March 21, 2026: Mateusz Gamrot saw a sharp rebound from 15.5c to 22.5c, likely driven by speculative capital rotating into another 'high-ranked' opponent option following Arman's price collapse.

There is a severe divergence between the market and reality. In reality (mainstream media and expert analysis), Renato Moicano is the most discussed potential opponent for Paddy Pimblett, followed by Dan Hooker. However, this prediction market does not explicitly list Moicano, causing capital to erroneously flow into Benoît Saint Denis (42.5%) and Conor McGregor (18.5%). The total implied market probability (>140%) shows that participants are failing to correctly price the risk of an 'Unlisted Fighter (Other)' result sending all options to zero, a classic retail betting bias.

As of March 16, 2026, Manchester City has played 30 Premier League matches, leaving only 8 games rem...

Extreme pricing inefficiency exists. While the statistical probability of Cherki breaking the record is 0% (requiring 1.5 assists/game in the last 8 matches), the market implies a 2.5% chance. The true divergence is contextual: media attention is focused on Bruno Fernandes (16 assists) as the actual record chaser, while 'zombie capital' remains stuck on Cherki in the prediction market, preventing the price from hitting zero.

Matthew Schaefer's dominance remains unshakable. As the regular season enters its final weeks, nothi...

Dan Koh demonstrates overwhelming dominance with record-breaking Q1 fundraising ($2M+, a Massachuset...

Core Rationale: The resolution source, Wunderground (powered by IBM/The Weather Company), explicitly...

March 20 - March 21, 2026, the price of '29°C' surged from 18c to 33c, and '28°C' continued to rise from 26c to 38.5c, while '27°C' crashed from 17c to 8c. The reason is the market, after recovering from earlier rain panic, appears to have over-corrected towards a 'hot' bias, likely influenced by AccuWeather's higher forecast (29°C) or Sunday's warm weather, ignoring the resolution source Wunderground's forecast for a Monday cool-down (27°C). March 19 - March 20, 2026, the price of the '28°C' option rebounded to 26c from a low of 14c, following a crash from 27c. The volatility was driven by rainy and cool conditions (~22°C) on March 19, causing panic selling (Recency Bias). Prices corrected rapidly as the sunny/warmer forecast was re-assimilated.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket pricing implies 28°C and 29°C are the dominant outcomes (combined >70%), pricing 29°C (33%) far higher than 27°C (8%). However, the resolution source Wunderground's latest forecast explicitly indicates a high of 27°C (80-81°F) for Monday. The market is trading against the resolution source, likely due to traders referencing the wrong source (e.g., AccuWeather) or the wrong date (Sunday's weather).

Despite Take-Two CEO's repeated emphasis on 'value,' the current industry consensus (including autho...

This is not entirely absurd as rising game prices are a hot industry topic and GTA 6 is a massive IP. However, the specific '$100' threshold for a standard edition is still unconventional and high, sparking specific speculative interest, making it a moderately novel market.

This event is directly linked to Take-Two Interactive's (TTWO) pricing strategy. If GTA 6 Standard Edition is priced over $100, it would be a massive industry precedent, potentially significantly boosting TTWO's EPS expectations and causing a notable stock movement. For Sony and Microsoft, the impact is minor, mainly related to platform revenue sharing.

The market pricing (~18.5%) implies a near 20% probability of a $100 standard edition, diverging significantly from the forecasts of the vast majority of industry analysts and media ($70-$80). The mainstream view is that $100 will apply only to 'Deluxe' or 'Collector's' editions, not the 'Standard Edition' required to trigger this market. Participants may be conflating the CEO's PR rhetoric about 'value' with actual base pricing strategy.

The market remains in a state of severe logical inversion (monotonicity violation). Theoretically, i...

The risk lies in the ambiguity of 'launch' and 'publicly tradable'. While the rules specify 'active, publicly transferable and tradable', disputes could arise if a liquidity pool is created on a DEX with negligible liquidity (fake tokens or high slippage). Additionally, calculating FDV relies on accurate Total Supply data, which is often opaque for early-stage projects.

This is a market about the future valuation of a specific, small-cap crypto project (Hurupay). Unless one is a crypto-native user focused on niche airdrops or stablecoin payment sectors, this is unknown to the general public. It is a highly segmented niche market.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and fundamentals. Fundamentally, Hurupay's ICO failed, it currently has no token, and community activity is low, which should suggest very low valuation expectations. However, the prediction market's high prices for $40M and $50M imply an inexplicable confidence in a high FDV launch, which resembles 'zombie pricing' due to lack of liquidity rather than genuine market consensus.