Arbitrage Plan: Buy YES shares of Bayern Munich at $0.9905 Plan Description: This is a typical low-risk yield (soft arb) opportunity. Bayern Munich's title is virtually guarante...

With about 60 days left until the settlement of the 2025-26 Bundesliga season, Bayern Munich's price...

Since Borussia Dortmund (BVB.DE) is the only major publicly listed Bundesliga club, its stock price is highly sensitive to match results and league standings. An unexpected championship win for Dortmund (especially if odds are low late in the season) would likely trigger a significant price increase (Score 3). For Bayern Munich or other non-listed clubs, there are no direct equity proxies. Thus, the primary hedging asset is Dortmund's stock.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares of highly unlikely tail-risk options such as Pope Leo XIV, Charlie Kirk, and Khaled Mashal. Plan Description: The market contains numerous options that are virtually impossible to win the Nobel Peace Prize (e.g...

The market continues to assign irrational premiums to extreme right-wing, controversial, or non-trad...

The rules contain an extremely complex tie-breaker mechanism. Since the Nobel Peace Prize is often awarded to multiple recipients (individuals + organizations, or multiple people), the market sets a specific hierarchy of individuals (Trump > Zelenskyy > Netanyahu > Putin > Musk), followed by 'individual over organization', and finally 'alphabetical order'. This multi-layered conditional logic makes the outcome highly volatile, especially if the winners include a combination of unlisted individuals, where the alphabetical rule could lead to unexpected resolution results.

While the Nobel Prize typically does not drive global macro assets, a win for Elon Musk could trigger significant sentiment-driven volatility in Tesla (TSLA), and a win for Donald Trump would likely boost Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT). Additionally, if the prize goes to key figures in geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Zelenskyy or Netanyahu), there might be a minor geopolitical risk premium reaction in Crude Oil or Gold, though such impact is usually indirect and short-lived.

The market overprices high-profile political figures like Trump and Zelenskyy, whereas the Nobel Committee typically favors humanitarian organizations (e.g., UNRWA), international legal bodies (e.g., ICJ), or grassroots activists. Speculative markets are driven more by news cycles than by the Committee's historical preferences.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No option Plan Description: The resolution time window for this event (end of 2025) has completely passed without a declaration ...

The market rules explicitly state that the US Congress must formally declare war on Venezuela betwee...

There is a massive rule conflict here. The title implies a broad deadline (likely June 2026, based on the option and resolution date), but the detailed rules explicitly restrict the 'Yes' condition to a narrow two-week window between 'December 15 and December 31, 2025'. This discrepancy in timeframe is highly misleading, as users might assume the bet covers any time up to 2026.

A formal US declaration of war on Venezuela is a geopolitical tail risk. While relations are historically tense, a formal declaration (requiring an act of Congress) is extremely rare in modern times. This is a serious geopolitical hypothetical, neither a daily topic nor completely absurd.

Venezuela holds massive oil reserves, and any formal declaration of war would immediately spike crude oil prices due to severe supply disruption risks. Oil majors with operational licenses in the region, like Chevron (CVX), would face direct asset and operational risks. Gold would rise as a safe haven. While the broader equity market might see a risk-off dip, the hedging effect is strongest in the energy sector.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option 'No' Plan Description: Since the objective probability of this event occurring approaches zero, buying Option 'No' at 96.15...

Based on secular rationality and scientific consensus, the probability of 'Jesus returning before th...

While the literal rule is clear, the core risk lies in the 'consensus of credible sources' criterion. For a supernatural event like the 'Second Coming', it is highly unlikely that the scientific community, mainstream media, and religious groups will reach a consensus, leading to high potential for resolution disputes or ambiguity.

This is a quintessential exotic market. It involves religious prophecy and eschatology, completely falling outside standard political, economic, or sports forecasting, representing an extreme niche and speculative topic.

If this event were actually confirmed to occur (resolving Yes), it would imply a fundamental restructuring of the world order or an apocalyptic scenario. All financial asset valuation models would instantly become obsolete, leading to extreme market panic and structural collapse. While the probability is infinitesimal, the potential impact is infinite (Extreme).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for all mutually exclusive options (create a risk-free portfolio) Plan Description: The sum of the Yes prices for all mutually exclusive and exhaustive options (No IPO + all market cap...

As of March 26, 2026, only ~95 days remain until the June 30 deadline. For a massive Government-Spon...

High risk regarding the calculation definition. The GSE capital structure is unique, involving government-held Senior Preferred stock and warrants for 79.9% of common equity. The trap lies in the definition of 'Shares Outstanding': if the government has not fully exercised warrants or converted stakes by Day 1, the 'Shares Outstanding' listed on the exchange could be far lower than the 'Fully Diluted' count. This means even if the company's valuation is $500B, the calculated 'Market Cap' (Listed Shares x Price) could be artificially low (e.g., <$150B), creating a discrepancy between economic value and the resolution figure. Additionally, the distinction between a formal 'IPO' and a mere 'Uplisting' is ambiguous for GSEs.

This event directly dictates the fate of Freddie Mac (FMCC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA) shares. A successful IPO with a high market cap implies a 'Recap & Release' scenario, potentially sending shares multi-bagging. Conversely, 'No IPO' or a harsh dilution plan could crush the stock. Additionally, the liquidity and capital structure of GSEs impact MBS spreads, causing moderate ripple effects on the US 10Y Yield and the Financial sector (XLF) which holds significant GSE debt.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy the 'No' option at $0.962 (96.2 cents). Plan Description: Buying 'No' at 96.2c yields a ~3.8c return upon settlement at 100c. Since the physical feasibility o...

1. **Procedural Time Constraints**: With only ~9 months (277 days) remaining until December 31, 2026...

If Ukraine joins NATO before 2027, it would signify a major escalation or fundamental shift in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (potentially triggering Article 5), leading to extreme geopolitical risk. This would directly benefit Gold (safe haven) and Crude Oil (supply fears) while likely damaging global equity sentiment. Defense stocks (e.g., RTX, LMT) could see volatility due to long-term military commitments.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on '↓ $2.20' (10.5c) and Buy No on '↓ $2.10' (89c). Plan Description: A risk-free arbitrage opportunity (logical inversion) exists. The event '↓ $2.10' (Price <= 2.10) is...

Recent data indicates the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) peaked at $2.20 on Jan 6 and has since ...

This is an economic metric targeting a specific vertical (AI compute market). Although GPU compute has become a commodity-like resource in 2026, the H100 rental price index remains a specialized industry figure, less mainstream than stock indices or exchange rates.

H100 rental prices are a direct barometer of AI compute supply and demand. An unexpected collapse in rental prices (e.g., dropping below $1.50) could signal cooling AI demand or hardware oversupply, creating a significant negative impact on Nvidia (NVDA) stock (Score 3); conversely, sustained high prices support the AI hardware sector.

Significant divergence detected. Industry reports (e.g., Cyfuture Cloud, Mar 6) suggest H100 cloud rental rates are stabilizing in the $2.75-$3.50 range, implying the index could already be near or above $2.75. However, Polymarket prices '↑ $2.75' at only 23.5c (implying 23% probability). If the industry report is accurate, this option is severely undervalued.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for all listed players. Plan Description: The sum of Yes prices for all options currently sits at approximately 99.35c (70.8 + 28 + 11*0.05). ...

Following a tight race in late March, the Rookie of the Year odds have reversed sharply once again. ...

Mar 26, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, Kon Knueppel's price surged from 57.05c to 70.8c, while Cooper Flagg plunged from 42.5c to 28c. This was likely due to a decisive late-season development (such as Flagg resting/injury or Knueppel delivering an award-clinching signature performance), shifting market consensus heavily back to Knueppel. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, Cooper Flagg's price surged from 30.5c to 42.5c, driven by his continued explosive statistical outputs in the final stretch of the regular season, prompting heavy market betting on a potential comeback in the final voting. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 25, 2026, Kon Knueppel's price steadily declined from 70c to 58.8c, while Cooper Flagg rebounded from 28c to 37.5c. This gradual shift occurred because Flagg continued to post elite numbers as the regular season concluded, causing the market to re-evaluate the Rookie of the Year race as a much tighter two-player contest. Mar 18, 2026 - Mar 24, 2026, the market recovered from panic and volatility stabilized. Cooper Flagg's price slowly climbed from a low of 27.5c back to 34c, as the market confirmed the Mavericks were not shutting him down, prompting buyers to re-enter on his statistical upside. Meanwhile, Kon Knueppel retraced from a high of 71.8c to 64.15c, reflecting a rebalancing of capital between the top two contenders. Mar 17, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, Cooper Flagg's price plunged from 36.5c to 27.5c, while Kon Knueppel surged from 63.5c to 71.8c. This drastic move was driven by panic selling over fears that the Mavericks would forcibly rest Flagg to protect their draft position.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes for '3' (0.775) and Yes for '≥4' (0.22) Plan Description: The current Yes price for '3' is 77.5c and for '≥4' is 22c. The sum is 99.5c, which is slightly less...

The confirmed struck country count is already at 3 (Lebanon, Iran, Iraq) with only about 4 days left...

There are subtle exclusions in the rules that require attention. 1. Intercepts do not count, meaning if a missile is shot down and debris falls in a country, it's excluded. 2. Territory definition excludes Israeli-controlled areas, West Bank, and Gaza, but counts embassies as the host country's soil (not the representing country). 3. Methods are limited to drones, missiles, or air strikes, excluding artillery, covert ops, and cyberattacks. These nuances could lead to disputes in complex geopolitical conflicts (e.g., ambiguous zones on the Syrian border or defining Hezbollah targets in Lebanon).

If the number of countries struck by Israel spikes in a single month (e.g., ≥4, likely involving Iran, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, etc.), it signals a significant escalation into a regional war. This would directly impact crude oil supply expectations, causing prices to surge. Gold would rise as a safe haven, while equities might face pressure due to risk aversion. Such geopolitical events are classic targets for tail-risk hedging.

March 25, 2026 15:00 - March 27, 2026 11:25, '≥4' plunged from 60c to 21c (while '3' surged from 38.5c to 80c), as rumors of a potential 4th country strike remained unverified over time, significantly reducing the probability. March 25, 2026 10:40 - March 26, 2026 18:05, '≥4' briefly rose from 33c to 43c before plunging to 22c (while '3' dipped from 65.5c to 54.5c before surging to 76.5c). This was driven by rumors of a potential 4th country strike, which were quickly dispelled as time passed without evidence, strongly reverting consensus to the baseline count of 3. March 25, 2026 09:35 - March 25, 2026 13:55, '≥4' surged from 32.5c to 58c (while '3' crashed from 68c to 42.5c) due to sudden rumors of a potential Israeli strike on a fourth country (like Syria). However, prices quickly reverted within hours as evidence failed to materialize. March 20, 2026 - March 24, 2026, '3' surged from 34.5c to 67.5c, while '≥4' crashed from 65c to 32c. This was due to a panic-buying spike in '≥4' on Mar 20 driven by unverified rumors of conflict expansion. As evidence of a strike on a 4th country failed to materialize over the subsequent days and the Syria/Yemen fronts remained quiet, the fear premium evaporated, reverting consensus to the base count of 3. March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, '3' rose from 35.5c to 47.5c as attribution for the Iraq airstrike clarified Israeli involvement, solidifying the base count expectation at 3.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 1 share of $5B 'Yes' (cost 2.3c) and simultaneously buy 1 share of $7B 'No' (cost 94.4c). Total cost is 96.7c. Plan Description: This is a strictly risk-free arbitrage opportunity. Logically, if the FDV is above $7B, it must also...

As the end-of-year deadline approaches, market confidence in StandX's ability to successfully launch...

This is a market specific to the valuation of a niche crypto project (StandX). While token FDV predictions are common within crypto circles, it is a relatively vertical and niche market for the general public. Compared to Bitcoin prices or election results, its audience is narrower, placing it in the upper-middle range of exoticism (or specialization).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' Muriel Bowser Plan Description: According to the context, Muriel Bowser has announced her non-candidacy. Her current 'Yes' price is ...

The market structure has undergone a fundamental shift. Phil Mendelson's price surged from under 1 c...

March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Phil Mendelson's price skyrocketed from 0.6c to 19.95c before settling at 14.2c. The reason is this sudden surge disrupted the existing duopoly, highly likely corresponding to Mendelson formally announcing his candidacy or receiving a key endorsement, causing a massive repricing of the establishment vote share. March 18, 2026 - March 21, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie experienced severe volatility, bouncing from 34.5c to 49c before dropping back to 42.5c. The reason is the market digesting the shock of Mendelson's entry, with investors reassessing his status as the establishment frontrunner. March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Kenyan McDuffie's price crashed from 47.5c to 30.5c before quickly rebounding. The reason was likely a single large market order wiping out liquidity or a misinterpretation of a specific poll, after which the market quickly corrected the mispricing.

Significant mathematical divergence exists. The combined win probability of the top three candidates (JLG, McDuffie, Mendelson) alone reaches 103.2%. Including the long tail, the market implies a total win probability exceeding 110%. This indicates market inefficiency, as prices have not fully discounted the dilution effect of Phil Mendelson's entry on other candidates (particularly McDuffie). Mainstream consensus would dictate that a three-way race subtracts from existing shares rather than adding to a total exceeding 100%.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option 'No' Plan Description: The price of 'No' is 0.997 (or 99.7 cents), offering a near-certain settlement at $1 in less than 3 ...

1. **Closing Window & Logistical Void**: With less than 3 days until the March 31 deadline, there ar...

This is a fairly exotic topic. It stems from Trump's highly controversial and surprising suggestion during his first term to purchase Greenland. While presidential travel is a standard topic, predicting a visit specifically tied to the 'buying Greenland' meme places this in the realm of political novelty and non-mainstream diplomatic agendas.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: Option_'No' is currently priced at 97.1c. Given that there is zero realistic chance of Venezuela bec...

Admitting a new US state requires a lengthy constitutional and congressional process, typically taki...

There is a moderate interpretation risk. The primary rule demands 'formal annexation and becoming the 51st state' (constitutionally difficult), but the supplementary clause accepts an 'announced official agreement.' This creates a conflict between 'actual completion' and 'announced intent.' Controversy may arise if a political declaration is made without legal standing.

Extremely exotic. This market combines an aggressive geopolitical fantasy (US annexing Venezuela) with a highly improbable constitutional process (admitting Venezuela as the 51st state before Puerto Rico). It falls into the category of highly speculative 'Meme' or conspiracy-theory markets.

If this extreme event occurs, it would reshape the global energy landscape. US direct control over the world's largest proven oil reserves would cause violent volatility in Crude Oil prices (potential crash due to supply control or spike due to conflict). Major oil equities like Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) with interests in the region would experience a structural shock.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 1 No for September 30, 2026 (37c) and 1 Yes for December 31, 2026 (60.5c). Plan Description: Since a launch by September guarantees a launch by December, buying September's No (37c) and Decembe...

The market still exhibits some logical inversion. Currently, the September option (63c) is priced hi...

There is a high risk of conflict between the rules and reality. 1. **Name Confusion**: The Oro protocol (and its partner Fasset) has essentially already launched tokens named 'ORO' or '$GOLD', but these are **commodity tokens** backed by physical gold, not the **governance token** required by the rules. 2. **Title vs. Rule**: The title broadly asks if they will 'launch a token', while the rules strictly specify a 'governance token'. If a resolution source sees an 'ORO token' trading (which is the gold token), they might incorrectly resolve to 'Yes'. 3. **Complex Status**: As of Feb 2026, the Solana-based Oro project is running a points campaign (Nuggets) strongly implying a future airdrop/governance token, which hasn't happened yet. The resolver must distinguish between the 'existing gold token' and the 'future governance token'.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy the 'Yes' shares of all 16 listed teams. The total cost is 97.6c, and as long as the NFC Championship concludes normally, the payout is 100c. Plan Description: The sum of the 'Yes' prices for all teams currently stands at 97.6c, which is strictly less than 100...

In the current prediction market, the pricing for the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks (both at...

The market is heavily divergent from mainstream consensus. It currently lists the Rams and Seahawks as the co-favorites to win the NFC (16.5% implied probability each), which contradicts almost all major sportsbooks and expert analyses that universally favor the 49ers, Lions, and Eagles. This discrepancy is highly likely due to irrational whales taking large positions during low-liquidity periods, locking the prices at unrepresentative levels.