As of March 11, 2026, David Raya's price has stabilized around 88c, reflecting his commanding lead i...

Mar 5, 2026 - Mar 8, 2026, Gianluigi Donnarumma's price plummeted from ~23.5c to 11.5c. This was driven by decisive results during the weekend fixtures (likely Donnarumma conceding or Raya keeping a clean sheet), making the gap nearly insurmountable this late in the season, causing market confidence to collapse. Feb 10, 2026 - Feb 11, 2026, David Raya's price moved from 84.5c to 90c, driven by further market solidification of his lead.

According to the official Epoch AI leaderboard updated on March 15, 2026, the top-ranked model 'GPT-...

Critical Risk. There is a fatal date discrepancy: the Title states 'by June 30', but the Rules text explicitly specifies 'by February 28, 2026'. In prediction markets, the specific text in the Rules usually overrides the Title. This implies the effective deadline is in just 18 days, not 4 months. Furthermore, the reliance on Epoch AI as the resolution source poses a lag risk; if Epoch does not update the leaderboard immediately for the recently released GPT-5.3-Codex (Feb 5), the market could resolve 'No' despite model capabilities.

Moderately Exotic. FrontierMath is a highly specialized, 'research-level' mathematics benchmark containing unpublished problems. While OpenAI models are mainstream, betting on specific percentage thresholds for this niche, high-difficulty benchmark is a topic for deep-tech industry watchers, not the general public.

If OpenAI scores break 50% or 70% (current GPT-5.2 is ~40.3%), it validates that Scaling Laws are still effective for extreme reasoning tasks, bullish for MSFT (OpenAI backer) and NVDA (compute demand). Conversely, stalling at ~40% implies a reasoning ceiling. Since the baseline is already 40.3%, a jump to 45%+ is a credible signal for continued AI progress, carrying medium-impact price implications for AI-linked equities.

2026-03-14 - 2026-03-15, the price of the 60%+ option surged from 43.5c to 56c. The reason was likely market overreaction to the release of new OpenAI models (e.g., GPT-5.4), mistakenly assuming the release implied benchmark success, despite the simultaneous data showing a score of 47.6% (a failure). 2026-03-01 - 2026-03-02, the 50%+ option saw volatility driven by post-deadline speculation.

Significant divergence exists. The hard data from EpochAI (March 15 showing a top score of 47.6%) clearly points to a 'No' resolution, yet the prediction market price (54.5c) implies 'Yes' is the likely outcome. This disconnect suggests market participants are either ignoring official data or betting on a 'ghost' model that is unpublished and superior to the latest flagship GPT-5.4.

Rhode Island's 1st District (RI-01) is a solid Democratic stronghold with a Cook PVI of D+12. Incumb...

As of March 22, 2026, with less than 10 days remaining until April 1, the probability is extremely l...

The current market prices sum to approximately 108.45%, indicating a significant premium. The race f...

CA-51 remains a Democratic stronghold in San Diego (Cook PVI D+12). Incumbent Sara Jacobs is well-en...

Despite incumbent Burgess Owens announcing his retirement this week (March 2026), UT-04 remains a so...

There is a divergence between market pricing (90%) and fundamental probability (>98%). Mainstream models rate UT-04 as 'Solid Republican,' especially with strong candidate Mike Kennedy running. The 10% market discount reflects the opportunity cost of capital (238 days to expiry) and liquidity premiums rather than genuine electoral risk.

Although Helena Foulkes' market price has recently retraced from a high of 82.5c to 71.5c, her funda...

The market pricing is extremely irrational (sum of probabilities >500%). As of March 12, 2026, Igor ...

There is a notable tie-breaker clause: if goal counts are tied and no single official leader is declared, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of the last name. This differs from standard sports betting rules (often dead-heat or assists tie-breakers), introducing a non-sporting risk based on nomenclature.

Extreme divergence. Real-world data confirms Igor Jesus (7 goals, active) is the strong favorite, Stanić (7 goals, eliminated) is a passive candidate holding a precarious lead, and Varga (4 goals, transferred) is out. Yet, the prediction market prices all of them (and several trailers) at ~40c (~40% probability), which is mathematically absurd (sum > 100%). The market is completely ignoring fundamental data regarding player transfers and team eliminations.

MI-05 (covering Michigan's southern border) is one of the state's most solid Republican strongholds,...

Despite the current market price of 89 cents, the fundamentals strongly favor a Democratic hold due ...

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political forecasters (e.g., Cook Political Report) rate this seat as 'Solid Democrat,' typically implying a 95%-99% win probability. However, the prediction market is currently pricing it at only 89%, implying an ~11% chance of an upset, which is considered an irrational over-hedge in the current political environment.

Compared to the irrational 183% premium mentioned in the previous analysis, the market has undergone...

Based on the latest forecasts from Wunderground (the resolution source) and AccuWeather, the high te...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the specific maximum temperature of a specific city on a specific day falls into a relatively niche category—less mainstream than politics or sports, but not extremely exotic or absurd.

Significant divergence exists. First, the aggregate market probability (161%) is mathematically impossible. Second, the market heavily favors a heat outlier (15°C+ at 25.5%), whereas mainstream meteorological forecasts anchor solidly around 12°C-13°C. The market appears to be betting on a warm spike not reflected in current data, or is simply mispriced due to inefficiency.

Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District (MA-02) is a solid Democratic stronghold (Cook PVI D+13). ...

Market sentiment has shifted drastically towards the lower valuation brackets. Despite Strava's repo...

2026-03-05 - 2026-03-07, The '<2B' option surged from a low of ~10.5c to a high of 27c, before settling at 22.5c. Reason: Waning confidence in the tech IPO environment led traders to hedge against Strava maintaining its 2025 private valuation of $2.2B, shifting capital aggressively from the $3B-$4B range to the downside. 2026-03-05 - 2026-03-08, The '3B–4B' option crashed from 20.5c to 11.5c. Reason: The aforementioned risk-off sentiment caused investors to capitulate on bets for a premium valuation listing. 2026-02-09 - 2026-02-11, No single option exhibited price fluctuations exceeding 10 cents. Market pricing remains firmly anchored to the $2.2B private valuation established in May 2025.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market is currently extremely bearish, assigning a ~65% probability (sum of '<2B' and '2B-3B') that Strava's valuation will fall below $3B. This implies a Price-to-Sales (P/S) multiple of less than 4.4x. For a consumer tech company with reported 50% growth and monopolistic network effects, this multiple is well below industry standards. While mainstream investment banking views typically anticipate a premium for such assets at IPO (e.g., >6x P/S, or >$3B), the prediction market is heavily pricing in a 'down round' scenario.