Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on the 'March 31' option Plan Description: Currently, the 'No' price for 'March 31' is 99.3c. With only 3 days left until March 31 and no indic...

For 'March 31', with only 3 days remaining and no signs of major unrest, the option is effectively z...

This is a prediction market targeting an extreme political tail risk. While not as standard as 'election winner,' discussions regarding the use of the military in domestic affairs have persisted in the context of a Trump presidency, making this topic a serious political scenario rather than a complete absurdity.

Invoking the Insurrection Act implies a significant breakdown of domestic order or a constitutional crisis in the US, representing a classic 'black swan' event. Equities (S&P 500) would face severe risk-off selling, while Bitcoin (BTC) and Gold could benefit as 'chaos hedge' assets. The impact of such political turmoil is strong enough to alter short-term macro asset trends.

Market pricing (implying a 32.5% probability of invocation by the end of 2026) diverges significantly from mainstream expert consensus. Mainstream legal and political analysts generally consider the formal invocation of the Insurrection Act of 1807 to be an extreme, highly politically costly measure that is exceptionally rare in modern history, even amidst large-scale protests. The high probability in the prediction market largely stems from retail traders' 'doom hedging' tendencies, conflating aggressive political rhetoric with actual statutory military deployment, leading the market to significantly overestimate the real likelihood of this extreme tail risk.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares for Bruno Mars Plan Description: Bruno Mars' Yes price is currently 99.3c. Since the outcome is virtually locked, buying Yes and wait...

As of March 27, 2026, with less than 4 days until the March 31 settlement, Bruno Mars' Yes price has...

There is a significant contradiction in the rules. The rule first states the resolution source is the 'monthly listener count listed on each artist's public Spotify profile,' a metric that typically includes listeners gained from 'Featured Artist' credits. However, a subsequent clause claims 'features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count.' This is technically impossible to enforce using public data, as the profile number cannot be disaggregated. Typically, such markets resolve based on the displayed profile number, ignoring the exclusion clause, but this ambiguity creates a risk of dispute.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on 'December 31' Plan Description: The 'No' option for 'December 31' is currently priced around 63.5c. Given that the real-world probab...

For 'March 31': With only about 3 days until expiration, there are no ongoing geopolitical crises or...

This is a highly unconventional geopolitical tail-risk market. While US-Cuba relations are tense, predicting a direct 'US airstrike on Cuban soil' is a low-probability black swan event, far outside the realm of standard election or economic forecasting.

Cuba's proximity to the US means any military strike would trigger significant regional panic. The most direct victims would be cruise lines dependent on Caribbean routes (e.g., Carnival Corp CCL), which could suffer a structural price crash. Additionally, geopolitical tension would boost safe-haven assets (Gold) and Crude Oil (Gulf of Mexico risk premium), while negatively impacting broad market indices.

The market pricing (a 36.5% chance of a strike by year-end) diverges massively from the consensus of mainstream geopolitical experts. No serious military or diplomatic analysis assigns a greater than 1-in-3 probability to the US bombing Cuba this year. This steep premium is likely driven by retail prediction market participants misinterpreting political rhetoric (confusing actions like sanctions, blockades, or cyberattacks—which do not meet the resolution criteria—with kinetic military strikes) or pure speculative momentum.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: Option_'No' is currently priced at roughly 99.4c, offering a 0.6c profit in less than 3 days. Given ...

As of March 28, 2026, with less than 3 days until market expiration, Netanyahu remains tied up with ...

This is a moderately exotic market. While Netanyahu is a high-profile leader whose travels are news, predicting a specific visit to a specific city (NYC) within a short timeframe is speculative and not a guaranteed scheduled event like an election. It falls into the category of geopolitical gossip/logistics forecasting.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: Buying 'No' at 84c yields a 16c profit upon expiration in 96 days (approx. 19% return on capital). G...

With less than 100 days until the expiration date (June 30, 2026), the probability of a formal indep...

This is a geopolitical niche topic. While Kurdish separatism in Iran is a long-standing issue, a formal declaration of independence is not a frequent topic in the mainstream news cycle. It is relatively obscure for the general public but not absurd for observers of Middle Eastern affairs.

If the Kurdish region in Iran formally declares independence, it would almost certainly trigger a harsh military response from the Iranian government, potentially leading to civil war or escalated regional conflict. Given Iran's role as a major oil producer, such geopolitical instability would directly threaten oil supply security, causing a spike in Crude Oil prices. Safe-haven assets like Gold would also likely rise due to heightened Middle East tensions.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and the consensus of mainstream geopolitical experts. The prediction market assigns a 16% probability to a Kurdish declaration of independence within three months, whereas mainstream Middle East analysts and think tanks widely consider the actual probability to be well under 1%. Experts note that these Kurdish groups seek autonomy, not secession, and Iran's tight security apparatus precludes imminent territorial fragmentation. The 16% price reflects excessive speculation by crypto market participants on geopolitical shocks rather than a rational probability assessment.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' at 99.25c. Plan Description: The current price for Option_'No' is 99.25c. Given the procedural impossibility of passing a repeal ...

The probability of repeal is near 0. With less than 4 days remaining until March 31, and lacking bip...

This is a relatively niche tax policy issue focusing specifically on gambling loss deductions. While not as universally recognized as a presidential election, it is a highly specific concern for the gambling industry, tax professionals, and professional gamblers, making it a moderately esoteric policy prediction.

Repealing the cap on gambling loss deductions is a direct tailwind for the gaming industry, particularly for sports betting and casino operators reliant on high-volume, high-stakes players (e.g., DraftKings, Penn Entertainment). If the cap is repealed, the reduced tax burden on high-net-worth gamblers could increase betting handle. This holds medium impact potential (Score 3) for stocks like DKNG and PENN, with a slightly more moderate effect on traditional casinos like MGM and LVS.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' for March 31, 2026 Plan Description: This is a Low Risk Yield opportunity. The 'No' price is ~99.05c, and 'Yes' is 0.95c. With only 7 day...

Current date is March 24, 2026. For the March 31 option, with only 7 days remaining, the probability...

The rules contain ambiguity. While the primary source is official US government statements, the secondary criterion of 'consensus of credible reporting' is highly subjective. Defining 'credible' and 'consensus' without official confirmation is prone to dispute. Additionally, the question text states a deadline of Dec 31, 2025, but the options list dates in 2026, creating a significant discrepancy between the rule text and the market structure.

This is a classic conspiracy theory topic. While the Epstein case is widely known, the official narrative is firmly established as suicide. Betting on the government reversing this conclusion is highly speculative and unconventional, making it a fairly exotic market despite high public interest.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket pricing (~13%) implies a substantial probability of the government confirming foul play. However, mainstream media (e.g., Laredo Morning Times, CBS) and official sources state that the DOJ and FBI explicitly closed the case in July 2025 with a 'no foul play' conclusion. While recent reports mention 'shredded documents' and 'doubts,' they frame these within the context of the official suicide ruling, citing them as 'mysteries' or 'negligence' rather than predicting an official reversal. The market pricing reflects the resilience of conspiracy theories rather than objective official indicators.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy NO shares of Victoria Mboko (cost around 84.5c). Plan Description: As a young player, Victoria Mboko's 15.5% implied probability to win Wimbledon is completely detache...

Aryna Sabalenka (24.5c) remains the top grass-court favorite, matching her capabilities. Iga Świątek...

March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, Victoria Mboko's price surged from 5.4c to 15.5c, caused by another abnormal fluctuation due to low market liquidity (highly likely a fat finger or manipulation); her actual title odds remain unchanged. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, Victoria Mboko's price crashed from 16.25c back to 5c, correcting the previous irrational price spike caused by low liquidity (fat finger or manipulation), as the market price returned to reality. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, Victoria Mboko's price abnormally spiked from 2.45c to 16.25c, becoming the second favorite overnight. This move lacks any supporting sporting news or match results and is likely a result of low liquidity being impacted by a single large buy order (or manipulation), representing an irrational price anomaly. March 20, 2026 - March 23, 2026, Aryna Sabalenka's price climbed steadily from 22c to 29c, while Iga Świątek's price receded from 26.25c to 19.3c, as market panic fully subsided. Capital rotated from the safe-haven asset (Iga) back to the grass-court favorite (Sabalenka), correcting the previous overreaction. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Iga Świątek's price surged from 6.6c to 26.9c, and Aryna Sabalenka's price crashed from 36c to 13c, driven by sudden market panic (likely regarding negative rumors about Sabalenka) triggering a sell-off and a stampede into the World No. 1.

Victoria Mboko's market price (15.5c) sharply diverges from mainstream tennis consensus. Mainstream predictions generally view Sabalenka, Rybakina, and Świątek as core Wimbledon contenders. Mboko is nowhere near a 15% title probability level, highlighting a classic prediction market liquidity anomaly.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes shares of Freedom Movement (GS) at around 98.3c and hold to settlement for 100c. Plan Description: Since the election results are definitively known, buying the winner's Yes shares is essentially ear...

As of March 28, 2026, the Slovenian parliamentary election held on March 22 has concluded. Prelimina...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No for all options Plan Description: The sum of No prices for all options is 0.9965 + 0.95 + 0.85 + 0.73 = 3.5265. Since at most one opti...

The current date is March 25, 2026. For the March 31 option, with only 6 days left, a token launch i...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on Freiburg (Current price ~0.906) Plan Description: There is a significant 'Longshot Bias' in the market. The sum of all 'Yes' prices is ~432c, implying...

The market's aggregate 'Yes' probability sits at 432%, significantly exceeding the mathematical limi...

This event has no correlation with macro assets like the S&P 500 or Bitcoin. The only directly correlated asset is the publicly traded club Borussia Dortmund (Ticker: BVB). A Top 4 finish guarantees Champions League qualification, worth tens of millions in revenue. If Dortmund is on the bubble near the season's end, the outcome will significantly drive the stock price (the 'Champions League premium').

March 20, 2026 - March 23, 2026, RB Leipzig's price surged from 49.5c to 62.5c, while Hoffenheim dropped ~10c (58c to 48.5c). Reason: Matchday 27 results reshuffled the standings; Leipzig likely secured a win while rivals stumbled, vaulting them out of the deadlock and into a strong position for the top 4. March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Hoffenheim's price crashed from 67.5c to 49c, while Stuttgart rose 10c (46.5c to 56.5c). Reason: A crucial victory for Stuttgart compressed the table, erasing Hoffenheim's previous safety buffer.

The primary divergence is between mathematical logic and market sentiment. Market pricing implies 4.3 teams will qualify, an overflow of 32%. This divergence is concentrated in the pricing of mid-table teams (e.g., Freiburg, Union Berlin), where the market assigns probabilities (5%-10%) far higher than mainstream data models (typically <1%).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' - Any U.S. House member (Current Price 0.87) Plan Description: This is a classic Soft Arbitrage opportunity. The market pricing implies a 13% probability that a U....

As of March 24, 2026, with only 98 days remaining until the June 30 deadline, Time Decay is the prim...

This question carries a degree of novelty but is not unimaginable within a geopolitical context. Given the typically hostile US-Iran relations, a visit by figures like Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister of Israel) or Donald Trump (Former/Current President) would be extremely rare and politically explosive. It is not a standard question like 'who wins the election,' but neither is it an absurd 'Jesus resurrection' scenario; it represents a high-stakes geopolitical black swan prediction.

If figures like Netanyahu or Trump were to visit Iran, it would likely signal either a massive geopolitical breakthrough (peace deal) or an extreme precursor to conflict (e.g., prisoner swap or ultimatum). Such an event would have a major impact on Crude Oil, as Iran is a key producer, and any détente or escalation directly hits oil prices. Gold would also react as a safe haven. If it is merely a generic US Congress member, the impact is lower. Given Netanyahu is an option, any visit involving him would trigger a drastic repricing of Middle East war risk.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market (Polymarket) is currently pricing a 13% probability of a U.S. House member entering Iran, which conflicts with mainstream geopolitical analysis. The consensus view is that, barring a sudden regime collapse or a major peace treaty (both estimated at <1-5% probability within 98 days), it is virtually impossible for U.S. officials to set foot on Iranian soil. The market price likely reflects excessive 'Action Bias' or a speculative premium that mistakes border stunts for actual territorial entry.

Arbitrage Plan: Short (by buying 'No') fringe candidates who are highly unlikely to advance, such as Javen Allen, Betty Yee, Xavier Becerra, or the severely overvalued Elaine Culotti. Plan Description: Many candidates with virtually no chance of winning (e.g., Javen Allen's No is 87.55c, Xavier Becerr...

The market remains in an irrational bubble, with the sum of 'Yes' implied probabilities for all opti...

Market prices severely deviate from realistic fundamentals. The California gubernatorial primary is typically a contest among well-known politicians from the major parties, yet non-mainstream candidates like Elaine Culotti are priced at 47c, implying a near 50% chance of advancing. This contradicts all mainstream media and polling expectations. Furthermore, the sum of implied probabilities across all options exceeds 300%, indicating an extremely inefficient and speculative market.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on Getafe (Current Price 90.9c) Plan Description: Getafe trails the Top 4 by approximately 19 points with only ~9 games left. To qualify, they would n...

As of March 23, 2026, with only ~9 rounds remaining, the Top 4 race is effectively settled. Barcelon...

Significant divergence exists. Official standings show Getafe and Espanyol nearly 20 points adrift of the Top 4, implying a statistical probability of 0%. Yet, the market assigns them absurd probabilities of ~9% and ~8% respectively. Conversely, Villarreal, sitting 14 points clear of 5th place, is undervalued at 88% when their true probability should be near 99%.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No on Spencer Pratt at 89c, targeting a reversion to 99c. Plan Description: As a reality TV star and Republican, Spencer Pratt's actual probability of winning the mayoral elect...

The Los Angeles mayoral election is effectively a duopoly between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman. While...

The market's pricing of Spencer Pratt (11c) diverges significantly from mainstream political analysis. In highly polarized and heavily Democratic Los Angeles, no mainstream media or pollster gives Pratt any substantive chance of winning. Furthermore, the market prices the combined probability of Bass and Raman at under 85%, failing to reflect the political reality that these two are almost certain to make the runoff. This divergence stems from retail capital in crypto prediction markets overreacting to celebrity name recognition and ignoring political fundamentals.