Arbitrage Plan: Buy No shares for both 'April 30' and 'March 31' Plan Description: Given that a formal and explicit declaration of war by a US President (rather than just military str...

Based on current developments and historical context, the Trump administration is in a phase of de-e...

While the title asks about 'declaring war', the rules are extremely strict, requiring an explicit, formal declaration (e.g., 'We declare war'). Modern conflicts (airstrikes, assassinations, proxy wars) rarely involve formal declarations. The risk is high because Trump could initiate significant military action or a de facto war, yet the market would resolve 'No' absent the specific verbal formula. This creates a gap between the literal resolution criteria and the intuitive understanding of 'war'.

A formal US declaration of war on Iran would be a massive 'Black Swan' event. With the Strait of Hormuz at risk, Crude Oil prices would skyrocket instantaneously (Impact Score 5). Global risk-off sentiment would drive flows into Gold and the Dollar while crushing equities (S&P 500 Score 5). Defense stocks (e.g., LMT) would rally. The impact far exceeds standard geopolitical friction, representing a structural shock to global markets.

March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of 'April 30' plummeted from 49.5c to around 4c. The reason is that the market finally digested Trump's de-escalation signals regarding paused strikes and negotiations, rapidly wiping out the previously severely overpriced speculative premium. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 'April 30' spiked from 48.5c to a peak of 71.5c before dropping back to around 49.5c, indicating short-term market divergence and speculative trading regarding potential flare-ups over a longer timeframe, despite the overall de-escalation trend. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of 'March 31' gradually declined from 3.7c to around 1c, driven by the approaching expiration date and Trump's ceasefire negotiation signals further depressing short-term war declaration expectations. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of 'March 31' dropped from ~7.5c to 2.55c. The driver was Trump's statement regarding 'objectives being met' and considering 'winding down' military operations, which crushed expectations of an escalation to formal war.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy the 'No' option at the current price (around 88c) and hold until resolution. Plan Description: The time window for this event's resolution closed at the end of 2025, making the outcome determinis...

The resolution window for this market (August 14, 2025, to December 31, 2025) has completely elapsed...

There is a significant conflict regarding timeframes. The title implies a deadline ('by...?') and the option is 'June 30', yet the rules explicitly define the valid window as 'August 14, 2025 to December 31, 2025'. This inconsistency is highly misleading; users might assume the bet is about an event before June 30, while the market strictly resolves based on the late-2025 window. The 'June 30' option label is confusing and likely a remnant of a series, mismatching the specific rule logic.

If a US-Russia nuclear deal is reached, it would signify a major de-escalation of global geopolitical risk, likely causing a sharp drop in safe-haven assets (Gold) and a decline in defense stocks (e.g., Lockheed Martin - LMT) due to expectations of a cooling arms race. Crude Oil might fluctuate on speculation of potential sanctions relief (even if the deal is strictly nuclear, it implies thawing relations). Such an unexpected geopolitical breakthrough carries a medium-to-high market impact.

The market still assigns a 12c premium to the 'Yes' option, whereas in reality, the time window for the event has already closed, making the probability an absolute 0. This pricing severely diverges from objective facts, typically caused by dried-up liquidity and trapped capital failing to force the price to zero.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' on Fernando Mendoza Plan Description: This is a classic 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. While not strictly risk-free arbitrage, there is a s...

As of March 22, 2026, Fernando Mendoza is effectively a lock for the first overall pick. The Las Veg...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' at 99.7c. Plan Description: The current price of 'No' is 99.7c. Given the practically zero probability of a peace agreement bein...

As of March 28, 2026, less than 3 days remain until the March 31 deadline. There are currently no re...

The rules contain nuances: only Ukraine's signature is required, not Russia's, deviating from the standard 'mutual signing' expectation. Additionally, while local ceasefires are excluded, softer instruments like a 'roadmap' or 'exchange of letters' qualify if they commit to a process for ending the war, creating complexity in boundary judgment.

A peace deal would significantly reduce geopolitical risk premiums, leading to a sharp decline in Crude Oil and Gold prices. Simultaneously, global risk appetite would rebound, boosting equities (S&P 500), while defense stocks (e.g., Lockheed Martin LMT) could suffer significant drops due to anticipated reductions in orders. This is an event with high macro impact.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No Plan Description: The event's trigger deadline (Dec 31, 2025) has already passed, meaning 'Yes' is physically and logi...

The current date is March 28, 2026, but the market rules explicitly require the files to be made pub...

Extremely high resolution risk. First, the 'Definition Trap': The rules enforce a rigorous standard for a 'client list,' explicitly requiring a connection to 'illegal activities' and disqualifying flight logs or contact books. Public perception often equates mere association (flight logs) with guilt, creating a gap where a major document dump could still resolve 'No'. Second, the 'Timeline Conflict': The text cites a Dec 31, 2025 deadline, yet the current date is Feb 2026 and the market is active with a June 30 option, suggesting a massive discrepancy or zombie status.

Moderately exotic. While the Epstein scandal is a mainstream news topic, betting on the specific release of sealed legal documents and the semantic nature of their contents (criminal list vs. visitor log) places this in the realm of political gossip/legal speculation rather than standard events.

There is a significant divergence between the current market price (Yes at 11 cents) and objective reality. Because the deadline specified in the resolution criteria (December 31, 2025) has thoroughly passed, the objective probability is 0%, yet the market still assigns it an 11% probability. This is typically due to poor liquidity and the long wait until settlement, which deters capital from executing the arbitrage.

Arbitrage Plan: Simultaneously buy Yes shares for Tisza, Fidesz–KDNP, and Other Plan Description: The sum of the Yes prices for all three options is 71c + 27c + 0.05c = 98.05c, which is less than 10...

As the April 12 election approaches (about 15 days left), Tisza's lead has stabilized in the market ...

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares for the 'December 31, 2026' option at 75.5c. Plan Description: Because the event's resolution condition requires an announcement during a specific window in 2025, ...

Per the market rules, a 'Yes' resolution strictly requires a pregnancy announcement between July 30,...

There is a significant temporal mismatch between the title and the rules. The title broadly asks 'Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025?', but the rules strictly limit the resolution window to announcements made between July 30, 2025, and December 31, 2025. If she announces pregnancy in the first half of 2025, the market resolves to 'No' despite the title implying 'Yes', creating a major phrasing trap.

The market price implies a 24.5% probability that Taylor Swift announced a pregnancy in 2025. However, since 2025 is already in the past and no such event occurred, the objective probability is strictly 0%. This divergence stems entirely from irrational capital behavior or participants ignoring the explicit time window in the rules, causing a severe conflict with objective reality.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No IPO by June 30, 2026' Plan Description: While no direct arbitrage exists (sum of prices is ~101.4), a high-probability 'soft arbitrage' is a...

As of March 23, 2026, only 98 days remain until the deadline. An IPO for Fannie Mae requires a lengt...

This is a relatively specialized financial topic. While Fannie Mae is a famous GSE, its potential re-privatization (re-IPO) is primarily discussed within policy circles and hedge funds, rather than the general public, making it a moderately niche market.

This market is highly correlated with the common and preferred stocks of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC). Any substantive news regarding an IPO would cause extreme volatility in these tickers. Additionally, as a core part of the US mortgage market, their privatization process could have a minor impact on US 10Y Yields due to risk premium shifts.

Market pricing implies an approximate 11-12% probability of a Fannie Mae IPO within the next 3 months. However, mainstream financial analysis and standard IPO logistics suggest the actual probability is near 0% without an S-1 filing. This divergence stems from speculative behavior (lottery effect) in prediction markets and excessive hedging against political surprises, rather than a realistic listing timeline.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No on $400M (47.5c) and Yes on $600M (19.5c) to construct a risk-free arbitrage portfolio with a total cost of 67c. Plan Description: Because of the price inversion between $400M and $600M, buying No on $400M and Yes on $600M guarante...

As the EdgeX (EDGE) TGE (March 31) approaches, market panic has intensified, worsening expectations ...

This is a prediction about the future valuation of a specific unlisted cryptocurrency project (EdgeX). While EdgeX has some recognition in the DeFi/derivatives space, it is a relatively niche topic compared to major assets like Bitcoin or Ethereum. It's standard discourse within crypto trading circles but exotic to the general public.

Mar 25, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, the $500M option plummeted from 54c to 35.5c (-18.5c), while the $700M option fell from 27.5c to 11.5c (-16c). The reason is that as the TGE date approaches, market panic has intensified, worsening expectations of post-launch sell pressure. Mar 23, 2026 - Mar 27, 2026, the $700M option price steadily bled from 48c to 23.5c (-24.5c), while the $1B option fell from 31.5c to 8.5c (-23c), and the $500M option fell from 68c to 52.5c (-15.5c). The reason is that as the TGE date (March 31) approaches, the market is reassessing the massive sell pressure risk from airdrop unlocks, shifting sentiment rapidly from 'launch confirmation' excitement to defensive selling against a 'sell the news' event. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the $700M option surged from 35.5c to 48c (+12.5c), and the $1B option rebounded from 18c to 31.5c (+13.5c). The reason was EdgeX officially confirming the March 31 TGE date, eliminating delay uncertainty, while early pre-market data provided a temporary psychological anchor for valuation.

Prediction markets assign a very high probability to a severe crash, while pre-market trading remains relatively optimistic. This divergence likely stems from prediction market traders leaning towards shorting or hedging tail risks, whereas pre-market traders might be more bullish on the project's fundamentals.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: This is a classic 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity. The market price (Yes 25c) is mispricing recent news...

The current price of 'Yes' (25c) is significantly higher than fair value (~12c). The market is likel...

The core risk lies in establishing causality. The rule requires charges to be 'attributed to' files released on or after Dec 19, 2025. If charging documents do not explicitly cite these specific files, or if charges are based on a mix of new and old evidence, resolution will be highly contentious. Additionally, defining whether information was 'publicly known before Dec 19, 2025' creates significant ambiguity given the extensive historical reporting on the Epstein case.

Significant divergence exists. The market pricing (25%) implies traders believe there is a one-in-four chance of charges, likely misled by the 'arrest of Prince Andrew in the UK,' a non-US jurisdiction event. However, the consensus among legal experts and lawmakers (like Schumer) is that without new legislation ('Virginia's Law') to abolish the Statute of Limitations, criminal prosecution based on old Epstein files is legally almost impossible.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' - Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath) Plan Description: This is an extremely obvious mispricing. The Ba'ath party is a fringe faction in Lebanon (typically ...

The signaled return of Saad Hariri and his 'Future Movement' (confirmed by news in Feb-Mar 2026) is ...

There is an extremely high resolution risk. The rules contain a fatal timing trap: if results are not known by Feb 28, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. However, the very first line states elections are 'expected to be held in May 2026'. This means unless the election is drastically rescheduled to February, the market is mathematically guaranteed to resolve to 'Other'. This is a massive trap for traders who overlook the specific date clause.

The main divergence lies in the pricing of the 'Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party'. Mainstream political analysis and historical data indicate this party is a negligible proxy force (~1 seat), yet the prediction market assigns it a 7% probability of winning—higher than Hezbollah, which holds a core base of ~13-15 seats. This contradicts the reality of the political landscape. Additionally, LF's 14% win probability appears slightly inflated given the dual pressures of Hariri's return and potential election postponement (both favoring 'Other').

Arbitrage Plan: Buy a basket of all listed 'Yes' options (Long the 6-15+ range) Plan Description: A massive pricing dislocation exists (Portfolio Arbitrage). The sum of all 'Yes' prices (6 through 1...

As of March 24, 2026, the confirmed count of countries struck is effectively 6-7 (Syria, Somalia, Ir...

This is a geopolitical prediction. While not extremely bizarre (as US overseas military action is common), predicting the specific 'number of countries' is a niche military observation, more complex than simply predicting 'war or no war,' placing it in the upper-middle range of novelty.

This event is directly correlated with global geopolitical risk. An unexpected surge in the number of countries struck (e.g., >10) implies escalating global conflict or expanded counter-terrorism operations, which would significantly boost Crude Oil prices (especially if Middle Eastern producers are involved) and Gold (safe-haven demand). Defense contractors (like Lockheed Martin LMT, Raytheon RTX) would benefit from anticipated ammunition depletion and budget increases. US Treasury yields might fluctuate due to risk-off sentiment.

March 21, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '7' crashed from 26.85c to 14.4c (a 12.45c drop), continuing its downward spiral. The market is capitulating on '7' as the floor rather than the ceiling, driven by the full scale of the 'Iran War' and confirmed strikes in Ecuador. March 14, 2026 - March 17, 2026, the price of '7' fell from 23.1c to 13.6c, confirming the crash trend, while '15+' jumped from 2.7c to 8.6c, reflecting tail risk repricing. March 11, 2026 - March 12, 2026, the price of '7' plummeted from 34.1c to 23.15c due to the confirmation of Ecuador operations, breaking the market's previous defense line.

The sum of market prices (76%) is far below 100%, indicating extreme illiquidity or panic. Furthermore, the market still prices '8' (15.7%) as the favorite, which drastically diverges from the intensity of the reported conflicts. The reality of the 'Iran War' necessitates strikes in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and likely Lebanon, putting the baseline effectively at 8 already. With 9 months left, consensus expectation should be 10+.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: This represents a classic low-risk yield opportunity (Soft Arb). Based on regulatory timelines, appr...

Based on Eli Lilly's official guidance from the Feb 2026 earnings call, the NDA submission for Retat...

This event is a core catalyst for Eli Lilly (LLY). Retatrutide is viewed as the superior next-gen successor to Zepbound. An approval within 2026 (implying successful trials and expedited review) would significantly boost LLY's valuation premium. Conversely, a CRL (rejection) or delay would force a correction in high-growth expectations, triggering a significant pullback. Competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO) would also experience volatility due to shifting competitive dynamics.

Market pricing implies a ~22.5% probability of approval, which diverges sharply from mainstream regulatory expectations. Industry consensus and company guidance point to an NDA submission in H2 2026, placing the earliest possible approval in mid-2027. This divergence stems primarily from retail investors misunderstanding the FDA approval process distinctions (submission vs. approval).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Above 3%' Yes (Current Price ~97.8c) Plan Description: This is a very low-risk yield opportunity. According to the Cleveland Fed's March 24th update, March...

The trajectory for 2026 inflation has fundamentally shifted due to the energy shock (oil +33%) trigg...

Inflation data directly dictates the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, making it highly correlated with US Treasury Yields (US 10Y Yield) and the Dollar Index (DXY). If inflation unexpectedly spikes above 8% or 10% in 2026, it would trigger aggressive rate hike expectations, causing yields to surge and equities (S&P 500) to sell off, while Gold would react as an inflation hedge. This is a high-correlation macro hedging instrument.

Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 23, 2026, the price of 'Above 3.5%' experienced significant volatility, plunging from 79.5c to 66.5c before rebounding sharply to 75c. The initial drop was likely a reaction to the moderate February CPI print (2.4%), which cooled sentiment temporarily. However, the subsequent reversal was driven by the escalation in the Middle East and the Cleveland Fed's hawkish nowcast for March (>3%), forcing the market to rapidly reprice the incoming energy inflation shock.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market prices 'Above 4%' at only 46%, whereas mainstream institutions (like PIIE) and real-time data (Cleveland Fed) indicate inflation is accelerating, with some viewing >4% as the baseline scenario. The market pricing appears anchored to the moderate data from February and prior, failing to fully price in the impact of the late-March energy crisis on the annual inflation peak.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 99.75c. Holding it to expiration in under 3 days yields a payout of 10...

As of March 28, 2026, with less than 3 days remaining until the March 31 expiration, the probability...

Zelenskyy's departure in early 2026 would mark a major turning point in the Russia-Ukraine war (implying regime change, negotiations, or collapse). Such a political shock would rapidly impact global commodities, specifically Crude Oil (supply uncertainty or risk premium shifts) and Gold (safe-haven demand). While the specific direction for US equities depends on the reason (peace bullish vs. collapse bearish), it is undeniably a tradable volatility event.