Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on 'March 31, 2026' Plan Description: With only 3 days to expiration for March 31, 2026, and extremely stringent conditions (requiring 3 d...

For **March 31, 2026**: With only 3 days left until expiration, the probability of three extreme ind...

There is a significant logical conflict in the rules. The clause 'within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe' literally implies the events must occur in the 90-day window leading up to the expiration date (Q4 2026). However, the 'resolve immediately' clause suggests an early settlement is possible, which contradicts the requirement for proximity to the specific end date. If a crash occurs in 2025, it is highly ambiguous whether it satisfies the 'within timeframe' condition.

This market directly correlates with the core risk of global tech stocks. If NVDA drops 50% and the AI industry enters a downturn, it would cause a structural shock to the Nasdaq 100. NVDA is the direct underlying asset, TSM and SMCI are key hardware suppliers, and MSFT faces significant exposure via OpenAI. This serves as an excellent tail-risk hedge against a tech sector collapse.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option 'No' Plan Description: The current price of Option 'No' is 84.5c. Given that the US acquiring sovereignty or absolute juris...

The fair value for Option 'Yes' should remain extremely low (around 3 cents). The current pricing of...

Although Trump previously floated the idea of buying Greenland, it remains a highly unconventional event in the broader geopolitical context. The purchase of territory is extremely rare in modern international relations, making this a highly 'exotic' or 'novelty' market.

If the US were to actually acquire Greenland, it would be a significant geopolitical shock. While long-term impact on global macro assets (like S&P 500) might be limited, it would trigger short-term risk-on/off moves in the Dollar (DXY) and Gold. The most direct impact would be on the Danish Krone (DKK), given the territorial change to the Kingdom of Denmark and potential massive fiscal inflows.

The market-implied probability of 15.5% diverges significantly from mainstream geopolitical consensus. Mainstream media and experts universally agree that the probability of the US acquiring sovereignty or a Guantanamo-style exclusive jurisdiction in Greenland in the short term (by 2026) is close to zero. This divergence stems primarily from retail overpricing of historical Trump rhetoric in the prediction market, failing to fully grasp the extremely strict resolution rules that explicitly exclude conventional military expansion and base agreements.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price of 'No' is 76.5c, while the actual probability of 'Yes' occurring is extremely low...

Fair value is maintained at 5c. Despite the current price of 23.5c, the market significantly overest...

This is a fairly exotic topic. While U.S.-Cuba tensions are historically common, a full-scale ground invasion in 2026 is highly unlikely and not a central theme in mainstream geopolitical discourse. It represents an extreme tail-risk event rather than a standard policy prediction.

If the U.S. actually launches an invasion of Cuba, it would be a major geopolitical shock. Although Cuba is not a major oil player, military conflict in the Caribbean would trigger global risk-off sentiment, significantly boosting Gold (safe haven) and Crude Oil (geopolitical premium) prices, while likely causing panic selling in US equities (S&P 500) due to uncertainty. The DXY would likely rise on safe-haven demand.

The prediction market currently assigns a 23.5% probability to a U.S. invasion of Cuba, which starkly diverges from the consensus of mainstream international relations experts and military analysts. The mainstream view holds that the U.S. has no actual military invasion plans, and such an action would face massive international condemnation and domestic political resistance, making the probability close to zero. The market pricing is likely distorted by speculative sentiment driven by extreme political rhetoric.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' (Short war risk) Plan Description: Buying 'No' at 94.2c offers a potential return of 5.8c (6.1% absolute yield) if held to maturity in ...

The current market price (~5.8c) implies a ~6% war risk, which remains overvalued relative to fundam...

While Greece and Turkey are NATO allies, they have long-standing disputes over territory and resources (e.g., Aegean Sea, Cyprus). However, a direct hot war is an extreme, low-probability tail risk. While geopolitical conflict markets are not uncommon, predicting open hostility between allies is less routine than sports or elections, making it a moderately exotic market.

A direct military engagement between Greece and Turkey (both NATO members) would be a significant geopolitical 'black swan' event, undermining NATO stability and security in the Eastern Mediterranean. Such a conflict would trigger intense risk-aversion, causing Gold and the Dollar Index (DXY) to spike. Crude Oil prices would likely rise due to supply transit concerns in the region. Global equities (like the S&P 500) would likely suffer a risk-off selloff due to the heightened uncertainty.

Significant sentiment divergence exists. **Media outlets** (e.g., EADaily, Middle East Forum) are saturated with alarmist headlines about 'NATO bursting,' 'serious conflict brewing,' and 'Iran war spillover in Cyprus,' implying imminent war. However, the **prediction market** remains relatively calm (~6% probability), reflecting capital betting that 'diplomatic guardrails' and 'economic interests' will override bellicose rhetoric. While media focuses on localized friction (Navtex, missile deployments), the market correctly identifies these largely as political posturing rather than preludes to full-scale war.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No on 'June 30, 2026' Plan Description: The current No price for 'June 30, 2026' is around 94.5c. Given that it is already late March, compl...

The 'June 30' option is operationally almost impossible and valued near 0c (2c for extreme tail risk...

As OpenAI's largest investor and partner, Microsoft (MSFT) would see its stock significantly impacted by OpenAI's IPO valuation and independence (positively or negatively depending on the structure). An OpenAI IPO would also create spillover effects for the entire AI sector (e.g., NVDA) and competitors (e.g., GOOGL), acting as a bellwether for Nasdaq sentiment.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares on all major options, especially those with anomalously inflated prices (e.g., Kyle Schwarber). The sum of all 'Yes' prices currently exceeds 100c (approx. 114c), indicating that a proportional purchase of 'No' on all players can lock in a risk-free profit. Plan Description: The sum of the 'Yes' prices for all candidates currently sits around 114.3c. Since there can only be...

The race for the 2026 NL Hank Aaron Award remains highly competitive. Despite potentially splitting ...

2026-03-26 to 2026-03-27, Kyle Schwarber's price surged from 12.5c to 24c, likely driven by large short-term buy orders rather than actual fundamental changes. 2026-03-14 to 2026-03-15, prices for Francisco Lindor (9c -> 32.15c), Ketel Marte (15.6c -> 32c), Bryce Harper (8.5c -> 19.3c), and Kyle Schwarber (8.5c -> 16c) surged collectively. This was not driven by fundamentals (Lindor actually has injury news) but likely by a liquidity crisis clearing the order book or an algorithmic malfunction. 2026-03-11 to 2026-03-12, Shohei Ohtani's price fluctuated violently between 32c and 43.5c, indicating extreme market instability.

The current market prices Kyle Schwarber's win probability at 24%, which is far above expectations from mainstream baseball analytics. While he is an elite power hitter, his typically low batting average puts him at a disadvantage for the Hank Aaron Award, which rewards the best overall offensive performer. In contrast, Ohtani and Soto are widely considered the overwhelming favorites by mainstream media.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 94.5c. Given the extreme logistical hurdles of opening a permanent cit...

With only about 93 days remaining until the June 30, 2026 deadline, opening a permanent, city-owned ...

There is a significant timeline trap. While the title mentions 'June 30', the rules specify the year 2026. This means even if the candidate wins in Nov 2025 and takes office in Jan 2026, there is a mere 6-month window to pass legislation, secure a site, build, and 'actively open' a store. Given NYC bureaucratic inefficiency, this condition is extremely difficult to meet, creating a massive risk for 'Yes' bettors.

This is a highly specific and unorthodox policy market (socialist city-owned grocery stores), far removed from mainstream election outcome predictions. It relies on the minutiae of a specific candidate's campaign promise, making it a niche and novel political derivative.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price of 'No' is approximately 95 cents. Since the probability of the GOP-led House impe...

As of March 28, 2026, with only 93 days remaining until the June 30 deadline, the likelihood of impe...

If Trump were to be impeached again, it would trigger significant political uncertainty. DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group), acting as a direct proxy for his political fate, would face extreme volatility risk (likely a crash). The broader market (S&P 500) would react negatively to political turmoil, especially if impeachment proceedings disrupt key economic policies. DXY and Bitcoin might see volatility as hedges, but the correlation is secondary.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: Currently, the price of 'No' is 94.5c, meaning buying 'No' costs 94.5c. Since a blockade within thre...

With around three months remaining until June 30, 2026, implementing a full physical blockade meetin...

This event would be a 'Black Swan' for the global economy. Given TSMC's (TSM) pivotal role in the semiconductor supply chain, a blockade would cause a crash in TSM and dependent tech giants (e.g., NVDA, AAPL), triggering a structural collapse in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Gold and Crude Oil would see violent volatility as war-panic assets.

The current market implied probability of 5.5% is significantly higher than mainstream expert expectations. Mainstream geopolitical analysis and intelligence agencies (such as ODNI) generally believe the probability of a full blockade in the short term (next few months) is extremely low, near zero. The market price carries a premium reflecting traders' demand for hedging extreme tail risks, rather than a true probability estimate.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares for all cities, especially those far from the frontlines or with no significant recent frontline changes (e.g., Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy, Zaporizhia). Plan Description: For cities far from the frontlines where Russian forces are unable to launch large-scale offensives ...

With only about 93 days remaining until the June 30 resolution date, Theta decay is having a signifi...

If Russia enters major strategic hubs like Kharkiv or Zaporizhia, it would be viewed as a significant escalation of the war, likely triggering energy supply fears (boosting Crude Oil) and global risk-off sentiment (benefiting Gold, weighing on equities). Market reaction would be milder for smaller settlements.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares for all 6 maps (All-No Portfolio) Plan Description: The sum of 'No' prices for all maps is 476c. Since Valve almost never removes more than one map in a...

Historically, Valve rotates the competitive map pool (typically one map at a time) after Major tourn...

This is a niche prediction focused on the update strategy of a specific esport (CS2). While a regular topic for CS players and esports enthusiasts, it is exotic to the general public, relying on specific knowledge of Valve's update cadence and map pool rotation history.

March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, Overpass surged from 10.5c to 32.5c, likely due to a sudden influx of speculative capital or new community rumors regarding its removal. March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Overpass surged from 12c to 25c, before retracing to 20.5c by the 19th. This spike was likely driven by unfounded rumors or speculation, lacking official substance. March 11, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Nuke anomalously spiked from 20.5c to 41c, then slowly corrected to 28.5c over the following days, indicating a market correction of previous mispricing. March 5, 2026 - March 10, 2026, both Inferno and Overpass experienced massive crashes from highs of 40-50c, suggesting early market hype is fading.

The current sum of Yes prices sits at ~124%, implying the market expects a guaranteed removal, possibly of multiple maps. However, mainstream CS expert consensus and historical data indicate that following the recent January map pool adjustment, a secondary update before June is highly improbable. This highlights a divergence where prediction market participants are heavily driven by short-term social media rumors rather than fundamental historical patterns.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No on 'March 31' Plan Description: Buy the No option for 'March 31' at 99.85c. The probability of Powell stepping down in the next 3 da...

Today is March 28, 2026. Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair officially ends on May 15, 2026. For the ...

Powell's unexpected departure (whether resignation or removal) would be a massive 'Black Swan' event, triggering extreme panic regarding monetary policy continuity. US Treasury yields would experience violent volatility (direction depending on successor expectations), equities could crash due to uncertainty, and Gold would spike as a safe haven. The impact is sufficient to alter medium-term macro trends.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy No for Reza Pahlavi (cost approx 86.5c). Plan Description: Reza Pahlavi's Yes price is at an irrational 13.5c. As an exiled figure, his chances of exercising d...

Mojtaba Khamenei remains the strongest candidate for succession, though his implied probability has ...

Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for crude oil transport. If the succession process is smooth, market reaction may be muted; however, if it leads to civil war, a coup, or a power vacuum (resolving to a non-establishment figure or 'No Head of State'), it would trigger significant oil supply fears and spike prices. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty would boost Gold as a safe-haven asset.

The market's 13.5% implied probability for Reza Pahlavi severely diverges from mainstream geopolitical consensus, which views a monarchist restoration by an exiled figure as highly implausible, expecting power transition to remain within the existing regime apparatus (e.g., Mojtaba or the IRGC). Furthermore, IRGC-aligned figures like Ghalibaf are underpriced, failing to reflect mainstream expectations of military dominance in any crisis scenario.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price for Option_'No' is 95.8c. Within the short 3-month window, the likelihood of Putin...

As of March 28, 2026, the rumored 'March 26 coup' date has passed with no substantial events, and ma...

If Putin were to suddenly leave power, it would be a massive geopolitical shock. As Russia is a major energy exporter, leadership change would likely cause extreme volatility in Crude Oil markets (potential spike or crash depending on the successor's stance). Gold would rally as a safe-haven asset due to uncertainty. Global equities might experience panic selling due to the unpredictability of instability in a nuclear power.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on all options Plan Description: The sum of all 'Yes' prices is currently 90.1 + 7.0 + 1.2 + 0.2 = 98.5 cents. Buying the full set co...

Based on the latest market snapshots (March 21 to March 24), the market experienced an extreme emoti...

March 21, 2026 - March 24, 2026: Colorado Avalanche surged from 64.8c back to 90.1c (+25.3c), while Dallas Stars crashed from 30.7c to 7.0c (-23.7c). Reason: The market panic seen on March 21 proved temporary. Colorado likely secured a decisive victory in the following days, or Dallas lost a key game, effectively extinguishing hopes of a comeback. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026: Dallas Stars spiked from 14.6c to 30.7c, while Colorado Avalanche dropped sharply from 83.35c to 64.8c. Reason: Late-season pressure; Dallas likely won a pivotal game while Colorado stumbled, briefly narrowing the point gap and triggering speculative bets on a 'turnaround'. March 14, 2026 - March 16, 2026: Dallas Stars rose from 4.6c to 16.95c, while Colorado Avalanche dropped from 92.55c. Reason: Dallas secured back-to-back wins while Colorado suffered an unexpected loss, causing the market to re-evaluate the race.