Elections Prediction Markets – AI Odds & Fair Value Analysis | PolyPredict AI

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Politics|$288.5k Vol|

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?

Gretchen Whitmer

Arbitrage: 36¢

Annualized yield: 45%

World|$279.3k Vol|

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson

Simona Mohamsson

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth for Magdalena Andersson and Ulf Kristersson. Combine this with the latest Swedish polling data to assess if current odds accurately reflect the true win rates of the Red-Green bloc vs. the Tidö agreement bloc.

Politics|$268.7k Vol|

Who will win the Nice mayoral election?

Christian Estrosi

Politics|$268.0k Vol|

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Shutdown & Republican Party

Shutdown & Democratic Party

Annualized yield: 2.1%

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

[Category 1: Key Timeline Check] Search for the current expiration schedule of US congressional Continuing Resolutions (CRs) to see if there is a critical budget cliff aligning with the January 31, 2026 deadline. Verify the congressional calendar, specifically analyzing 'Lame Duck' sessions or early new-Congress recesses, to determine if procedural delays create a technical risk of a shutdown due to lack of legislative time.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Calculate the conditional opportunity cost for this bet: if a Shutdown occurs, capital is locked until November 2026 (House Election); if no Shutdown occurs, capital likely unlocks in February. Compare this against the risk-free yield of DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine the required risk premium needed to justify the potential 10-month lock-up period if the first condition is met.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and compare the prices of the 'Shutdown & House Winner' combo options against the standalone 'House Winner 2026' market. Mathematically isolate the implied probability of the 'Government Shutdown by Jan 31' event from these prices. Combine this with the latest bipartisan budget negotiation status to assess if there is an arbitrage opportunity or mispricing due to liquidity mismatches in this combo market.

Politics|$266.2k Vol|

Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner

Scottish Labour

Scottish National Party

Annualized yield: 20.58%

[Category 3: Rule Pitfall] Risk Premium Assessment for Rule Ambiguity: Given the critical description error stating resolution relies on seats won in the 'Welsh Parliament' (where Scottish parties cannot compete), compare the odds here with traditional sportsbooks (e.g., Ladbrokes). Calculate if the current price discount is sufficient to offset the risk of the market resolving to 'Other' or being voided due to the logical impossibility of the resolution criteria.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions for the 'Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner' market. Update the fair value assessment based on the tight polling between the SNP and Scottish Labour, and specifically evaluate the resolution dispute or void risk posed by the clerical error in the description which incorrectly references the 'Welsh Parliament' and 'Welsh government'.

[Category 1: Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest March 2026 Scottish Parliament voting intention polls (Constituency and Regional list) from sources like Ballot Box Scotland, YouGov, or Ipsos. Compare the projected seat gap between the SNP and Scottish Labour against the current implied probabilities on Polymarket to determine if the market is overestimating the incumbent's advantage or underestimating tactical voting.

[Category 3: Rule Pitfall] Risk Premium Assessment for Rule Ambiguity: Given the critical description error stating resolution relies on seats won in the 'Welsh Parliament' (where Scottish parties cannot compete), compare the odds here with traditional sportsbooks (e.g., Ladbrokes). Calculate if the current price discount is sufficient to offset the risk of the market resolving to 'Other' or being voided due to the logical impossibility of the resolution criteria.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions for the 'Scotland Parliamentary Election Winner' market. Update the fair value assessment based on the tight polling between the SNP and Scottish Labour, and specifically evaluate the resolution dispute or void risk posed by the clerical error in the description which incorrectly references the 'Welsh Parliament' and 'Welsh government'.

Trump|$244.3k Vol|

Trump out as President by June 30?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and volume (currently only 1.35) for 'Trump out by June 30,' and assess whether the 'Yes' price reflects actual political risk or just inefficient market making due to low liquidity.

World|$243.0k Vol|

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

United Russia (ER)

Civic Platform (GP)

Annualized yield: 8.26%

[Decision: Opportunity Cost] Calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital in this market until September 2026 (or potentially the September 30, 2027 resolution deadline). Compare the potential ROI of betting on the favorite ('United Russia') against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols over the same multi-year period to determine if the trade offers positive Expected Value (EV).

[Order Book & Fundamentals] Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book data for 'Russia Parliamentary Election Winner 2026'. Analyze the liquidity and bid-ask spread for 'United Russia' versus opposition parties like 'KPRF'. Based on the current level of domestic political control in Russia, assess whether the odds for the incumbent party accurately reflect their structural advantage or if there is a mispricing opportunity.

[Decision: Opportunity Cost] Calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital in this market until September 2026 (or potentially the September 30, 2027 resolution deadline). Compare the potential ROI of betting on the favorite ('United Russia') against the risk-free yield of holding stablecoins in DeFi protocols over the same multi-year period to determine if the trade offers positive Expected Value (EV).

[Order Book & Fundamentals] Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book data for 'Russia Parliamentary Election Winner 2026'. Analyze the liquidity and bid-ask spread for 'United Russia' versus opposition parties like 'KPRF'. Based on the current level of domestic political control in Russia, assess whether the odds for the incumbent party accurately reflect their structural advantage or if there is a mispricing opportunity.

Politics|$239.5k Vol|

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Won

[Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Search and analyze the outcome patterns of the 2010 and 2018 Brazil Senate elections (which also had 2/3rds of seats up for renewal) to determine whether polarized ideological parties (like PL, PT) or traditional centrist parties with strong local machinery (like MDB, PSD, PP) historically perform better in these specific large-turnover cycles.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polls and current seat distribution for the 2026 Brazil Senate election (specifically for the 2/3 seats up for renewal); visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth for major options like PL, PT, and PSD; and update the fair value assessment and long-term capital lock-up risk, considering the political leverage of the 'Centrão' bloc.

[Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Search and analyze the outcome patterns of the 2010 and 2018 Brazil Senate elections (which also had 2/3rds of seats up for renewal) to determine whether polarized ideological parties (like PL, PT) or traditional centrist parties with strong local machinery (like MDB, PSD, PP) historically perform better in these specific large-turnover cycles.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest polls and current seat distribution for the 2026 Brazil Senate election (specifically for the 2/3 seats up for renewal); visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth for major options like PL, PT, and PSD; and update the fair value assessment and long-term capital lock-up risk, considering the political leverage of the 'Centrão' bloc.

Elections|$223.3k Vol|

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Annualized yield: 4.84%

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Rule Pitfall Risk Premium Assessment: Given Alaska's 'Ranked Choice Voting (RCV)' system, where tabulation can take 15+ days if no candidate exceeds 50% in the first round (citing 2022 precedents), and the requirement for three media sources to confirm, calculate if the current price discount provides a sufficient risk premium for the potential multi-week capital lock-up.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest campaign developments for the 'Alaska Senate Election' (focusing on Mary Peltola's Jan 2026 entry and the impact of the 'Repeal RCV' ballot initiative). Analyze the current Polymarket order book depth and bid-ask spread, and update the fair value and risk assessment for Yes/No options in light of the tight polling between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Compare the macro prediction shift from 'Sabato's Crystal Ball' (downgrading the seat from 'Safe R' to 'Leans R') against specific data from the latest 'Alaska Survey Research (Ivan Moore)' poll showing Peltola leading 48% to 46%. Analyze whether market odds are pricing in this potential flip or remaining anchored to incumbent advantage.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Rule Pitfall Risk Premium Assessment: Given Alaska's 'Ranked Choice Voting (RCV)' system, where tabulation can take 15+ days if no candidate exceeds 50% in the first round (citing 2022 precedents), and the requirement for three media sources to confirm, calculate if the current price discount provides a sufficient risk premium for the potential multi-week capital lock-up.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest campaign developments for the 'Alaska Senate Election' (focusing on Mary Peltola's Jan 2026 entry and the impact of the 'Repeal RCV' ballot initiative). Analyze the current Polymarket order book depth and bid-ask spread, and update the fair value and risk assessment for Yes/No options in light of the tight polling between Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan.

World|$216.9k Vol|

Quebec General Election Winner

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Quebec General Election Winner' to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for key parties like the PQ (Parti Québécois) and CAQ. Combine this with current Quebec political sentiment (e.g., satisfaction ratings of the incumbent CAQ) to assess if current odds accurately reflect win probabilities and identify any arbitrage or risk premium opportunities due to liquidity gaps.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest seat projection models from **Qc125**, **Mainstreet Research**, or **Léger**. Specifically compare the projected seat counts for the PQ and CAQ against their implied probabilities on Polymarket, analyzing whether the market has fully priced in potential distortions of the 'First-Past-The-Post' system (e.g., winning the popular vote but losing the seat count).

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Quebec General Election Winner' to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for key parties like the PQ (Parti Québécois) and CAQ. Combine this with current Quebec political sentiment (e.g., satisfaction ratings of the incumbent CAQ) to assess if current odds accurately reflect win probabilities and identify any arbitrage or risk premium opportunities due to liquidity gaps.

World|$198.7k Vol|

Cochabamba Mayoral Election Winner (Bolivia)

José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín

Ronald Antonio Unzueta

Annualized yield: 145.5%

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the Cochabamba Mayoral Election page. Analyze if the $29k volume is overly concentrated on the favorite (e.g., Manfred Reyes Villa). Based on the bid-ask spread, assess whether the current market depth can support a slippage-free exit for a $1,000 position if breaking news hits before the March 22 election.

Politics|$197.1k Vol|

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Fernando Haddad

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Brazilian election polling data, visit the Polymarket page for the '2nd Place' market to analyze order book depth and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, potential arbitrage, and lock-up risks for key candidates like Romeu Zema and Tarcísio de Freitas.

Elections|$173.5k Vol|

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon (Ba'ath)

Lebanese Forces (LF)

Elections|$166.6k Vol|

Michigan Governor Election Winner

Arbitrage: 20¢

Annualized yield: 39.1%

[Decision] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given that capital is locked until November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the potential ROI of buying 'Democrat' or 'Republican' shares at current prices. Compare this against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if this long-term bet remains Positive EV after accounting for the opportunity cost of locked funds.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Michigan Governor Election Winner' to analyze the bid-ask spread and the depth of the $161k trading volume. Combine this with the political context of Michigan as a swing state and the 'Open Seat' dynamic (due to Governor Whitmer's term limits) to assess if current Democrat vs. Republican prices fairly reflect the election's uncertainty.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for the latest 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial hypothetical matchup data from FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, or authoritative local pollsters (e.g., EPIC-MRA, Detroit News). Compare the polling spreads of potential nominees against the implied probabilities in the Polymarket odds to identify any significant divergence between polling data and market sentiment.

[Decision] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given that capital is locked until November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the potential ROI of buying 'Democrat' or 'Republican' shares at current prices. Compare this against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., 4-5% APY) to determine if this long-term bet remains Positive EV after accounting for the opportunity cost of locked funds.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Michigan Governor Election Winner' to analyze the bid-ask spread and the depth of the $161k trading volume. Combine this with the political context of Michigan as a swing state and the 'Open Seat' dynamic (due to Governor Whitmer's term limits) to assess if current Democrat vs. Republican prices fairly reflect the election's uncertainty.

Politics|$164.1k Vol|

Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner

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