[Historical Fractal Comparison] Political Calendar Pattern Analysis: Review the time lag between the 'announcement date' and the 'actual election date' for the 2012 and 2018 Venezuela elections, and analyze if the Maduro administration historically uses specific anniversaries (e.g., Hugo Chávez's death anniversary) as a tactical moment to release election schedules.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official statements from the National Electoral Council (CNE) regarding the election calendar, analyze the liquidity depth and spread between the 'March 31' and 'December 31' options on Polymarket, and assess if the market is overpricing the risk of the 'Barbados Agreement' negotiations collapsing.

Calculate the opportunity cost of capital for this event: If no candidate achieves a majority (>50%) on June 2, 2026, leading to a November runoff, is the potential ROI sufficient to justify locking up funds for an additional 5 months compared to risk-free DeFi yields?

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for the 'Los Angeles Mayoral Election 2026' market, specifically analyzing the liquidity depth for incumbent Karen Bass versus challengers like Rick Caruso, and update the risk assessment based on the current $53k trading volume.

[General] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize a brief plan: purely passive limit order entry on the favorite, strictly small position size due to liquidity, and monitoring local press for council coalition news.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for 'Next Toulouse Mayor'; given the extremely low volume ($31.24), determine if there are any active asks for Jean-Luc Moudenc or François Piquemal, or if the market is currently untradeable.

[Rule Pitfall] North Atlantic Seats & Tie-Breaker Risk: Given the market rule stating ties are broken by 'vote count' then 'alphabetical order', research how the 4 North Atlantic seats (Faroe Islands & Greenland) are counted. Since these seats go to specific regional parties (e.g., Inuit Ataqatigiit), will they be aggregated into their Danish sister parties' totals for this market? If the top two Danish parties are extremely close in seat count, could the exclusion or inclusion of these 4 seats become a 'black swan' event determining the 'party with the greatest number of seats'?

[Mandatory Task] Denmark Election Market Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the current odds and order book depth for major parties like the 'Social Democrats' and 'Liberal Alliance'. Combine this with the latest Danish polling data (e.g., Voxmeter or Epinion) to assess if the prices reflect the true race, specifically considering the potential impact of Faroese and Greenlandic seats on the final majority, and identify any arbitrage opportunities arising from low liquidity ($210.8 volume).

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the settlement date is November 2026 (over 1.5 years of lock-up), compare the implied return of the current odds against the risk-free annualized yield of US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoins (e.g., 4-5%) to calculate if the bet still holds positive real Expected Value after deducting the cost of capital.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity depth and bid-ask spread for the 'Not Extended & Democratic Party' vs. 'Not Extended & Republican Party' options; simultaneously compare these odds with the standalone 'ACA Extension 2025' and 'House Election 2026' markets to identify any pricing discrepancies or arbitrage opportunities.

[Category 2: Analysis] Potential Catalyst & Legal Risk Prediction: Given the volatile political environment in Bolivia, analyze potential catalysts within the next 48 hours to a week that could trigger sharp price volatility. Specifically, focus on Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) rulings regarding candidate eligibility (e.g., for Camacho) or local strikes in Santa Cruz, and assess how these events might impact the winning probability of the 'Other' option.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, considering the volume of approximately $88k, analyze the order book depth and spread for the 'Santa Cruz Governor Election'. Evaluate the bid/ask support for leading candidates like Guido Eduardo Nayar and Otto Ritter, and assess based on user discussions whether current prices reflect local Bolivian political dynamics or if there are pricing inefficiencies due to low liquidity.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] Historical Fractal Comparison: Search for the actual duration between the 'General Election day' and the 'Official selection of Prime Minister' in the 2019 and 2023 Thai elections (which took months). Compare these historical delays with the current remaining window of less than 30 days. Analyze the statistical probability of a quick resolution this month, considering the complexity of coalition bargaining, even if the Senate's power to vote for the PM has expired.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest results and coalition-building progress of the Jan/Feb 2026 Thai general election. Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spread (Volume: 113k). Assess whether the current odds fully reflect the difficulty of finalizing a PM by the March 31 deadline, and specifically if there is an arbitrage opportunity where the 'No' side is undervalued due to potential political deadlocks in the remaining 30 days.

[General] DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) Timeline: For this long-term event, provide a DCA plan based on quarterly polling release dates to smooth out volatility risk throughout the election cycle.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for 'Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)' vs 'Sweden Democrats (SD)', and update the assessment of whether current odds fairly reflect polling data given the long horizon to the 2026 election.

[Category 3: General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Given the generally high accuracy of German state polls but the risk of long-term macro changes by 2026, suggest a portfolio allocation using the Kelly Criterion. What fractional Kelly (e.g., Kelly/4) is appropriate for such a long-duration political event?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the Rheinland-Pfalz election to analyze the order book and odds distribution for the '2nd Place' market. Does the market pricing reflect a binary race between CDU and SPD for 1st/2nd, or is there priced-in risk of AfD surging to 2nd? Assess slippage risk for large positions based on current depth.

[General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Qualitatively analyze the risk-reward of shorting 'Click Bishop' (8.9%). Considering his high probability of primary elimination, is this a 'picking up pennies' strategy, or does a tail risk of RCV resurrection exist?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book showing Bernadette Wilson (31%) and Tom Begich (27%) leading, compare this with external polling (e.g., Alaska Survey Research showing Peltola as a frontrunner), and analyze whether the market is overvaluing 'grassroots conservative' candidates while underpricing the risk of Tom Begich's pledge to drop out if Peltola runs.